Its the story of the third party support on Switch. Its been more apparent now considering that the Switch is selling at an incredible pace and selling a lot of software. Games like DBFZ, DBXenoverse 2, DQXIS, Tales of Vesperia Definitive Edition, Octopath Traveler, Mario + Rabbids, Trials of Mana remake, eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020, Taiko no Tatsujin, Hatsune Miku, Super Bomberman R, Story of Seasons, Minecraft, and a plethora of indie games have found great success on Switch. Even The Witcher 3, sacrifices and all, found success on Switch.

Pretty much; if a Playstation hybrid had gotten the same games I expect they would have sold pretty much the same.

The third parties that have actually bothered have seen some success, while those that have shortchanged the Switch audience are missing out.

Not enough for me

Here is the situation with Japanese third party developers: They take a really long time to make games.  Japanese dev time seems to be a lot slower than Western dev time.  Even back in 2017 it was obvious that Switch wasn't a dud like the Wii U, and it was also going to be the only handheld system available going forward.  These facts alone meant that the Switch was going to get a lot of third party support.  But we are only now, in 2020, we are getting a good amount of Switch third party games.

Basically it takes about 3 years on average for Japanese devs to make a game.  These are the types of third party games we get based on 2017 expectations, which were "Switch will be successful, but not record breaking".  Now in 2020 we can look at sales and see that Switch is breaking records.  At the very least Animal Crossing is a record breaking game, and Switch may end up breaking other sales records as well (it is cleary selling well enough to at least be competitive with the best selling systems ever).  This is the sort of year that makes Japanese devs that they need to seriously up support for the Switch.  But since there is a 3 year delay, we probably won't be seeing the effects of this until 2023.

Basically the Japanese third party support we should expect this year is for a moderately successful system, but we'll still need to wait a few years to see third party games of the calibur for a highly successful system. 

Quick update on the upcoming titles 2020/2021, overall we are still lacking a few titles to be dated. Most notably Bravely Default and Rune Factory.  Also, Capcom is seemingly on a hiatus for the rest of the year.  

• Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo)
• Romance of the Three Kingdoms (Koei Tecmo)
• Kamen Rider: Memory of Heroez (Koei Tecmo)
• Monster Rancher 2 (Koei Tecmo)

Koei revealed two additional games to come out a port of Monster Rancher 2 and Romance of the Three Kingdoms. On the PS4 ROTTK did at most 50K, so this port isn't going to be a major hit but it might at least outperform PS4 entries. No idea what to expect of Monster Rancher 2, but I doubt it's also going to be a major hit or anything(perhaps its download only, who knows). Ryza 2 remains Koei's biggest game this holiday but they have some additional titles. 

They should still do alright I think they will easily increase their total sales to somewhere between 500-750K on the Switch. Currently, their sales are in the 350-400K range

• Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix)
• SaGa: Final Fantasy Legend (Square Enix)
• Bravely Default 2 (Square Enix)
• Kingdom Hearts: Melody of Memory (Square Enix)

We've still not seen Bravely Default 2 dated for this holiday, and it remains to be seen how much a Kingdom Hearts and SaGa Legends do. Although this is better by Square it feels like unless Bravely makes it on the next full-fledged direct we won't be seeing it release in 2020. SaGa Legends is a digital-only release so it won't be affecting physical sales for them.

Depending on whether Bravely releases I can see Square ending up above 2 million software sold on the Switch by the end of the year. The support still isn't excellent but it's an improvement over prior years. 

Chris on resetera says he expect FFCC to sell above 50K opening week, which would be in line with Trials of Mana performance more than with The Zodiac Age which opened at 20K

• Jump Force (Bandai Namco)
• Captain Tsubasa (Bandai Namco)
• Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack (Bandai Namco)

Like I've said Bandai has some potential hits on the system this year as well. They will continue to be the number one Japanese 3rd Party on the Switch and looking at this lineup could surpass 3 million software sold this year. Although Jump Force will be limited by being a late port it's still some additional sales. While Taiko and Captain Tsubasa are the two titles that I have a feeling will do very well on the Switch. With Captain Tsubasa my one worry is its price but I think they might lower that by December and push it as a Christmas gift. 

Taiko I think can do 250-300K this year, because we are heading towards a historic holiday. 

• Sakuna (Marvelous)
• Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous)

Still no date for Rune Factory 5, this is the main title Marvelous needs to ensure hits the Switch this holiday. It could very easily double their sales on the Switch to something in the region of 600K, this would be more than Sega, Level 5, Koei or Capcom have achieved thus far. 

• Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami)

Looking at eBaseball's performance and how Momotaro is doing on Amazon in terms of pre-orders, Konami is about to have one hell of a year on the Switch.

In 2021 they might become the first Japanese 3rd Party Publisher to have a million-selling game on the Switch. I'm thinking they end up somewhere around 1.25M doubling their current sales on the system. 

• Megaton Musashi (Level 5)

Once again nothing new from Level 5, by far the biggest disappointment on the Switch. They are really fading into obscurity pretty fast as a company and need to announce something soon because otherwise, they are in for a very rough ride. Hopefully, their non-Japanese sales and deep discounts on the eShop are able to keep them afloat. 

• SMT III Nocturne HD Remaster (Altus)
• SMT V (Altus)

Nocturne will finally put Atlus on the map, allowing them to surpass 100K sales on the Switch. You gotta wonder though how much money they are living on the table not being there already. Hopefully, after SMT V some other games are released quickly. 

• Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega)

It has happened Sega announced something, Puyo Puyo is at least something, here's hoping the sequel is able to surpass 100K this holiday. Still laughable considering the size of Sega and how many games they could be porting to the system. 

• Derby Stallion (Land Ho!)

The last Derby Stallion game sold over 100K, so there is a decent chance for Land Ho! to suddenly become a Top 15 Japanese Studio on the Switch.. who knows this is a franchise I'm not even going to try to estimate. 

D3 has Earth Defense Force 6 but haven't announced if it's coming on the Switch.

Capcom Nippon, and FuRyu are seemingly not releasing any more games this year. Also shouldn't Imagineer be working on their next title at this point, gotta strike while the iron is hot from all the boxing. 

Also, some more indie titles highlighted at this direct, a Short Hike & the one about hugging animals are probably going to do the best but interested in the eShop charts when these games release. Tank games are still a thing as well. 

Wow, XB1 even worse in those countries ostensibly. PS4 a bit stronger than Japan comparatively, but it is clearly on the way out. Too bad we don't have data of past years too, or at least YoY estimates.

Seems like the Switch is doing extremely well on all regions. Xbox One and PS4 cant relate.