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Forums - Sales Discussion - Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

I think in America Playstation will win again similar fashion as the PS4, where it will be a narrow victory. Some people believe Xbox with win in America but based off of what I am seeing on data and small sample polls most Americans seem to be favoring the PS5 over the Xbox SX, I know it's just a small sample size, but usually those polls could give a good indicator of what the casual market is thinking as a whole. It's gonna be close but I expect PS5 to win again in NA.

In Europe Playstation will blow Xbox out the water in terms of sales, maybe slightly closer since Xbox is now starting the gen off with the price advantage but there simply isn't enough marketing from Microsoft in Europe to put much of a noticeable dent to the market share in Europe.

Japan should be slightly better this time for the Xbox since the Xbox Series S is a small console which appeals more towards Japanese consumers who tend to live in smaller areas and maybe the emergence of Xcloud grow Xbox's market share in Japan, where Japanese consumers are more into portable gaming and where internet speeds are fast enough for cloud gaming. Maybe if Microsoft somehow manages to make Xcloud big in Japan it could threaten Playstation's market share in Japan and I wouldn't put it past Microsoft to make Xcloud big over there. However, as of now it seems unlikely. So while I do believe Xbox SX will do better in Japan, it still should be no where close to Playstation. But I wouldn't say Japan matters that much anymore for either company since the home console market is for the most part virtually dead in Japan and Japan's sales won't make much of an affect to the worldwide sales total of either console.

In the rest of the world, Playstation 5 again should have a pretty sizable lead over Xbox SSX. Mainly due to Sony's marketing all across other regions while Microsoft doesn't market much outside of English-speaking countries and I doesn't seems to care about beating Sony in sales figures anymore to change that. However, if what people in the thread above me say is true that Xbox games are cheaper in the ROW, maybe Xbox could regain smoe market sure in those regions. However, I still think Playstation will win pretty easily.

So worldwide, I agree that this gen in terms of sales will be very similar to the last. I expect both Playstation and Xbox to sell even more this gen but market share to remain very similar.
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Blood_Tears said:
Xbox to gain market share in Japan against PS? A little to much optimism there. lol

Nobody said double digits. Like a extra percentage point or two...progress :)



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

javi741 said:
I think in America Playstation will win again similar fashion as the PS4, where it will be a narrow victory. Some people believe Xbox with win in America but based off of what I am seeing on data and small sample polls most Americans seem to be favoring the PS5 over the Xbox SX, I know it's just a small sample size, but usually those polls could give a good indicator of what the casual market is thinking as a whole. It's gonna be close but I expect PS5 to win again in NA.

In Europe Playstation will blow Xbox out the water in terms of sales, maybe slightly closer since Xbox is now starting the gen off with the price advantage but there simply isn't enough marketing from Microsoft in Europe to put much of a noticeable dent to the market share in Europe.

Japan should be slightly better this time for the Xbox since the Xbox Series S is a small console which appeals more towards Japanese consumers who tend to live in smaller areas and maybe the emergence of Xcloud grow Xbox's market share in Japan, where Japanese consumers are more into portable gaming and where internet speeds are fast enough for cloud gaming. Maybe if Microsoft somehow manages to make Xcloud big in Japan it could threaten Playstation's market share in Japan and I wouldn't put it past Microsoft to make Xcloud big over there. However, as of now it seems unlikely. So while I do believe Xbox SX will do better in Japan, it still should be no where close to Playstation. But I wouldn't say Japan matters that much anymore for either company since the home console market is for the most part virtually dead in Japan and Japan's sales won't make much of an affect to the worldwide sales total of either console.

In the rest of the world, Playstation 5 again should have a pretty sizable lead over Xbox SSX. Mainly due to Sony's marketing all across other regions while Microsoft doesn't market much outside of English-speaking countries and I doesn't seems to care about beating Sony in sales figures anymore to change that. However, if what people in the thread above me say is true that Xbox games are cheaper in the ROW, maybe Xbox could regain smoe market sure in those regions. However, I still think Playstation will win pretty easily.

So worldwide, I agree that this gen in terms of sales will be very similar to the last. I expect both Playstation and Xbox to sell even more this gen but market share to remain very similar.
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Well what about their FPS and WRPG upcoming catalog? Very American/western in appeal, probably the most appeal out of any country that likes both genres. And genres Sony largely wont touch aside from COD exclusive content they keep getting. It’s an edge I’m sure MS will exploit. 

Doom, Wolfenstein, Elder Scrolls 6, Starfield, Halo, Fable, Avowed, etc. It can make a difference. 



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

I think it's going to be closer than most think, MS isn't fooling around this gen, just look at the Bethesda deal, if they actually make their games exclusive to the Xbox ecosystem it will be huge for Xbox console sales, and there are still more Xbox studio acquisitions to come according to most insiders. They also have the cheapest console this gen which is sure to do well with casuals, as well as parents and grandparents doing Christmas shopping each Holiday season this gen. My rough predictions at present, assuming Bethesda exclusivity:

North America- 61:39 in favor of Xbox (This has always been Xbox's strongest market, Xbox tends to sell well in both Mexico and US, decently in Canada. I think they will reclaim the lead here thanks to a combination of many factors, dramatically improved 1st party, the value of being able to play all Xbox 1st party games on Gamepass compared to Sony charging $70 for their exclusives, the appeal of the $300 Series S with casuals, likely Bethesda exclusivity on Xbox)

Europe- 58:42 in favor of PS5 (Has always been Sony's strongest market and that will remain true, though I do think that Xbox can be about as successful as 360 was in Europe, and 360 had 42% marketshare there)

Japan- 95:5 in favor of PS5 (I don't see MS making the moves they need to make for Xbox Series to be as successful in Japan as 360 was, but they are making moves that should allow Xbox Series to be more successful than XB1 was. Meanwhile, Sony's Japan sales have been dwindling the last 2 gens, and Switch is utterly dominant there currently. I'm expecting something like 8m PS5, 400K Xbox Series lifetime in Japan)

Rest of the World- 55:45 in favor of PS5 (The gap here was relatively close in gen 7, with 360 getting about 42% marketshare compared to PS3, though Xbox One fell to 25% in this category. I see major potential for growth in this category for Xbox, the value of Gamepass could be huge in South America and Australia due to how expensive games are in those regions, if MS plays their cards right they can exceed the marketshare of 360 in ROW, though Sony's strength in non Japan Asian countries and larger worldwide brand recognition will still give them the edge overall in this category I think)

Worldwide- 56:44 in favor of PS5 (Overall I'm expecting something like 90m Xbox and 115m PS5 next gen personally).

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 26 October 2020

Game Pass and ZeniMax will give much boost to Xbox on this generation.

My market share estimates:

PS5: 60%
XSX|S: 40%



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freedquaker said:


4) I estimated PS4 to sell a minimum of 122 million by the end of 2020.

Explain to me how the PS4 could do 8M in 2 months, knowing that it is dying, that the Switch is choking it and that the PS5 is going to finish it ?

Wman1996 said:
It's hard to say overall market share without Nintendo. But they're basically in the middle of generations/an oddity because Switch is a hybrid. PS5 and Xbox Series S/X will compete with Switch and Switch 2.

But if you're saying just the market share between the two of them, here's my pre-release prediction.
Xbox Series S/X: 55 million units (34.38%)
PS5: 105 million units (65.62%)

Some people expect a closer race than that, I don't. PlayStation is a more dominant brand than Xbox, especially in Europe and Japan. And it has exclusives, even if they're shrinking in number.

That's a closer ratio than their predecessors have currently
Xbox One: 48.4 million (29.82%)
PS4: 113.9 million (70.18%)

I do not have a cleat idea about the SALES NUMBERS but my MARKET SHARE estimates tend to agree with yours, basically 1 to 2 (globally) and a possible US lead by Xbox.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

VanillaWare said:
freedquaker said:


4) I estimated PS4 to sell a minimum of 122 million by the end of 2020.

Explain to me how the PS4 could do 8M in 2 months, knowing that it is dying, that the Switch is choking it and that the PS5 is going to finish it ?

I cannot explain it because it is THE ONLY inaccurate part of my estimations from way back in 2013, which is admittedly an overestimation by 5-10% by the end of 2020. I had predicted a minimum of 122 million, where the sales currently stand at 114 million (about 7% over estimation currently). PS4 will probably close the year with less than 120 million, so I was off at least by few percentage points, but given that this is a 7 year estimate into the future, and all the abnormalities around the world, I'd say it was still a very sound one. I was spot on about the Xbox sales though :)



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Without huge drop price, it's impossible for me to imagine the PS4 makes more than 118M.



sales2099 said:
Blood_Tears said:
Xbox to gain market share in Japan against PS? A little to much optimism there. lol

Nobody said double digits. Like a extra percentage point or two...progress :)

The Japanese support in Japan specifically has been very poor this gen and I don't think Tango is going to change that. A lot of Japanese devs don't even release the Xbox sku over there on multiplat games. 

The Series X+S will likely sell less than X1 in Japan over all. Selling out a low stock shipment for launch day on Amazon Japan won't change much and Gamepass for Japanese heavy hitters like KH, FF or DQ comes years after the initial Japanese release. I would be very surprised if they even sell 75k there for the Series family when it's all said and done. That's not progress.