| Shadow1980 said: The Switch passing the 3DS in Japan is certainly possible, maybe even likely. While the Switch has racked up a huge deficit, that deficit is rapidly shrinking, and that's because the 3DS was clearly more front-loaded. Since they were released at nearly the same time of year (Feb. 26 vs. March 3), we can do a direct aligned comparison with no need for additional caveats:
Assuming it doesn't experience a huge drop next year and can keep eroding its deficit at the same rate, it should end up with a surplus against the 3DS within the next 18-24 months. |
Going to focus only on the 3DS part for this reply, first off scratch the 18-24months part, it’ll be between. 6-10months at this rate.
3DS vs NSW Quarter Aligned
End of 2019 —> Gap 3311k
End of March -> Gap 2302k
End of June —> Gap 1723k
Gap is currently 1587k as of last week. 3DS sold 537k in the same quarter and NSW is aiming for well over 1mil. Gap will be under 1mil before Oct begins so gap should be anywhere between 300k-700k by end of the year. 3DS sold 638k in Q1 and NSW will beat that easily by a margin come Jan-Mar.
Only thing holding back NSW right now is stock. There is even a possibility though very small it could beat it launch aligned by dec.
Also I wouldn’t put in so much stock into japan history as NSW isn’t following any trend of hardware before it. NSW could very well do 5mil next year as well without a price cut.
