Passing the 3DS is a given at the moment IMO. Doing 30 million can be achieved as well, though DS like numbers are IMO out of reach at the moment. I would say anywhere between 28-31 million will be the final tally.

But is this even a question by this point? I mean the system is flying of shelves as fast as Nintendo can manufacture them.

Yeap, if 3ds sells close to 6mil this year the gap will be under 500k, add to the fact that 3ds next 3 years did 2.2mil and 1.8/1.9mil each NSW should surpass it easily. This is with massive shortages lol

Yeap, I have to look but possibly by Q1 next year 

Hmm I had 30 million as a "maaaaaaybe" in an earlier post but now looking at the 3DS numbers and the fact that it did 24.5 million I could see Switch beating it by 6 million. So I'd say 28 mil is the lowball estimate, 29mil is likely, 30mil definitely a possibility tho not guaranteed, 31mil stretch goal, 32 super stretch goal and only possible if next year Switch does 5+ million again, and I'm still gonna put the DS out of reach.

Animal Crossing can do most the heavy lifting this year with hopefully two or three other major titles still coming at end of the year. Next year should have a lot more output considering delays for this year. So Nintendo kind of lucked out dropping AC this year because that is a true system seller in Japan and is pretty much the top franchise in Japan now. I don't see sales slowing down in Japan anytime soon.

As of now, lotteries are still a thing and it won’t end before Sept comes. If this is true while maintaining great weekly sales, then they really don’t need any games to push the system.

and your post is missing a major piece.... Ring fit adventure. This game is pushing hardware of the Og model and is the best new up leg game in japan since Pokémon red/blue

I do think Switch will outsell the DS, but it will be close.  Probably in the 35m range +/- 2m.  3DS + Vita is about 31m and they just need to take a few extra million from the PS4 (instead of it going to PS5) and they're there.  (And I'll count the Wii U numbers as overlap between the systems.)

Switch is selling like crazy in Japan, and yet they are still not providing nearly enough.  That means Switch sales are going to be high in Japan next year too.  Projected sales for Switch look something like this:

What numbers are those? Nintendo shipments?

Another thing I want to touch up on specifically for 2020/2021 is the fact that even with no software releasing for the rest of the year, people forget its new consumers buying the product. With the massive backlog of sales evergreens and Software, demand is the highest it’s ever been.

this can be thanked by AC of course but another driver that’s really pushing it is RFA, game is sold out as soon as it’s available. A fitness game as well as a jrpg is acting like Pokémon from GB era!

of course there will be new software but we are still in a period where lotteries are happening, not only for HW but for a game as well.

i still think this year won’t satisfy demand and next year will be a spill over especially when hardware is able to ship out as much as they can. We are already well over 3months of shortages lol.

Imo

2020 5.5mil-6mil (depends on how much they ship)

2021 5mil-6mil