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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Switch 2020 sales

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How many Switches will be sold this year?

Less than 24 million 2 4.55%
24 - 25.9 million 2 4.55%
26 - 27.9 million 10 22.73%
28 - 29.9 million 12 27.27%
30 - 31.9 million 10 22.73%
32 - 33.9 million 4 9.09%
34 - 35.9 million 1 2.27%
36 - 39.9 million 0 0%
Over 40 million 0 0%
Nintendo is doomed! 3 6.82%

It's time to predict Switch sales for 2020.  Switch has been having an incredible year for hardware sales, and VGChartz currently has them tracked at 15.29 million systems worldwide.  They are currently outpacing the DS's best year (slightly).  Also, we now know most (or all) of Nintendo's holiday lineup of games.  With all of this in mind, let's hear your predictions for how much Switch is going to sell for the year total.  

Some relevant info:

VGChartz has Switch sales at 15.29m so far for the year.  Last year Switch sold 11.32m from this point to the end of the year.  So, if Switch sales remain flat from this point onward, then total sales would be 26.61m. 

On the other hand, what if Switch sales do better than simply match 2019 for the rest of the year?  Here is what Switch would sell if it maintained the same proportion of sales for the rest of the year compared to previous years.

YTD sales total sales % YTD 2020 projection
2017            5,807,112          13,116,268 44.3%          34,523,766
2018            6,914,115          16,339,594 42.3%          36,122,080
2019            7,953,518          19,278,538 41.3%          37,049,548

One thing to consider when looking at this table is that Switch had strong sales in the early part of 2020 fueled by Animal Crossing and COVID19, while in 2018 and 2019 had fairly weak titles released in the earler parts of the year with a strong holiday lineup.  However, consider 2017.  In 2017, Nintendo released 3 strong titles in the early part of the year, Zelda, Mario Kart, and Splatoon 2, and one strong title for the holdays, Mario Odyssey.  Having 3 strong titles early in the year and only one strong title later in the year may make 2017 (in proportional terms) a good year for comparison to 2020. 

For reference here are some key exclusives to be released by the end of 2020, plus a couple of other titles that have a good chance of getting a 2020 release date:
Super Mario 3D All Stars (Sept 18)
Super Mario Bros 35 (Oct 1, online only)
Mario Kart Live (Oct 16)
Pikmin 3 Deluxe (Oct 30)
Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Nov 20)

Other likely releases:
Bravely Default 2 (TBD)
Pokemon Snap (TBD)

Last, but not least, is the question of how much Nintendo is able to actually ship before the end of 2020.  Bloomberg has announced that Nintendo plans to ship 30m units during the current fiscal year.  However, this 30m would also include shipments for Jan-Mar 2021 and it does not include sales for the first 3 months of this year.

Taking all of this into account, what do you think?  How many Switches will Nintendo sell this year?  Will it break the 2008 record set by the DS of 29.66m?  And most importantly, why do you think Switch sales will turn out the way they will?

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30-31.9 million

EDIT: RiP my bio, Switch sales this year were impossible to predict aaaaaaaaaaaargh

I think it'll do 28 million.

4 millions in Sep+ Oct = 19.3 millions
11 millions in Nov + Dec = 30.3 millions

That's if they can ship that much. But yea i'm sure they will be able to do that.


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I chose 30-31M. While there are some factors that may make that number lower such as the potential lack of a major holiday title compared to years prior and the launch of the Switch Lite which might lower the 2020's YoY sales growth, and maybe the launch of the PS5 and Xbox SSX might affect Switch sales.

However, the Switch pretty much since it launched and especially in 2020 has put away any sort of doubt people had with Switch sales.

Arguments in 2017: All Nintendo Consoles sell well their first year, sales will fall off a cliff next year with no 3rd party support.

Arguments in 2018, Switch sales will fall off a cliff next year, just like the 3DS

Arguments in 2019, All the major games released for Nintendo Switch, and once next gen consoles come out Switch sales will slow down

Arguments in 2020: Switch sales are only high temporarily due to COVID-19 boost, Switch might be down YOY by the end of 2020. "u.S sAlEs wErE dOwN 1% iN jAnUaRy & fEbRuArY"

At this point, any doubts against the Switch are irrelevant for me. These doubts have been proven false time after time again. The reality is the Switch has an insane amount of demand rn and its not gonna slow down anytime soon. Nintendo increased their shipments to 25M and they're still selling out everywhere, the amount of unmet demand at this point is huge and Im sure Nintendo is saving a lot of their stock for the holiday season. Nintendo is gonna need to ship 30M+ to fulfill the amount of unmet demand rn. Even without a major holiday title Nintendo will be fine.

I'll go with 28-30. It selling better in August than expected combined with it being very unlikely it's flat from September-December should make it do a decent bit better than last year despite the worse holiday lineup and no revision this time. I hope it gets over 30 million and not only breaks the record but becomes the first console ever to sell that much in a single year.

I'm going to go ahead and vote a bullish 32 - 33.9m. I very much realize that Nintendo can fall several million short of this simply because of lack of stock. This is what I think they can sell if stock is not an issue though. Who knows? Maybe they will tell Bloomberg 30m and then manufacture 35m just in case.

Bumping this up again to give people another chance to vote before the big holiday numbers come it.  Right now Switch is at 20.53m for the year.  If sales are flat with 2019 for the rest of the year, then Switch will end up at 28.05m.  On the other hand, if sales are proportional to last year's sales, then Switch will end up at 33.66m. 

I'll bump this thread up again after the final numbers come in to see how we all did.

By VGC, NSW's October (2,023K in 4 weeks) was the all time high ahead of the NDS's highs around 1.6-1.7M in 2007 and 2008. Sign to come for Nov/Dec?

Nov all time highs are NDS 08 (3.8M).
Dec all time highs are NDS 08 and Wii 09(7.0M and 6.5M).

Through two weeks, NSW 20 is at 1.29M with AOC week and then Black Friday week still to be counted. Last year, NSW did 3,45M in November, and 599K and 1.89M for those last two weeks. If it keeps up the increase over 2019 for the final two weeks then the NDS record is toast with 4.63M sold in 4 November weeks, and will be sitting at 23.84M with 4 weeks of December to go, so 6.16M needed. Dec 2019 4 weeks was 5.03M, so Dec needs to be up 22%. It's going to be very close within this 52 week tracking period.

Last edited by mk7sx - on 29 November 2020