Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

[freedquaker]

TheBraveGallade said:
xbox will probably gain market 'share' in japan vs PS, if only because the ps5 is just GOING to flat out sell less then the ps4 there, due to the switch being an absolute dominant force that probably can't be lodged out of its current position, since it basically combined the market share and appeal of the 3ds/vita/wiiU, all three of which sold SUBSTANTIALLY better in japan VS other regions while the ps4 underperformed.

I thought about this, that Xbox will gain market share, purely because

a) The console market shrinking
b) PS5 is very large and Japan does not like big gadgets,
c) Xbox share is minuscule and the only way from there is UP;

However, I decided to not go in that direction in my estimates because

a) Japan console market is shrinking and its effects globally are increasingly smaller,
b) Even if people swing in favor of Xbox, it will be a minor one; XBS will DEFINITELY sell way less than X360 (1.65 mil), and more than XB1 (110+ K).

My best bet is that XBS will sell less than a million in Japan, and in the overall scheme of things, assuming a sales equivalence with the 8th generation, whether XBS sells 54 or 55 million hardly makes a difference. So I decided to keep the formula for swinging factor unchanged for Japan (which is negligible but positive). I am pretty sure, there will be several sub-regional deviations in my estimates but in the grand scheme of things, things tend to cancel each other out, and smooth things over.