Slownenberg said:
Haha yeah I laughed when he said falling off a cliff meant 20 million the next year...and then 15 million the following year haha. I mean sure its a lot less than 30 million, but 20 million would be a very strong year (obviously). Falling off a cliff would be like 30 to 15 to 10, in that two years after the second best year of any system ever they'd have to be readying a new system due to dying sales. 30 to 20 to 15 would be very strong for years 4/5/6. 30-20-15 would just mean the 30 year was the outlier thanks to Covid + AC working together to make a buying frenzy. An outlier is different than a cliff. Nobody would say Switch fell off a cliff if it sold 20 million next fiscal year. That'd still be its second best year! |
Yeah I'm fairly confident that if Switch sells 30 million, it would have done (max) 25 million in a non Covid-19 year. And XBO and PS4 sales would be down considerably as well. This sucky situation just really helped the gaming industry out as everyone was losing their minds staring at their houses drywall for 16 hours a day they were awake.
So if they dropped from 30 mil to 20 mil next year, in my mind it would really be a 25 mil to 20 mil drop, which is nothing. If they go from 30 mil to 15 mil, then we can say that's a huge drop off, and yet 15 mil is still a ton of consoles moved in a year. I'd say it would have to get to 10 mil or less to be considered falling off a cliff.
