| curl-6 said: The way I see it, the three main things that could pull them up short are replacing the Switch too soon, letting software support sag, and not being liberal enough with price drops. While I don't personally expect them to reach 150 million, it's certainly not impossible, they'd just have to play their cards basically perfectly from here on out. |
Yeah basically. They have to do things they aren't known for. If Nintendo is pumping out great software onto the Switch into 2024 before being replaced, has enticing price drops for hardware and software, and continues to support it in some way after the successor comes out, 150+ million is a possibility.
But my guess is Switch will end up at more like 135-140 million because first party software will be starting to run dry in 2023 as they are gearing up for successor launch in probably early 2024 and they'll switch over all development to the new system, and likely we won't see permanent price drops on older first party games until 2023 and we might only see one set of hardware price drops before like late 2023.
It's a question of how long they want to fully support the Switch and how they weigh profit per unit hardware/software versus attracting more people to buy with less profit per unit.
