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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prospects for Japanese market 2021

y-koron said:

Nintendo will be under pressure for next-gen hardware from mismatch to performance against other consoles

No, they won't.

The Switch audience, especially in Japan, doesn't care about it being graphically competitive. It won't suffer from this any more than DS suffered from being massively less powerful than PS3/360.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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all that extra horsepower won't matter if devs don't use it.
and in japan's case the ps5's specs are overkill for most people



Hardware sales and software sales(Physical) for Japan 2021

NSW - 5 million units
PS5 - 1.3 million units
PS4 - 300K units
XSX/S - 100K units

Top 10 best selling software(physical)

1. Monster Hunter Rise - 3.8 million units
2. New Pokemon Remake - 2.6 million units
3. Animal Crossing New Horizons - 1.5 million units
4. Zelda BOTW 2 - 1.2 million units
5. Momotaro Dentetsu - 1 million units
6. Super Mario 3D World - 950K units
7. RFA 850K units
8. MK8D - 650K units
9. Minecraft - 500K units
10. Super Mario Party 400K units



Darwinianevolution said:
y-koron said:

No, big releases aren't planned this year for PS4, too. And not a big surprise that PS5 suffers lack of software. SIE doesn't have enough development capacity and franchises that can support the launch of their hardware.

That's the thing, though. You'd think having a very light lineup with barely any 1st party would have made people mad, but I don't stop hearing about how great the PS5 launch was, and it's puzzling. The XBOne X seems to have the same problem as well, and likewise I keep hearing about how great its launch was. What was different between the PS4/XBOne launch and this ones?

First, in Japan, real demand of PS5 is still in the dark due to too many resellers include them for China. Especially, last ones makes us difficult to estimate the PS5's market size. Anyway, in Japan, it is said to be half serious that PS5 is sold by people not to play the game but only to resell.

Next, in Japan, it's said that MS isn't motivated for console at all. Basically situation of XBox One Series X is just worse than that of PS5's. In fact, I haven't never seen XBox series X was sold even in Christmas and New year markets.

Last edited by y-koron - on 04 January 2021

If you need something about Japanese market from the perspective of Japanese, please contact me.

curl-6 said:
y-koron said:

Nintendo will be under pressure for next-gen hardware from mismatch to performance against other consoles

No, they won't.

The Switch audience, especially in Japan, doesn't care about it being graphically competitive. It won't suffer from this any more than DS suffered from being massively less powerful than PS3/360.

Nintendo own is no problem for performance of Switch, but a big problem for third parties. FF and Resident Evil are planed to release for PS5 and won't move to Switch because Switch doesn't have enough performance for their devs. At now, Nintendo has a big market, but it is unsteady as the Wii used to be. A next challenge for more big and stable market is taking in major franchises.



If you need something about Japanese market from the perspective of Japanese, please contact me.

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y-koron said:
curl-6 said:

No, they won't.

The Switch audience, especially in Japan, doesn't care about it being graphically competitive. It won't suffer from this any more than DS suffered from being massively less powerful than PS3/360.

Nintendo own is no problem for performance of Switch, but a big problem for third parties. FF and Resident Evil are planed to release for PS5 and won't move to Switch because Switch doesn't have enough performance for their devs. At now, Nintendo has a big market, but it is unsteady as the Wii used to be. A next challenge for more big and stable market is taking in major franchises.

Nintendo doesn't need the big AAA games to succeed, the Switch proves that already. It will get by just fine on games like Monster Hunter Rise/Stories 2, Rune Factory 5, Momotaro, Shin Megami Tensei 5, and an RE game of its own according to the guy who correctly leaked MH Rise. For mid tier Japanese devs, it doesn't make any sense to pursue high end PS5 exclusives when the console will never have as big a base there as the Switch.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 04 January 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

y-koron said:
curl-6 said:

No, they won't.

The Switch audience, especially in Japan, doesn't care about it being graphically competitive. It won't suffer from this any more than DS suffered from being massively less powerful than PS3/360.

Nintendo own is no problem for performance of Switch, but a big problem for third parties. FF and Resident Evil are planed to release for PS5 and won't move to Switch because Switch doesn't have enough performance for their devs. At now, Nintendo has a big market, but it is unsteady as the Wii used to be. A next challenge for more big and stable market is taking in major franchises.

the switch is plently powerful enough if you know what you are doing...

but a lot of modern devs get by by brute forcing the issue instead of developing a creative way to design a game around a console's specs.



y-koron said:
curl-6 said:

No, they won't.

The Switch audience, especially in Japan, doesn't care about it being graphically competitive. It won't suffer from this any more than DS suffered from being massively less powerful than PS3/360.

Nintendo own is no problem for performance of Switch, but a big problem for third parties. FF and Resident Evil are planed to release for PS5 and won't move to Switch because Switch doesn't have enough performance for their devs. At now, Nintendo has a big market, but it is unsteady as the Wii used to be. A next challenge for more big and stable market is taking in major franchises.

It's a problem for those who don't want to put their games on Switch, so not an actual problem.



Yep Resident Evil and Final Fantasy becoming irrelevant in Japan isn't a problem Nintendo needs to solve, its up to Square, Capcom, Bandai, Sega etc to treat the market leader properly unless they want to fade into irrelevance in Japan. With very little 3rd Party support Switch had

- the 3rd Best year for a Hardware platform in the history of the Japanese market

- Animal Crossing: New Horizon is already the best selling game of all time in Japan

- Minecraft is the first Western third party game guaranteed to surpass 2 million physical in Japan

- Konami just launched what will end up becoming their best selling game of all time


I don't really see any problems for Nintendo in 2021



y-koron said:
curl-6 said:

No, they won't.

The Switch audience, especially in Japan, doesn't care about it being graphically competitive. It won't suffer from this any more than DS suffered from being massively less powerful than PS3/360.

Nintendo own is no problem for performance of Switch, but a big problem for third parties. FF and Resident Evil are planed to release for PS5 and won't move to Switch because Switch doesn't have enough performance for their devs. At now, Nintendo has a big market, but it is unsteady as the Wii used to be. A next challenge for more big and stable market is taking in major franchises.

Third party support for the Wii and Switch isn't even remotely similar, so the unsteadiness you allude to isn't real.

You don't need to act as if Nintendo and Sony were facing pressure and problems of similar scale. It doesn't make you look biased if you say that Nintendo is in a much, much better spot, because that's the reality of things.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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