A hypothetical Switch Home could cost $200, there is no way it would be less than that. Talking about $100 or $150 Switch Home is just absurd come on guys! Maybe it could be that price in 2024 but it's not gonna launch at that price. Nintendo isn't gonna sell these things under cost just to get more buyers!

If for example, the new model coming out next year turned out to be a Switch Home, with upgraded specs to run 4k with DLSS and a bigger harddrive, with a pro controller, they'd sell that either at $200 or $250. $200 I'm sure would put them a bit in profit, but $250 would probably be considered good by consumers, as its $50 cheaper than Xbox Series S, but plays Switch games in 4k while XSS doesn't even do 4k, so that'd be impressive compared to competition. And that way they could always drops the price down to $200 like a year later to coincide with price drops on the other models.

If 2021 new model is Switch Home but it's just slightly beefed up compared to other models, maybe just resolving frame rate and resolution issues in games that have them, but doesn't do 4k DLSS or anything, I could see that going for $200, but not less, at launch. It would make sense that Lite and Home both sell for $200 if Home is only a very slight upgrade in specs, while the fully featured hybrid is the premium model.

Switch Home could also be a later model like in early 2023 if the 2021 new model is a premium Hybrid model. Though I think the above price considerations still apply at that point though they might be $50 less, so $150-$200 in 2023 if it's essentially a home version of original hybrid, and $200-$250 in 2023 if its a home version of some beefed up premium 2021 hybrid. If Switch Home 2023 launches to match the specs of the 2021 premium DLSS 4k hybrid model, I could see Lite being $150 at that point, OG hybrid no longer in production and Premium Hybrid selling at $250 by then, and an equivalent Switch Home (maybe with just more storage) launching at perhaps $200 at that point.

This thread is long enough I must be the third guy to say this, but I think Switch is in for a tough 2021 unless they ramp up the games. No more stuck at home bonus sales after summer 2021 and vaccines start coming out.

It needs Chrono Trigger, period.

Okey that's a personal wish, but I do think a game like CT will boost switch sales.

I think the switch might reach that milestone eventually if Nintendo doesn't kill it off. It also depends on how fast or slow the new consoles become more popular, I think the Switch could also use some mainstream exclusive first person and sports games. That could seal the deal.

To reach a 150m userbase?
It needs several things to be done right.

For the casual mass market:
It needs more hit-games like Ring Fit Adventure, Brain Training, Pokemon and Animal Crossing.

For the hardcore Nintendo fans:
It needs several first-party games currently missing like Metroid Prime 4, Bayonetta 3, a new F-Zero, a new Wave Race, a new kid Icarus, a new Super Mario 2D.

For the general hardcore gamer:
It needs more RPGs, an exclusive Final Fantasy and/or Dragon Quest game and many other popular jRPGs.
Overall it also needs more racing games (Ridge Racer 8?), more fighting games (Street Fighter, Tekken, Soul Calibur) and more first-person adventure, possibly exclusives for the Switch.

Finally, a new Switch TV home-only console at full power and low-price would help convincing some more people.

2D Mario is a great idea, but in general I think the hardcore base that wants games like F-Zero and Kid Icarus has already bought switch.  I’d like a “Wii” sports Golf with motion controls.

Really?? If anything Switch looks like it will have an explosive 2021! We already know of several mega selling games that will hit Switch in 2021, we have reports that Nintendo is planning a huge 2021 software-wise, and a new model is coming out. I'd say Sony and Microsoft are in for a tough 2021 due to Switch dominance.

For sure Switch needs more Ring Fit games, more Pokemon (a remake is rumored to be coming out next holiday season, that's an easy ~15 million seller).

For sure Switch needs MP4 to finally come out at some point, as well as anticipated sequels in series we've been waiting for a long time. Nintendo still has a bunch of small-to-mid size series that haven't even touched the Switch.

For sure Switch needs to continue getting bigger and more established third party games. Though every year this gets better on Switch and I'm sure 2021 will be no different. 2020/2021 seems to be the period in which we've seen third party games release several years late to releasing around the same time or even first on Switch. Very good sign for third party library in the future!

Both an upgraded hybrid model at $300 and an upgraded Switch Home at some point are both needed to keep Switch going strong into it's later years by giving possible new consumer options and therefore motivation to buy, as well as current owners motivation to upgrade. If premium hybrid comes out in 2021 and Home comes out 2022/2023 that'd be good.

Switch absolutely needs a fresh 2D Mario game on Switch. Even the mediocre old "New" series 2D port will go well above 10 million sales. A brand new fresh take on the series on Switch is a likely 20 million seller and system selling game. 100% agree with Wii sports as well. Wii Sports is a hugely popular series and even just a port of the Wii Sports Club from Wii U (Wii Sports with online play) would be another easy 10 million seller and be a great add on for both core gamers and casuals alike who own or are thinking about getting the system.

So yeah what is needed is new models that attract more people and convince current owners to upgrade. A few more entries from Nintendo's main mega selling series (one or two more Pokemon, 2D Mario, BotW2), releasing all the small/mid tier Nintendo series that have yet to hit the system. Bring "handheld style" 2D games that would normally be on Nintendo's portable system to the Switch like the Link's Awakening remake, stuff like a new 2D Metroid, maybe even a new 2D Zelda, and a bunch of other portable series that have yet to hit the Switch. More collections or remasters of old game: I'm looking at you Galaxy 2, Metroid Prime Trilogy, and a Zelda Collection. More casual games like Wii Sports Club port, more Ring Fit games, and so on. 150 million will be hard, but it is doable if Nintendo actually does what Nintendo fans want it to do!

99$ SKU, which is impossible nowadays unless they sell it at a loss

About 85% of DS sales occurred in a 5 year window. 4 of those years sold an average of 27.5 million.

Why would they need this, if it reaches it then it's good, but I think that the moment it's successor is released 1st party should all be focused there, Switch will hit 100M mark soon so I don't see why the need to push for 150M Life time

I’m in agreement here. I think maintaining a high sales rate is important. If getting a successor out achieves that, then good.

My apologies if you’ve read this once or ten times before. My opinion is that the surefire path to success is to maintain strong support for the original Switch for a few years after the generation 2 Switch has launched. Nintendo’s greatest mistakes has always been cutting support and releasing a new unrelated successor when they’re actually doing very well.

Nintendo’s biggest problem occurs at the transition of generations. Rather than smoothly transitioning, they drop all support for the current gen and move resources over to exclusive next gen development, leaving gamers on the old consoles in the hands of third parties - which has never been a spearhead for Nintendo consoles > usually close third party devs follow Nintendo’s lead and abandon the console. This creates a situation where Nintendo’s eggs are all in one big unproven basket, and sometimes that basket is an N64, GameCube, or Wii U.

The Switch tech is going to be good for quite some time, not much needs to change in terms of the next generation form factor. Nintendo, rather than making games specifically for Switch and specifically for Switch 2 can make games with scalable settings depending on the hardware. This is something that’s easier than ever given the generality of some of the Switch features such as the Gamepad resolution. iOS, Android, Macs and other PCs all have gaming software made to scale across a wide variety of settings: Switch 1 and 2 will only need to focus on two - which still makes it significantly easier than other platforms.

While, perhaps, Xenoblade Chronicles X2 or Metroid Prime 4 might drop Switch 1 support in favour of going with highest detail possible, games like Yoshi, Kirby, Mario, Zelda, Mario Party, Pokémon, and the mountains of Steam games, will support both consoles.

Some of the ARM side of the chipset wars has been exciting in 2020: Apple dropped Intel in favour of their new ARM-based chips, debuting with the M1 chip in their entry level MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, and Mac Mini. Nvidia purchased the ARM company for 40 billion USD. ARM technology has been rapidly improving, and will inevitably surpass X86. Nintendo is already ahead of the curve, getting onboard very early. The Apple M1 chip looks like something that - with gaming level gpus - is perfect for a gaming console. Nvidia will almost certainly be looking to compete with that, and Nintendo will benefit from this tech race. It’s not inconceivable Switch 3 will leave PS5 in the dust when it comes out - I assume a while before PS6.

Nintendo just needs to keep building on their platform, rather than clearing it out and rebuilding every generation. Switch 2 should be a Switch 2 should bring Switch 1 gamers and their libraries into the next generation, rather than starting the next generation without them.