NSW will be.... | |||
| Under 3DS lifetime | 1 | 2.78% | |
| Over 3DS but nowhere near DS | 9 | 25.00% | |
| Close to DS (30mil+) | 19 | 52.78% | |
| Become #1 (Surpass DS) | 7 | 19.44% | |
| Boy Bye!! | 0 | 0% | |
| Total: | 36 | ||
tbone51 said:
What numbers are those? Nintendo shipments? |
Yeah, I used shipments by fiscal year.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Yeah, I used shipments by fiscal year. |
Ok thanks, after first 4 FY...
DS 2238k
3DS 1589k
NSW 1344k
your FY might be high at 7mil, only cuz can Nintendo ship that much? A 7mil FY in japan probably be over 28mil shipped WW o.O
tbone51 said:
Ok thanks, after first 4 FY... DS 2238k 3DS 1589k NSW 1344k your FY might be high at 7mil, only cuz can Nintendo ship that much? A 7mil FY in japan probably be over 28mil shipped WW o.O |
Switch is in short supply in many countries, but in Japan the scarcity is extra severe. I do expect Switch to be in short supply in many places throughout the holidays. However in the first quarter of 2021 Japan ought to get more than a proportional share (and even then it still might be in short supply). Demand in Japan is far higher than they are supplying right now.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
As it stands, the Switch is definitely set to surpass 3DS when all is said and done. Surpassing DS is definitely at least possible, cuz I think the Switch is still years away from hitting its peak. Throw in upgraded SKUs and special edition Lites that’ll encourage current owners to buy another one, and surpassing the DS will become much more likely.
Updating weekly
Q3 3DS vs NSW
W27: 27.5k / 52.2k [Gap 1698k]
W28: 57.0k / 96.9k [1658k]
W29: 41.5k / 113.2k [1587k]
W30: 42.5k /
W31: 41.2k /
W32: 41.9k /
W33: 50.2k /
W34: 33.2k /
W35: 34.7k /
W36: 27.9k /
W37: 44.9k /
W38: 47.4k /
W39: 32.8k /
Tot: 537k / 262.3k
| nuckles87 said: As it stands, the Switch is definitely set to surpass 3DS when all is said and done. Surpassing DS is definitely at least possible, cuz I think the Switch is still years away from hitting its peak. Throw in upgraded SKUs and special edition Lites that’ll encourage current owners to buy another one, and surpassing the DS will become much more likely. |
Yeah hoping to see a Plus/Pro/Premium/whatever you wanna call it version of the Switch maybe late next year. I've never bought more than one version of a system before but I could see me possibly upgrading to an improved Switch model in the future.
Switch won't surpass DS unfortunately. Part of DS demography went to mobile gaming, and they aren't coming back to handheld gaming anytime soon
| Shadow1980 said: The Switch passing the 3DS in Japan is certainly possible, maybe even likely. While the Switch has racked up a huge deficit, that deficit is rapidly shrinking, and that's because the 3DS was clearly more front-loaded. Since they were released at nearly the same time of year (Feb. 26 vs. March 3), we can do a direct aligned comparison with no need for additional caveats:
Assuming it doesn't experience a huge drop next year and can keep eroding its deficit at the same rate, it should end up with a surplus against the 3DS within the next 18-24 months. |
Going to focus only on the 3DS part for this reply, first off scratch the 18-24months part, it’ll be between. 6-10months at this rate.
3DS vs NSW Quarter Aligned
End of 2019 —> Gap 3311k
End of March -> Gap 2302k
End of June —> Gap 1723k
Gap is currently 1587k as of last week. 3DS sold 537k in the same quarter and NSW is aiming for well over 1mil. Gap will be under 1mil before Oct begins so gap should be anywhere between 300k-700k by end of the year. 3DS sold 638k in Q1 and NSW will beat that easily by a margin come Jan-Mar.
Only thing holding back NSW right now is stock. There is even a possibility though very small it could beat it launch aligned by dec.
Also I wouldn’t put in so much stock into japan history as NSW isn’t following any trend of hardware before it. NSW could very well do 5mil next year as well without a price cut.
| tbone51 said: Updating weekly Q3 3DS vs NSW W27: 27.5k / 52.2k [Gap 1698k] W28: 57.0k / 96.9k [1658k] W29: 41.5k / 113.2k [1587k] W30: 42.5k / 125.2k [1505k] W31: 41.2k / W32: 41.9k / W33: 50.2k / W34: 33.2k / W35: 34.7k / W36: 27.9k / W37: 44.9k / W38: 47.4k / W39: 32.8k / Tot: 537k / 387.5k |
updated with W30, W31 looks to have a drop but might still be around 90k-100k going by reports and then W32 will be huge before Obon week comes. NSW will surpass 3DS quarter by a margin with 7weeks left
Q3 3DS vs NSW
W27: 27.5k / 52.2k [Gap 1698k]
W28: 57.0k / 96.9k [1658k]
W29: 41.5k / 113.2k [1587k]
W30: 42.5k / 125.2k [1505k]
W31: 41.2k / 86.6k [1460k]
W32: 41.9k /
W33: 50.2k /
W34: 33.2k /
W35: 34.7k /
W36: 27.9k /
W37: 44.9k /
W38: 47.4k /
W39: 32.8k /
Tot: 537k / 474.1k
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