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Forums - Sales Discussion - Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Blood_Tears said:
sales2099 said:

Nobody said double digits. Like a extra percentage point or two...progress :)

The Japanese support in Japan specifically has been very poor this gen and I don't think Tango is going to change that. A lot of Japanese devs don't even release the Xbox sku over there on multiplat games. 

The Series X+S will likely sell less than X1 in Japan over all. Selling out a low stock shipment for launch day on Amazon Japan won't change much and Gamepass for Japanese heavy hitters like KH, FF or DQ comes years after the initial Japanese release. I would be very surprised if they even sell 75k there for the Series family when it's all said and done. That's not progress. 

If PS5 sales remain flat or even decline relative to PS4 and Xbox Series sales somehow to remain on par with Xbox One, then yes it’s a minuscule marketshare gain. Cmon I was joking here saying 1-2% gen over gen gain. Absolute peanuts and even that somehow seems unacceptable. O well 



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70% PS5
30% Xbox



TheBraveGallade said:
xbox will probably gain market 'share' in japan vs PS, if only because the ps5 is just GOING to flat out sell less then the ps4 there, due to the switch being an absolute dominant force that probably can't be lodged out of its current position, since it basically combined the market share and appeal of the 3ds/vita/wiiU, all three of which sold SUBSTANTIALLY better in japan VS other regions while the ps4 underperformed.

I thought about this, that Xbox will gain market share, purely because

a) The console market shrinking
b) PS5 is very large and Japan does not like big gadgets,
c) Xbox share is minuscule and the only way from there is UP;

However, I decided to not go in that direction in my estimates because

a) Japan console market is shrinking and its effects globally are increasingly smaller,
b) Even if people swing in favor of Xbox, it will be a minor one; XBS will DEFINITELY sell way less than X360 (1.65 mil), and more than XB1 (110+ K).

My best bet is that XBS will sell less than a million in Japan, and in the overall scheme of things, assuming a sales equivalence with the 8th generation, whether XBS sells 54 or 55 million hardly makes a difference. So I decided to keep the formula for swinging factor unchanged for Japan (which is negligible but positive). I am pretty sure, there will be several sub-regional deviations in my estimates but in the grand scheme of things, things tend to cancel each other out, and smooth things over.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Blood_Tears said:
Xbox to gain market share in Japan against PS? A little to much optimism there. lol

Well technically yes, it will gain market share, but in realistic numbers, it hardly matters. In my analysis, it suggests a 0.01% increase in market share (from 1.40% to 1.41%). However, this is just analytics. In reality the increase might be much larger since the market share is too tiny to begin with. In any case, X360 levels are a dream for XBS, which will be somewhat greater than XB1 levels.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Blood_Tears said:
sales2099 said:

Nobody said double digits. Like a extra percentage point or two...progress :)

The Japanese support in Japan specifically has been very poor this gen and I don't think Tango is going to change that. A lot of Japanese devs don't even release the Xbox sku over there on multiplat games. 

The Series X+S will likely sell less than X1 in Japan over all. Selling out a low stock shipment for launch day on Amazon Japan won't change much and Gamepass for Japanese heavy hitters like KH, FF or DQ comes years after the initial Japanese release. I would be very surprised if they even sell 75k there for the Series family when it's all said and done. That's not progress. 

Those who say that Xbox will win some marketshare in Japan are right though. It's not optimism, it's common sense. You know how they'll do it. Even in worst case scenario, that you mention - if they just sell 75k. Okay, that's just around 30-40k loss compared to what they have this gen. But PS5 is very likely to sell a couple millions less than PS4 did. And that's where marketshare gain comes for Xbox. If you lose way less than your rival, you get some marketshare back



 

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I think people are underestimating Ps5 and Overestimating X Series S/X.

Here in Australia as an example, two weeks before launch there are still plenty of X Series S stock.
PS5 Normal/Digital is sold out until mid/late 2021 and whilst Series X went sold out after a few hours, there are some “reports” claiming that there were around 500 PS5 units allocated in each EB Games Store against around 25-30 Series X.

Obviously this has to be taken with a grain of salt.



Good analysis, clearly you have done allot of thinking and gathering of information to formulate your predictions and spent the time and effort to showcase that.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

derpysquirtle64 said:
Blood_Tears said:

The Japanese support in Japan specifically has been very poor this gen and I don't think Tango is going to change that. A lot of Japanese devs don't even release the Xbox sku over there on multiplat games. 

The Series X+S will likely sell less than X1 in Japan over all. Selling out a low stock shipment for launch day on Amazon Japan won't change much and Gamepass for Japanese heavy hitters like KH, FF or DQ comes years after the initial Japanese release. I would be very surprised if they even sell 75k there for the Series family when it's all said and done. That's not progress. 

Those who say that Xbox will win some marketshare in Japan are right though. It's not optimism, it's common sense. You know how they'll do it. Even in worst case scenario, that you mention - if they just sell 75k. Okay, that's just around 30-40k loss compared to what they have this gen. But PS5 is very likely to sell a couple millions less than PS4 did. And that's where marketshare gain comes for Xbox. If you lose way less than your rival, you get some marketshare back

pretty much.

The only way the ps5 sells as much as the ps4 in japan is if they pull out ALL the stops to make it appealing to japan, which i don't see them doing as japanese market trends are opposite to what appealing to the mainstream west is.

and plus, ps4 honestly won by default last gen.



TheBraveGallade said:
derpysquirtle64 said:

Those who say that Xbox will win some marketshare in Japan are right though. It's not optimism, it's common sense. You know how they'll do it. Even in worst case scenario, that you mention - if they just sell 75k. Okay, that's just around 30-40k loss compared to what they have this gen. But PS5 is very likely to sell a couple millions less than PS4 did. And that's where marketshare gain comes for Xbox. If you lose way less than your rival, you get some marketshare back

pretty much.

The only way the ps5 sells as much as the ps4 in japan is if they pull out ALL the stops to make it appealing to japan, which i don't see them doing as japanese market trends are opposite to what appealing to the mainstream west is.

and plus, ps4 honestly won by default last gen.

I would say its more to do with the censorship craazy Sony is going with. The japanesse hate that shit and it definetly shows in their purchasing habits. Be it games, anime and what ever else. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

TheBraveGallade said:
derpysquirtle64 said:

Those who say that Xbox will win some marketshare in Japan are right though. It's not optimism, it's common sense. You know how they'll do it. Even in worst case scenario, that you mention - if they just sell 75k. Okay, that's just around 30-40k loss compared to what they have this gen. But PS5 is very likely to sell a couple millions less than PS4 did. And that's where marketshare gain comes for Xbox. If you lose way less than your rival, you get some marketshare back

pretty much.

The only way the ps5 sells as much as the ps4 in japan is if they pull out ALL the stops to make it appealing to japan, which i don't see them doing as japanese market trends are opposite to what appealing to the mainstream west is.

and plus, ps4 honestly won by default last gen.

It's also very huge, way bigger than even original Xbox which size is always being brought up as one of the reasons why it didn't do well in Japan.