It could very well do that. I expect PS5 to be ahead of the PS4 from launch, and still ahead of the PS4 by the end of 2021. Beyond that I have no idea if it will match the PS4's 120m+ lifetime sales. But I'm confident it'll be ahead at the end of next year.

COVID will 100% still be there in 2021, and unless they delay some games, the line up for the first year will be way stronger than PS4 first year.

So yes, PS5 > PS4 at launch and for the first year.

however second year and third year i don't think it'll have the usual growth other Playstation system are used to have, mostly because at one point the COVID boost is gonna end, but also because the first year will be better in general.

I think PS5 will sell between 100-120 million, 110 million is my guess, and PS4 125 million.

In spite of the conventional wisdom, Switch is in fact competing with the PS5.  A fair amount of PS4/XB1 players won't buy a PS5, because they are playing their Switch instead.  On top of that the world is going through a significant recession.  This is especially bad in the US.  People will still play video games, but they will prefer the cheapest current system, which is the Switch.

Obviously it is not difficult to find people online who want a PS5, but I think most people here are overestimating the actual demand when it comes to sales.  I expect the enthusiastic fans to get a PS5 around launch but then demand will not grow like it did for the PS4.  I expect to sell it more like the PS3.

Put 7 million due to supply issues. Consoles launches require strong supply chains and we aren't seeing that due to COVID.

There is another issues that could hurt PS5 long term, and that's the recession. A lot of people are out of work and some counties are doubling down on lockdowns. Without another stimulus, people will be strapped. A $500 PS5 with $70 games isn't going to work for most people. They'll either buy the cheaper PS4 or get a Switch. Series S will also cut into Sony's business as it will be very cheap to get in. PS5 wont be a successful as the PS4 for that reason alone. 

Sony announced 10 million shipments, so I think thats a lock

Sounds about right

They can ship whatever they want. But in these COVID times as they are, I HIGHLY doubt that either new system is going to light up the charts in just a few months.

Not all adults have that kind of disposable income, and with COVID, some don't even have their regular income.

I think there is enough demand beat PS4 to 10m. Its really a question of logistics and whether they can bring that many to market in current circumstances

Rumors says Sony is shipping 11m so I think thats possible.

Preorders say otherwise. They'll sell out whatever they ship this holiday. This goes for Series X as well.

If anything these consoles are going to do even better as more people are stuck indoors.