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HigHurtenflurst on 06 October 2020
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

Close future is pretty easy, unless they are struggling to make stock they will sell 27+ million this year... for a LTD of 76mln.

If this year is the peak and it has similar yearly drops as the Wii did after it's peak then it will end at around 140mln... but as it's peak is later in life by 1-2 years it could fall a little faster than the Wii.... 120-135 million isn't unreasonable to me.

I mean it's still trailing behind the DS launch aligned, selling a similar monthly amount even with the pandemic boost, and DS topped out at 155million. Not to say 160 million isn't possible, if it can keep momentum going through next year (for example if large swathes of society are still being quarantined or working from home) then that's a good range.

Basically you are predicting that it will have a very rapid decline after this year, more rapid than the Wii.  I can understand this position.  I don't agree with it, but I understand it.  I am predicting a more gradual decline after this year.

Going by fiscal years, Nintendo shipped 21.03m for the FY ending March 2020 for a total of 55.78m.  Bloomberg reported Nintendo plans to ship 30m this FY.  I'll say it will be only 29.22m so that the total will be a nice round 85m for FY 2021.  Next year (FY 2022) I think they will ship more than 2020, so around 24m, which brings the total to 109m.  After that, with gradual annual drops, it isn't difficult to get to 160m-170m.  Also consider there is no way they are going to release a new system in 2023 if they ship 20m+ in 2022, Nintendo has tons of room for price cuts and hardware revisions still, and third party support keeps getting better each year with games like Monster Hunter Rise releasing next year.  It is quite likely that the YoY drops will be gradual.

I didn't make a prediction, just noting that 120-135 million (from Wman) isn't an unreasonable prediction, especially given Nintendo's past longevity.

The Switch itself being a hybrid handheld/home console it might perform more like the DS did, which declined faster than the Wii did, but that was after an almost 3 year long peak sales period.
At this point we just don't know... by April-May next year we will have some idea... if it's still selling 300k+ per week then it will be on track for a repeat stellar year lke this one, then 160 million is easy and 170 million well within sight.