Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Switch ship 30M Consoles this fiscal year?

Will Switch Ship 30M Consoles this fiscal year?

Yes 16 69.57%
 
No 7 30.43%
 
Total:23

With Bloomberg reporting that Nintendo has increased Switch production by 20% and now expects to ship 30M consoles this fiscal year. Will the Switch do the unprecedented and actually ship 30 Million consoles this fiscal year between March 2020-March 2021?

If the Switch were to ship 30M this fiscal year, the Switch would be at around 86 Million by March 2021, which is insane that a system only 4 years in would reach 86M sold. No other console was able to do that other than the Nintendo DS. Even the extremely fast selling Wii couldn't hit 86M in 4 years EVEN WITH 5 HOLIDAY SEASONS compared to the Switch's 4 Holiday Seasons by March 2021.

Let's say the Switch sells 30M this fiscal year and right after falls off a cliff exactly like the Wii did, how much would it sell in it's lifetime?

March 2021: 86M

March 2022: 106M

March 2023: 121M

March 2024: 130M

March 2025: 134M

March 2026: 135M

Those are high numbers! That may compete with PS2/DS numbers eventually.

 



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Your "fall off a cliff" scenario shows them selling 20 million units the next year? 20 million ANY YEAR for any system is a great number. Covid has done weird things to our expectations lol.



Probably not but who knows, they will atleast get close



Dulfite said:
Your "fall off a cliff" scenario shows them selling 20 million units the next year? 20 million ANY YEAR for any system is a great number. Covid has done weird things to our expectations lol.

The "falls off a cliff" term is maybe OTT, but 30 to 20 million is a 33% drop, looking at the hardware comparison charts (which are VGC sales for calendar year, but I can't be bothered to find all the shipment data) it's rare for sales to drop that much for a successful console unless it's caused by a replacement.

According to VGC these are the largest sales drops by % ignoring replacement years:

WiiU year4-5 = 68% (WiiU not a successful console though)
3DS year3-4 = 36%
Wii year5-6 = 33%
PSP year5-6 = 29%
XOne year6-7 = 27%
DS year6-7 = 25%

Unless Nintendo announces a successor it can ride the demand into the following year. Javi did say "falls off a cliff exactly like the Wii did".



Heh, going from 30m a year to 20m a year is a drop of 10m. That is falling off a cliff, but it still means 20m in sales next year. Basically even the most pessimisstic scenarios put Switch as having amazing sales.



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Dulfite said:
Your "fall off a cliff" scenario shows them selling 20 million units the next year? 20 million ANY YEAR for any system is a great number. Covid has done weird things to our expectations lol.

Haha yeah I laughed when he said falling off a cliff meant 20 million the next year...and then 15 million the following year haha.

I mean sure its a lot less than 30 million, but 20 million would be a very strong year (obviously). Falling off a cliff would be like 30 to 15 to 10, in that two years after the second best year of any system ever they'd have to be readying a new system due to dying sales. 30 to 20 to 15 would be very strong for years 4/5/6. 30-20-15 would just mean the 30 year was the outlier thanks to Covid + AC working together to make a buying frenzy. An outlier is different than a cliff. Nobody would say Switch fell off a cliff if it sold 20 million next fiscal year. That'd still be its second best year!



Slownenberg said:
Dulfite said:
Your "fall off a cliff" scenario shows them selling 20 million units the next year? 20 million ANY YEAR for any system is a great number. Covid has done weird things to our expectations lol.

Haha yeah I laughed when he said falling off a cliff meant 20 million the next year...and then 15 million the following year haha.

I mean sure its a lot less than 30 million, but 20 million would be a very strong year (obviously). Falling off a cliff would be like 30 to 15 to 10, in that two years after the second best year of any system ever they'd have to be readying a new system due to dying sales. 30 to 20 to 15 would be very strong for years 4/5/6. 30-20-15 would just mean the 30 year was the outlier thanks to Covid + AC working together to make a buying frenzy. An outlier is different than a cliff. Nobody would say Switch fell off a cliff if it sold 20 million next fiscal year. That'd still be its second best year!

Yeah I'm fairly confident that if Switch sells 30 million, it would have done (max) 25 million in a non Covid-19 year. And XBO and PS4 sales would be down considerably as well. This sucky situation just really helped the gaming industry out as everyone was losing their minds staring at their houses drywall for 16 hours a day they were awake.

So if they dropped from 30 mil to 20 mil next year, in my mind it would really be a 25 mil to 20 mil drop, which is nothing. If they go from 30 mil to 15 mil, then we can say that's a huge drop off, and yet 15 mil is still a ton of consoles moved in a year. I'd say it would have to get to 10 mil or less to be considered falling off a cliff.



Either 6 million avg. per quarter and 12 million during holiday, or 5 million/15 million.
Is gonna be hard but is not impossible. Last quarter was 5.68 million and it was still undershipped.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

20mil for 2021 seems too low. I'm actually expecting 25mil at least with all the anticipated Zelda stuff. Remember Zelda started the switch phenomena. I'm expecting:

March 2021: 86mil

March 2022: 111mil

March 2023: 130mil

March 2024: 139mil

March 2025: 145mil

March 2026: 148mil

Holy spatula sales batman! The switch can actually compete against the DS and PS2 when you hash it out. Especially if next year somehow turns out somehow even bigger.

Last edited by Eagle367 - on 13 September 2020

Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

30m seems to be the max possible production at this point, so to ship all of them would be a logistical masterstroke! So i voted no. I think it will narrowly miss out on 30m, unless production is ramped up even more!



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