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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Extra BOLD + Not BOLD Prediction! NSW Will Surpass 3DS/DS Lifetime (Japan)

 

NSW will be....

Under 3DS lifetime 1 2.78%
 
Over 3DS but nowhere near DS 9 25.00%
 
Close to DS (30mil+) 19 52.78%
 
Become #1 (Surpass DS) 7 19.44%
 
Boy Bye!! 0 0%
 
Total:36

Q3 3DS vs NSW

W27: 27.5k / 52.2k [Gap 1698k]
W28: 57.0k / 96.9k [1658k]
W29: 41.5k / 113.2k [1587k]
W30: 42.5k / 125.2k [1505k]
W31: 41.2k / 86.6k [1460k]
W32: 41.9k / 173.3k [1329k]
W33: 50.2k /
W34: 33.2k /
W35: 34.7k /
W36: 27.9k /
W37: 44.9k /
W38: 47.4k /
W39: 32.8k /

Tot: 537k / 647k



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Q3 3DS vs NSW

W27: 27.5k / 52.2k [Gap 1698k]
W28: 57.0k / 96.9k [1658k]
W29: 41.5k / 113.2k [1587k]
W30: 42.5k / 125.2k [1505k]
W31: 41.2k / 86.6k [1460k]
W32: 41.9k / 173.3k [1329k]
W33: 50.2k / 148.7k [1230k]
W34: 33.2k /
W35: 34.7k /
W36: 27.9k /
W37: 44.9k /
W38: 47.4k /
W39: 32.8k /

Tot: 537k / 796k



Yeah, passing the 3DS should be no issue whatsoever. The DS is the real challenge.



PAOerfulone said:
Yeah, passing the 3DS should be no issue whatsoever. The DS is the real challenge.

Need more heavy hitters, may a New AAA 2D Mario and Switch Sports? 



Agente42 said:
PAOerfulone said:
Yeah, passing the 3DS should be no issue whatsoever. The DS is the real challenge.

Need more heavy hitters, may a New AAA 2D Mario and Switch Sports? 

A new AAA 2D Mario would certainly do the trick. Especially if its ambition and production values are along the lines of what we usually get from 3D Mario (64/Galaxy/Odyssey).

Switch Sports... Ehhh, maybe. I’m really not too sure on that one.



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PAOerfulone said:
Agente42 said:

Need more heavy hitters, may a New AAA 2D Mario and Switch Sports? 

A new AAA 2D Mario would certainly do the trick. Especially if its ambition and production values are along the lines of what we usually get from 3D Mario (64/Galaxy/Odyssey).

Switch Sports... Ehhh, maybe. I’m really not too sure on that one.

Stock and RFA is all they need for 2021 lmao



Q3 3DS vs NSW

W27: 27.5k / 52.2k [Gap 1698k]
W28: 57.0k / 96.9k [1658k]
W29: 41.5k / 113.2k [1587k]
W30: 42.5k / 125.2k [1505k]
W31: 41.2k / 86.6k [1460k]
W32: 41.9k / 173.3k [1329k]
W33: 50.2k / 148.7k [1230k]
W34: 33.2k / 70.1k [1193k]
W35: 34.7k /
W36: 27.9k /
W37: 44.9k /
W38: 47.4k /
W39: 32.8k /

Tot: 537k / 866k



So I have famitsu DS numbers. This one is tricky cuz some years DS adjusted numbers so I up some of the quarters (varies between 10k-50k most) but it’s pretty accurate and I got the total year numbers.

Anyways enjoy!!!

Note DS started with holiday quarter so it isn’t the fairest comparison but it is what it is....


Q# — NSW - DS

Q1: 565k - 1096k
Q2: 476k - 713k
Q3: 767k - 523k
Q4: 1599k - 750k
Q5: 684k - 2017k
Q6: 484k - 1533k
Q7: 595k - 2576k
Q8: 1719k - 2244k
Q9: 954k - 2510k
Q10: 531k - 1949k
Q11: 1035k - 1936k
Q12: 1974k - 1535k

At this point DS was at 19.38mil vs NSW 11.38mil so literally an 8mil gap. That’s a lot and impossible to catch up..... sike!!

Now for interesting part.....(Q13 and Q17 are DS holiday)

Q13: 1703k - 1724k
Q14: 964k -1064k
Q15: *866k - 530k
Q16: ????k - 687k
Q17: ????k - 1749k

In Q15 it’s currently DS 22.70mil and NSW is 14.91mil which means the gap is shortened to 7.79mil minus what ever NSW sells in the next 5 weeks.

If NSW does extremely well in Q4 and match Q1 with DS holiday then I think gap will be at 6mil. It’s a longggg road but let’s see



DS was also a lot cheaper at £99 at launch, when adjusted for inflation that is £153 today which means it was half the price of what NS was at launch and still is now 4 years in.



Ok adding in some touches for 3DS vs NSW


Y1-Y3: 14.69mil <> 11.38mil [Gap 3.31mil]

Q??: 3DS vs NSW

Year4
Q13: 691k -1703k [+1012k] Gap 2298k
Q14: 374k - 964k [+590k] Gap 1708k
Q15: 537k - 866k [+327k] *Gap 1193k
Q16: 1557k (120k Weekly)
Tot: 3153k

Year 5
Q17: 638k (49k Weekly)
Q18: 295k (23k Weekly)
Q19: 428k (33k Weekly)
Q20: 829k (64k Weekly)
Tot: 2190k 

Year 6
Q21: 453k (35k weekly)
Q22: 234k (18k weekly)
Q23: 337k (26k weekly)
Q24: 850k (65k weekly)
Tot: 1874k

Year 7
Q25: 667k (51k weekly)
Q26: 218k (17k weekly)
Q27: 499k (38k weekly)
Q28: 443k (34k weekly)
Tot: 1827k

Year8
Q29: 225k (17k weekly)
Q30: 106k (8k weekly)
Q31: 110k (8k weekly)
Q32: 125k (10k weekly)
Tot: 566k

Last edited by tbone51 - on 29 August 2020