It's time to predict Switch sales for 2020. Switch has been having an incredible year for hardware sales, and VGChartz currently has them tracked at 15.29 million systems worldwide. They are currently outpacing the DS's best year (slightly). Also, we now know most (or all) of Nintendo's holiday lineup of games. With all of this in mind, let's hear your predictions for how much Switch is going to sell for the year total.
Some relevant info:
VGChartz has Switch sales at 15.29m so far for the year. Last year Switch sold 11.32m from this point to the end of the year. So, if Switch sales remain flat from this point onward, then total sales would be 26.61m.
On the other hand, what if Switch sales do better than simply match 2019 for the rest of the year? Here is what Switch would sell if it maintained the same proportion of sales for the rest of the year compared to previous years.
|YTD sales||total sales||% YTD||2020 projection|
One thing to consider when looking at this table is that Switch had strong sales in the early part of 2020 fueled by Animal Crossing and COVID19, while in 2018 and 2019 had fairly weak titles released in the earler parts of the year with a strong holiday lineup. However, consider 2017. In 2017, Nintendo released 3 strong titles in the early part of the year, Zelda, Mario Kart, and Splatoon 2, and one strong title for the holdays, Mario Odyssey. Having 3 strong titles early in the year and only one strong title later in the year may make 2017 (in proportional terms) a good year for comparison to 2020.
For reference here are some key exclusives to be released by the end of 2020, plus a couple of other titles that have a good chance of getting a 2020 release date:
Super Mario 3D All Stars (Sept 18)
Super Mario Bros 35 (Oct 1, online only)
Mario Kart Live (Oct 16)
Pikmin 3 Deluxe (Oct 30)
Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Nov 20)
Other likely releases:
Bravely Default 2 (TBD)
Pokemon Snap (TBD)
Last, but not least, is the question of how much Nintendo is able to actually ship before the end of 2020. Bloomberg has announced that Nintendo plans to ship 30m units during the current fiscal year. However, this 30m would also include shipments for Jan-Mar 2021 and it does not include sales for the first 3 months of this year.
Taking all of this into account, what do you think? How many Switches will Nintendo sell this year? Will it break the 2008 record set by the DS of 29.66m? And most importantly, why do you think Switch sales will turn out the way they will?