Beating the 3DS is merely a common sense prediction.
Getting to 30m lifetime isn't a stretch at all.
Beating the DS has a chance of far more than 1%. I'd put it at 33/67.
2020 is heading for a LTD of 17m by the end of the year. Afterwards we have the usual rundown of price cuts and revisions, but I want to remind people that portable consoles are personalized devices, so selling different colors and special editions is an additional appealing proposition which especially the lower priced Lite model can take advantage of.
Beyond that, what is the Japanese console market going to look like in the coming years? The XSX is bound to be virtually a non-factor, the PS5 won't sell well. So the simple question is whether Japan will continue to buy Switch consoles or if the console market will greatly suffer. I expect the former, so there's still a good bunch of 3-5m years for Switch ahead of us, hence why 30m lifetime won't be hard to reach. If Switch averaged 3m per year from 2021-2024, it would hit ~29m by the end of 2024.
Using medium projections for LTD by the end of...
2026: ~31.5m (end of life)
If Nintendo decides to squeeze out everything of Switch in the same way they did it for the 3DS, then Switch will become the #1 console of all time in Japan. Switch is a lot healthier than the 3DS was, so of course it has a far greater ceiling.
Another thing I want to touch up on specifically for 2020/2021 is the fact that even with no software releasing for the rest of the year, people forget its new consumers buying the product. With the massive backlog of sales evergreens and Software, demand is the highest it’s ever been.
this can be thanked by AC of course but another driver that’s really pushing it is RFA, game is sold out as soon as it’s available. A fitness game as well as a jrpg is acting like Pokémon from GB era!
of course there will be new software but we are still in a period where lotteries are happening, not only for HW but for a game as well.
i still think this year won’t satisfy demand and next year will be a spill over especially when hardware is able to ship out as much as they can. We are already well over 3months of shortages lol.
2020 5.5mil-6mil (depends on how much they ship)