Depends, no one would call Pokemon games on GameCube are not real proper Pokemon games.

Maybe it could outsell the wii u!

Holy shit! I mean of course Animal Crossing was going to do big, but damn did not think it would be on it's way to becoming the #1 Switch game! Like, how though!? The game is solid, though behind New Leaf in areas, but yet unlike New Leaf it beat out Pokemon and Mario and is looking to challenge Kart. Even still I don't think Animal Crossing is bigger than Pokemon and Kart, the former just hasn't had the greatest games, and the latter hasn't had a new game yet. To me this only furthers the idea that a Mario Kart 9 would destroy everything! :D

Looking at some of the sales we'll clearly have a top six of 20m sellers by the end of the year only one behind the 7 of the Wii, it's guaranteed at this point we'll have more than ten 10m sellers we may in fact have a top 20 of 10m sellers in the end tbh. MK8D will catch MKW while both AC, SMO and BOTW have set new franchise benchmarks, Pokemon has overtaken P/D to become the third best selling in the series it'll likely also be the first Pokemon game since G/S to cross the 20m mark.

RFA has sold as much as games like Nier:A and is 1m behind a title like FFVIIR and DQXI just take that in for a moment this game is not only a surprise hit it could surprisingly close itself out around 10m or so if this keeps up for another year, Clubhouse charges into the million sellers bracket while XBC has allegedly sold half of XBC2 which is actually news for the second game in itself as it's last known shipment was 1.7m which means it now sits at 2.6m which is good growth for a series that NOA had no intention of releasing we owe former NOE President for this one by going out his way to localize it for Europe which in turn cause OR we would have missed out on a great new series.

If we are talking about Pokémon games that have monstruous sales and enough power to impact the sales of its console significantly (which is what we are doing here) then it's implied that we are talking about mainline Pokémon games even if they are not being called "mainline" Pokémon games. This is even more obvious given the fact that the other user was trying to diferentiate the Switch from Nintendo home consoles like the Wii. Since mainline Pokémon games have only appeared on handheld systems... If at that point you still need clarification about what kind of Pokémon games is he refering to, either you have serious comprehension problems or you are just playing dumb on purpouse just for the sake of being nitpicky and calling someone out.

I keep hearing how XC: DE is at around half the sales for XC2. But I don’t see where we got updated numbers for ‘2’.

Oh, well when you put it that way it totally makes sense.

The craziest thing is that this holiday New Horizon will be one of the Top 5 Games during Obon, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and December, along with the Switch. It will continue to sell more hardware because it's basically not competing with any other Nintendo game(or any other dedicated video game that costs $60 for that matter). It's going to be attracting a new audience that otherwise would have spent their money on something entirely not related to gaming. This audience probably doesn't even know PS5 or X1S are launching. 

Top that off with actual supply for Ring Fit Adventure during big holiday weeks. And you have two types of new additional audiences you can market Nintendo Switch too. 

The hardware sales during the holiday quarter this year can be something like 15M, if we keep the same ratio as last year's results we are talking 4.5M NSW L and 10.5M NSW. I actually think the ratio for Lites will be higher this year so something like 6M NSW L vs 9M NSW for the holidays. 

I'm expecting Animal Crossing: New Horizon to sell above seven million during the holiday, while Ring Fit entirely depends on their DLC Plans and marketing but I think that 2020 will be a lot like 2008. I've said it before but it's no coincidence Nintendo peaked between 2008 and 2010, the Financial Crisis gave video gaming a major boost. The same is happening this year but when people are looking for escapism from stress in their life, I think Nintendo hits the cord, while AAA narrative games don't. 

Ring Fit deserves a "second" launch where stock is finally plentiful and a big update to the game would be a terrific way to market the game during busy holiday months. This is a game from the team behind Wii Sports/Fit Franchise, Nintendo will definitely be putting big marketing behind the game as soon they are able to produce enough copies to meet the demand for the holiday season. The game also synergizes much better with the more expensive Switch model, which doesn't put a bundle out of the question. It could actually outsell New Horizon in the holidays and surpass 15M units this year(at 4M right now). 

The only question remains the big fall title to really ensure the core audience is also interested. 

In any case a fun article from January 2008:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/jan/24/nintendo.news

"Some people say the overall economy is getting worse and consumption is weakening. But our industry seems to be pretty well shielded from what's going on," Mori added.

The Daiwa Research Institute predicts that Nintendo will overtake Sony as the world's biggest maker of game consoles this year.

Sales of the Wii, with its wand-like remote controller, have been driven by a combination of price - at ¥25,000 it is considerably cheaper than Sony's PlayStation 3 - and its appeal to women and novice gamers.

Hit software titles such as Wii Sports, Wii Fit and Super Mario Galaxy helped Nintendo clean up over the Christmas sales period. It outsold the PS3 by three-to-one in Japan in December, according to the game magazine publisher Enterbrain, while sales in the US for the month were almost double those of the Sony machine, the market research firm NPD Group said.

In Japan this holiday it would be something like six-to-one if not worse between the Switch and PS5, while three-to-one in the US sounds about right. People underestimate Nintendo but I think they are prepared for a 30 million FY and that's without having to cut the price by $50/¥5,000.

Now if they also cut the price by $50/¥5,000 I actually think manufacturing 30 million Switches would not be enough to satisfy demand. 

We've seen this movie play out before... the question is how Nintendo invests all that money around this time next year(July/August) having surpassed  >80M in terms of their userbase, tens of millions of people paying them $20/¥2,000 per year to play Animal Crossing: New Horizon and other online games, while dominating 90% of the Japanese Video Game Hardware market... while also releasing the sequel to one of the highest reviewed games of all time Breath of the Wild with at least 5 more exclusive 1st party games yet to come during 2021.

Meanwhile, PS5 and X1S have no more than >25M userbase between em

In such a scenario they would plan to sell at least 25M during 2021 FY.  

This type of situation would put them in a very particular position, where all of a sudden EA is marketing the PS4/Switch versions more than the PS5/X1S because they cannot afford, not to market them... If anything I say comes out correct, the industry giants are going to be purchasing a lot of indie developers and smaller studios who've found success on the Switch in the past three years. Also, you'd probably be able to play some type of Halo game on your Switch along with other Microsoft exclusives. 

Another almost guaranteed 10 million plus seller is Luigi's Mansion 3, which was at 6.33 million at the end of March after just 5 months on the market.

And Wii sold ridiculous without any mainline Pokemon game so...