Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Extra BOLD + Not BOLD Prediction! NSW Will Surpass 3DS/DS Lifetime (Japan)

NSW will be....

Under 3DS lifetime 1 2.86%
 
Over 3DS but nowhere near DS 9 25.71%
 
Close to DS (30mil+) 19 54.29%
 
Become #1 (Surpass DS) 6 17.14%
 
Boy Bye!! 0 0.00%
 
Total:35
RolStoppable said:
Beating the 3DS is merely a common sense prediction.
Getting to 30m lifetime isn't a stretch at all.
Beating the DS has a chance of far more than 1%. I'd put it at 33/67.

2020 is heading for a LTD of 17m by the end of the year. Afterwards we have the usual rundown of price cuts and revisions, but I want to remind people that portable consoles are personalized devices, so selling different colors and special editions is an additional appealing proposition which especially the lower priced Lite model can take advantage of.

Beyond that, what is the Japanese console market going to look like in the coming years? The XSX is bound to be virtually a non-factor, the PS5 won't sell well. So the simple question is whether Japan will continue to buy Switch consoles or if the console market will greatly suffer. I expect the former, so there's still a good bunch of 3-5m years for Switch ahead of us, hence why 30m lifetime won't be hard to reach. If Switch averaged 3m per year from 2021-2024, it would hit ~29m by the end of 2024.

Using medium projections for LTD by the end of...

2020: ~17m
2021: ~21.5m
2022: ~25m
2023: ~28m
2024: ~30m
2025: ~31m
2026: ~31.5m (end of life)

If Nintendo decides to squeeze out everything of Switch in the same way they did it for the 3DS, then Switch will become the #1 console of all time in Japan. Switch is a lot healthier than the 3DS was, so of course it has a far greater ceiling.

Another thing I want to touch up on specifically for 2020/2021 is the fact that even with no software releasing for the rest of the year, people forget its new consumers buying the product. With the massive backlog of sales evergreens and Software, demand is the highest it’s ever been.

this can be thanked by AC of course but another driver that’s really pushing it is RFA, game is sold out as soon as it’s available. A fitness game as well as a jrpg is acting like Pokémon from GB era!

of course there will be new software but we are still in a period where lotteries are happening, not only for HW but for a game as well.

i still think this year won’t satisfy demand and next year will be a spill over especially when hardware is able to ship out as much as they can. We are already well over 3months of shortages lol.

Imo

2020 5.5mil-6mil (depends on how much they ship)

2021 5mil-6mil 



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tbone51 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I do think Switch will outsell the DS, but it will be close.  Probably in the 35m range +/- 2m.  3DS + Vita is about 31m and they just need to take a few extra million from the PS4 (instead of it going to PS5) and they're there.  (And I'll count the Wii U numbers as overlap between the systems.)

Switch is selling like crazy in Japan, and yet they are still not providing nearly enough.  That means Switch sales are going to be high in Japan next year too.  Projected sales for Switch look something like this:

FY DS 3DS Switch Switch FY
1 2.12 1.06 0.6 2017
2 4.78 4.79 3.78 2018
3 9.12 5.69 3.85 2019
4 6.36 4.35 5.21 2020
5 4.01 3.07 7 2021
6 4.01 2.36 6 2022
7 2.35 1.99 4.5 2023
8 0.23 1.39 3 2024
9 0.01 0.48 0.5 2025
10 0.09 0.46 2026
11+ 0.08 0.1 2027
Total 32.99 25.35 35

What numbers are those? Nintendo shipments?

Yeah, I used shipments by fiscal year.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
tbone51 said:

What numbers are those? Nintendo shipments?

Yeah, I used shipments by fiscal year.

Ok thanks, after first 4 FY...

DS 2238k

3DS 1589k

NSW 1344k

your FY might be high at 7mil, only cuz can Nintendo ship that much? A 7mil FY in japan probably be over 28mil shipped WW o.O



tbone51 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Yeah, I used shipments by fiscal year.

Ok thanks, after first 4 FY...

DS 2238k

3DS 1589k

NSW 1344k

your FY might be high at 7mil, only cuz can Nintendo ship that much? A 7mil FY in japan probably be over 28mil shipped WW o.O

Switch is in short supply in many countries, but in Japan the scarcity is extra severe.  I do expect Switch to be in short supply in many places throughout the holidays.  However in the first quarter of 2021 Japan ought to get more than a proportional share (and even then it still might be in short supply).  Demand in Japan is far higher than they are supplying right now.



As it stands, the Switch is definitely set to surpass 3DS when all is said and done. Surpassing DS is definitely at least possible, cuz I think the Switch is still years away from hitting its peak. Throw in upgraded SKUs and special edition Lites that’ll encourage current owners to buy another one, and surpassing the DS will become much more likely.



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Updating weekly

Q3 3DS vs NSW

W27: 27.5k / 52.2k [Gap 1698k]
W28: 57.0k / 96.9k [1658k]
W29: 41.5k / 113.2k [1587k]
W30: 42.5k /
W31: 41.2k /
W32: 41.9k /
W33: 50.2k /
W34: 33.2k /
W35: 34.7k /
W36: 27.9k /
W37: 44.9k /
W38: 47.4k /
W39: 32.8k /
Tot: 537k / 262.3k



nuckles87 said:
As it stands, the Switch is definitely set to surpass 3DS when all is said and done. Surpassing DS is definitely at least possible, cuz I think the Switch is still years away from hitting its peak. Throw in upgraded SKUs and special edition Lites that’ll encourage current owners to buy another one, and surpassing the DS will become much more likely.

Yeah hoping to see a Plus/Pro/Premium/whatever you wanna call it version of the Switch maybe late next year. I've never bought more than one version of a system before but I could see me possibly upgrading to an improved Switch model in the future.



The Switch passing the 3DS in Japan is certainly possible, maybe even likely. While the Switch has racked up a huge deficit, that deficit is rapidly shrinking, and that's because the 3DS was clearly more front-loaded. Since they were released at nearly the same time of year (Feb. 26 vs. March 3), we can do a direct aligned comparison with no need for additional caveats:

Assuming it doesn't experience a huge drop next year and can keep eroding its deficit at the same rate, it should end up with a surplus against the 3DS within the next 18-24 months.

Passing the DS, however, is a much, much taller order:

By time the Switch Lite was released, the Switch had managed to rack up a massive deficit against the DS, which was posting absolutely insane sales for nearly two years after its own Lite model was released. While they were released at different times of year (which makes launch-aligned comparisons less accurate), if we exclude the DS's launch holiday sales, the Switch had a deficit of over 8.9M units by the week before the Lite was released. While it has eroded that deficit somewhat, its deficit is still at about 7.3M units. Even if the Switch were to maintain the same level of sales it current does, it will still have a huge deficit remaining at the end of 2021. And again, we're not accounting for the 1.5M units the DS sold in Dec. 2004.

While the Switch will probably pass the 3DS, I don't see any scenario where it passes the DS. The 3DS sold 24.5M units. The DS meanwhile sold 33M units. That's a huge gap, one I don't see the Switch crossing. It may not even make it to the 30M mark. No Nintendo system has ever been that back-loaded in Japan, and I doubt new models or price cuts will make it so back-loaded as to give it a shot at passing the DS.



Switch won't surpass DS unfortunately. Part of DS demography went to mobile gaming, and they aren't coming back to handheld gaming anytime soon



Shadow1980 said:

The Switch passing the 3DS in Japan is certainly possible, maybe even likely. While the Switch has racked up a huge deficit, that deficit is rapidly shrinking, and that's because the 3DS was clearly more front-loaded. Since they were released at nearly the same time of year (Feb. 26 vs. March 3), we can do a direct aligned comparison with no need for additional caveats:

Assuming it doesn't experience a huge drop next year and can keep eroding its deficit at the same rate, it should end up with a surplus against the 3DS within the next 18-24 months.

. No Nintendo system has ever been that back-loaded in Japan, and I doubt new models or price cuts will make it so back-loaded as to give it a shot at passing the DS.

Going to focus only on the 3DS part for this reply, first off scratch the 18-24months part, it’ll be between. 6-10months at this rate.

3DS vs NSW Quarter Aligned

End of 2019 —> Gap 3311k
End of March -> Gap 2302k
End of June —> Gap 1723k

Gap is currently 1587k as of last week. 3DS sold 537k in the same quarter and NSW is aiming for well over 1mil. Gap will be under 1mil before Oct begins so gap should be anywhere between 300k-700k by end of the year. 3DS sold 638k in Q1 and NSW will beat that easily by a margin come Jan-Mar.

Only thing holding back NSW right now is stock. There is even a possibility though very small it could beat it launch aligned by dec.

Also I wouldn’t put in so much stock into japan history as NSW isn’t following any trend of hardware before it. NSW could very well do 5mil next year as well without a price cut.