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Forums - Sales Discussion - What does Nintendo need to do to reach 150M Switches sold?

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Nothing special.  Nintendo is currently on track to sell 160-170m Switch units lifetime.  All they need to do to achieve this is 1) keep releasing games, 2) for hardware they need price cuts, revisions and bundles at the appropriate time, and 3) release the Switch successor when Switch sales get down to only several million a year.  In other words: nothing special.

Wait, how is it on track to sell 160-170 million?

I thought it was more like 120-135 million?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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Wman1996 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Nothing special.  Nintendo is currently on track to sell 160-170m Switch units lifetime.  All they need to do to achieve this is 1) keep releasing games, 2) for hardware they need price cuts, revisions and bundles at the appropriate time, and 3) release the Switch successor when Switch sales get down to only several million a year.  In other words: nothing special.

Wait, how is it on track to sell 160-170 million?

I thought it was more like 120-135 million?

How is it on track to sell 120-135 million?



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Wman1996 said:

Wait, how is it on track to sell 160-170 million? I thought it was more like 120-135 million?

How is it on track to sell 120-135 million?

This early in an argument and you already know it's going absolutely nowhere.



Price cuts, and becoming mainstream in china.



Continue making even more ports and remakes should do the trick.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Wman1996 said:

Wait, how is it on track to sell 160-170 million?

I thought it was more like 120-135 million?

How is it on track to sell 120-135 million?

Close future is pretty easy, unless they are struggling to make stock they will sell 27+ million this year... for a LTD of 76mln.

If this year is the peak and it has similar yearly drops as the Wii did after it's peak then it will end at around 140mln... but as it's peak is later in life by 1-2 years it could fall a little faster than the Wii.... 120-135 million isn't unreasonable to me.

I mean it's still trailing behind the DS launch aligned, selling a similar monthly amount even with the pandemic boost, and DS topped out at 155million. Not to say 160 million isn't possible, if it can keep momentum going through next year (for example if large swathes of society are still being quarantined or working from home) then that's a good range.



Cut the price by half and don't replace it until 2025 at the earliest.

At 6-½ years between its release and the release of the 3DS he DS had longest the third-longest gap between release and replacement of any Nintendo system (only the Game Boy and Famicom lasted longer). We should probably expect the Switch to last about as long as the DS. But right now the Switch is way behind the DS in Japan and Europe and starting to fall behind the DS in the U.S. That does not bode well for its prospects of hitting 150M. Unless it lasts considerably longer than the DS and gets a huge price cut. I don't see it coming close to matching the DS. Probably something closer to 120-130M lifetime (which is still awesome sales figures).

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 05 October 2020

I think the real question is, SHOULD the Switch reach 150M sold? Meaning, is it in the best interest of Nintendo to sell that many? Fact is, the only two consoles that reached 150M units sold were succeeded by the worst selling items for that company in those categories. The PS3 is the worst selling Sony home console, and the 3DS is the worst selling Nintendo portable. Perhaps Nintendo should focus on continuity of the brand instead, and not focus so much extending the life of the Switch that the successor suffers as a result. It's probably better if they sell 130M Switches and 100M+ Switch 2s, than 150M Switches and 75M or fewer Switch 2's.



SW-3707-5131-3911

kenjab said:
I think the real question is, SHOULD the Switch reach 150M sold? Meaning, is it in the best interest of Nintendo to sell that many? Fact is, the only two consoles that reached 150M units sold were succeeded by the worst selling items for that company in those categories. The PS3 is the worst selling Sony home console, and the 3DS is the worst selling Nintendo portable. Perhaps Nintendo should focus on continuity of the brand instead, and not focus so much extending the life of the Switch that the successor suffers as a result. It's probably better if they sell 130M Switches and 100M+ Switch 2s, than 150M Switches and 75M or fewer Switch 2's.

The cause of those lackluster successors is arrogance, the belief that they could sell anything after they've been so successful. Selling 130m or 150m wouldn't change anything, because both numbers are well above the threshold of a company possibly becoming arrogant. So what actually matters is to stay humble.

What's clear in light of Nintendo's first party development pace is that Switch has to have a long life. Ideally, the launch of the Switch successor is timed to closely coincide with completed games of EPD teams. Mario and Zelda teams are on track to get their respective second Switch game out in 2021 after both had launched their first game in 2017. Accordingly, Nintendo should plan for a Switch 2 launch no sooner than holiday 2024, so ~7.5 years after Switch's launch. Given how little Nintendo has used of the price cut and revision options until now, Switch definitely has the staying power to go another four years before replacement.

So when you put all of that together, aiming for 130m instead of 150m would actually be a move of arrogance, because it would result in a rushed successor that lacked big Nintendo titles early on. That's what Nintendo did with the 3DS (originally intended to launch holiday 2010, but production problems forced a delay to early 2011), so for the DS it would have been smarter if Nintendo had aimed for a higher sales total in order to allow for a smoother transition.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

I think 2021 will be packed with great games and the Switch will sell more in 2021 than in 2020.