Top 10 3rd Party Games PS4/NSW
- [PS4] Monster Hunter: World (Capcom) - 2.564.928
- [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.700.000*
- [PS4] Dragon Quest XI (Square Enix) - 1.368.698
- [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.231.207*
- [PS4] Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) - 1.042.951
- [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 1.000.000*
- [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix) - 861.226
- [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V (Take Two) - 750.000*
- [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 575.000*
- [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne (Capcom) - 575.000*
*Final Week of the Year Estimation
PS4 TOTAL: 8.162.803
NSW TOTAL: 3.506.207
Momotaro is going to overtake the PS4 Version of DQXI, and will likely surpass 2 million physical by the time Monster Hunter Rise launches. The game has had an insane debut and there can be no doubt that it will surpass 3 million in Japan eventually. It's basically the biggest break-out since Yo-Kai Watch on the 3DS, wonder how high it can get eventually.
Minecraft will also catch up to Monster Hunter:World by the end of 2021 and continue to sell as long as there are new Switch buyers, doesn't seem the game is losing any popularity as it's probably the most consistent game on the Switch. Every-time there is a big week for the console Minecraft gets a bump, Microsoft definitely made a very strong global acquisition and it continues to pay-off.
DQXIS legs will probably continue long enough for the game to reach 900K since I don't think Square is revealing XII next year, a spin-off or two are highly likely, I think DQH3, DQB3 or DQM4 would definitely have the potential of surpassing 1 million on the Switch. I don't quite know if Bravely 2 has the same potential, WoM is going to play a key role. So overall I'm not really worried for Square they have enough ability and big franchises to at least match their 3DS output on the Switch.
Their main problem is around PS exclusive franchises. We shall see how things play out for FFXVI, but the hope rests in the West if it's a PS5 exclusive. A PS5 exclusive in Japan in 2021 would mean FFXVI would struggle to sell 300K, Square really need to launch a PS4 version if they want to limit the decline of the franchise in their home land. But even with a PS5/PS4 version, I don't see FFXVI surpassing 800K that's about the maximum ceiling I would give to physical sales.
Bandai is narrowly missing out on the Top 10 with Taiko and Fishing Spirits.
- Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 545.603
- Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco) - 531.828
Fishing Spirits will continue to sell well into next year, but for Taiko I'm unsure if RAP might impact the legs long-term.
More importantly for Bandai is the lack of any announcements that could sell beyond 500K, their strategy in 2020 has lead to around 50% decline YoY in Japan. Overall if they continue with the same strategy in 2021, their competitors will fill the void left and they might start facing certain risks on their home market.
Marvelous are in a marvelous position, they have their first evergreen, Sakuna has alluded by returning to the chart every time there is enough stock for the game. It even returned to the Taiwan Top 5 this is widespread through-out Asia. Don't be surprised if Sakuna ends up far exceeding the launch sales on the Switch, if the game continues to receive updates and physical stock - I imagine it can eventually sell 1 million in Japan.
With Olive Town & Rune Factory 5, they are potentially looking at exponential growth in 2021 on the back of just those three games. It's all about execution and WoM, but I've said it before but I really have a strong feeling that Olive Town & Rune Factory 5 can be break-out hits for those respective franchises. Very soon we will turn our focus on the Olive Town, and I won't be surprised if the game has a unprecedented growth.
One final thing I'm wondering is how Hollow Knight: SilkSong, Human Fall Flat 2 or Overcooked 3 can perform as physical game in Japan published by Nintendo or a Japanese 3rd Party with the needed marketing push. Human Fall Flat is already over 100K physical and probably a million selling franchise in Japan across Switch/PS4. It's insane but indies like TeamCherry have a chance to sell 300K+ in Japan. Overall Nintendo has been pushing indies in Japan and doing the same in the rest of World. Hades hasn't exited the Top 5 in South Korea, Among Us is the Top selling game in Japan etc. When talking about 3rd Party sales indie sales are more important to Nintendo than any single other 3rd Party publisher. By embracing talented creators, that in turn choose to target the platform - Nintendo is developing relationships which will probably stand the test of time for their audience as well. To me SilkSong, Among Us & Hades are the perfect demonstration of the fact. Switch was suddenly & to no one's surprise the de-facto console for those games, yet a lot more is going on behind the scene in the past few years. As I eluded Nintendo changed their approach to smaller creators around 2015-2016 and have been building upon those relationships in the past few years, the titles that resonated the most were also pushed the most within their social media and other marketing actives. In a few years audience in East Asia is more likely to be familiar with Hollow Knight rather than Elden Ring or Bloodborne simply because PlayStation has become irrelevant in the market.
Overall the Wii U disaster definitely taught Nintendo lessons and the Switch's success has proven how important it is to be the leading platform for Indie content behind only Valve. When we look at the physical charts in Japan this is the major thing we are missing, indies from all over the World have been made popular in places like Japan and Nintendo providing a potential audience of 30 million. This is a fantastic new market which indies didn't have access too before because PCs are not part of everyday life in Japan. Now we see that most of the major indie titles focus on getting localized for multiple languages including Japanese prior to launch. This is a crucial factor in their success and growth and neither Sony, Microsoft or Valve can offer the same opportunities to indie developers. This is why I don't think the lack of Japanese 3rd Party support on the Switch has impacted it negatively.
2021 is the year where we would see both Hardware and 3rd Party Software at it's full potential - so look forward to it, I think we would see multiple 3rd Party games sale above 1 million, Monster Hunter Rise will become the best selling non-Nintendo or Pokemon game of all time and hardware will surpass 2020.