I voted for 30-32 mil, probably closer to the high end.

Bonus: I remeber that tbone predicted shorty after the New Horizons launch that it would sell a ludicrous 12 mil lifetime in Japan, and while I also expected it to dethrone Red and Blue at the time, I didn't think it was possible for it to do so to quite that extent. But since AC ended up shipping over 7 mil in just the first two quarters... Yea, it'll get there.

I'm pretty sure it will break the 30M mark. How far it will go from there is open for debate however.

2020 has shown that it is impossible to accurately predict the actions of a large group of people, so we should probably stop doing that altogether.

I predict 32-34m for Smash Bros.

Bonus: I don't think I've been seriously tripped up by tbone51 "yet". (I figure it's only a matter of time though.) The closest I've come is saying "I don't know" on a bold prediction that does come true. There are a couple I've said he is too bold, but I don't think any of those have snagged me yet. (I think he predicted something like 15m for Smash before the end of 2018. That one I said is too bold.) I was dead wrong about Pokemon outselling Animal Crossing, but that wasn't a tbone51 prediction.

It'll hit 30M. So I'll vote 30-32, which is insane, I wouldn't have guessed that it would sell so much. But that goes for a lot of games on Switch. I dread to see the end result of Mario Kart 8 and Animal Crossing.

Bonus: Yeah. It's easy to handily dismiss tbone's claims, but it also seems easy for him to be right. I've become weary to bet against his predictions; he's the opposite of Pachter or that Japanese dude that says 300M for PS5. tbone seems to be in the possession of an actual crystal ball.

I went with 30-31.9m. With DLC still coming out for at least a year (considering the pace of releases) it should keep selling steady for a while.

Bonus: I've been skeptical of tbone's predictions many times in the past, nowadays I'm more inclined to believe he's right when he goes bold.

30 million.

There's still more DLC coming and more new Switch owners to buy the game.

Wow

But wait there's more!

30 million at this rate.

I voted 36 - 37.9. Assuming Switch is replaced in Spring 2024, that gives Smash 15 more quarters to sell before Switch is no longer the primary Nintendo system. With overall Switch sales going crazy this year, and likely continuing in large degree next year I expect Smash sales to average above 1mil per quarter in non holiday quarters for the next year, and of course the holiday quarters will be far higher. After that I think it will still average 1mil per quarter when you include holiday quarters until maybe very late in Switch's life. So I could see it being above 35 million by the time the Switch is replaced, and then racking up a couple more million in retirement. So actually I probably should have chosen 38-40 million, but I decided to be a little conservative. Breaking 40 million is not out of the question. I'd be surprised if it does less than 35 mil, not surprised at all if it goes over 40 mil.