Forums - Sales Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: PS5 and PS5D to be $399 and $349 respectively

Reasoning...

PS4 BOM was $381. That was for;

  • 350mm2+ 28nm APU ($100)
  • 16 chips of 4Gb(512MB) GDDR5 RAM@ $5.50/chip ($88)
  • Optical drive ($30) 
  • Hard Drive ($37)
  • Controller ($18)
  • Everything else ($108) [manufacturing,other components...etc]

I listed the prices of the major components. And those all add up to $273. Now the PS5 has rumored BOM of $450, and this was reported at a time when it was said that it was that high because prices of certain things were high. This was before more recent reports saying prices of certain components has dropped and yields are better than expected. So that $450 BOM is possibly actually too high. That BOM means that the PS5 costs (at worst) an additional $70 to make than a PS4 in 2013.

So, potential PS5 components cost assuming a $450(ish) BOM;

  • <325mm2 7nm APU ($110)
    a major driver for APU coss is the size of the chip with a small technology tax. Bigger the chip, the fewer chips you can get from a wafer. the PS5 has a smaller chip than what the PS4 had in 2013, due to being on 4 times smaller fabrication process, from a wafer standpoint alone you should be getting around 4 times more chips from the same-sized wafer. Which means that chip should technically cost $25 lol. But it doesn't really work that way either, and the technology tax comes in to play. 7nm fabrication costs more than 28nm fabrication. Hence why the PS5 APU still costs around $110/chip.
  • 8 chips of 16Gb(2GB) GDDR6 RAM@ $12/chip ($96)
    Much like the APU, RAM cost is also tied to the fab process. In 2018, there were reports that 8GB of GDDR5 cost under $50. And 1GB of GDDR6 chips cost around $9/chip. Capacities go from 8Gb chips to 16Gb chips when the fab process has shifted to a smaller node. So they are basically using the same sized wafer but getting as much as twice as many chips from it. Again, tack on the tech tax, and you end up with my estimate.
  • The optical drive goes up to ($35)
  • being a UHD drive, and hardware like these would never drop below a certain point.
  • SSD ($45) 
    They are using 12 64GiB chips, those are considered low capacity NAND flash chips. They are using a DRAM-less controller (like the XS) and instead have SRAM for the SSD built into the APU (XSX doesn't do this by the way) which is why the APU even gets as big as my estimated 325mm2. Basically, they are going about making an SSD the heapest way an SSD can be made, simply embedding it onto the main PCB.
  • Controller ($27)
    Haptics won't cost much more than a standard rumble, the adaptive triggers adds more too though.
  • Everything else goes up a bit by lets say $15. And now sits at around ($123)

That brings my BOM estimate to $436. $14 shy of what the rumored BOM is. Think that puts me in an acceptable region of error. So that makes it $436 for the PS5 and $400 for the PS5D. Add $40 for retailer cuts and other hidden costs and the true PS5 BOMis around $476 and $440 for the PS5 and PS5D respectively. Sony would NEVER sell the PS5 at a profit, so going up to $499 is extremely unlikely. 

I can see them taking a loss of $76 for the PS5 and come in at $399, and then a loss of around $90 for the PS5D and come in at $350.

Then again, all my estimates may be totally wrong and dated and everything ends up costing at least $50 more.



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That's bold all right - I'm thinking it's gonna be quite a bit pricier than that.

We've seen bolder predictions hit home though so who knows.. we should know soon enough! =)



Less bold prediction:

No



Bold =! Nonsense

50$ difference between the 2 models doesn't make any sense, it will be at least 100$



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

SKMBlake said:
Bold =! Nonsense

50$ difference between the 2 models doesn't make any sense, it will be at least 100$

lol... not if the most expensive SKU is $399 :)



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Funnily enough, this crosses my mind from time to time. With the excellent rebuttal of Xbox's price reveal after the leak, Sony really needs to upstage them to keep the thunder from being stolen. And the price is essential.

They will either:

  • Sell at a loss ($399) in order to get a leg up from MS announcement
  • "Call" Xbox Series X's price ($499) and pray their option is considered over the other
  • Release it at a premium (599 US Dollars) which could be justified with whatever they announce next Wednesday, also taking in consideration the limited amount of consoles to be sold throughout this year and the demand for it.

They'll most likely "call".



Yeah imma go with a no. I wouldnt be complaining though



You're not tbone, so I'll say no, it's gonna be more expensive.



Although I would love this price, I don't think they will go that low.

Also, the only difference is the UHD drive, how much does that actually cost by itself?



I like the way you think. I could buy around 4 premium 10 inch pizzas, or 3 premium 13 inch pizzas with the savings. Winter is coming.



Chinese food for breakfast