I don't know what your point of saying by 2024 new tech will have arrived, it seems you are agreeing with me. Yes new tech will arrive in 2024: Switch 2. Your comment doesn't even seem to be an answer to mine, I'm not even sure what you're talking about in the first part. Yes new tech will be here in 2024, yes Nintendo has plenty of support, yes Nintendo is not in an direct arms race with MS/Sony. Agreed on all accounts, nothing about that suggests that Nintendo will cut off the Switch super early.

As to your second part commenting to scottslater, yes you are definitely missing something. The something that you are missing is that the Switch is the hottest thing in the gaming industry for the past 10+ years. It is GAINING momentum in year 4 and hasn't even had a price cut, and is likely to have another version (premium version?) come out at some point, and you suggest it will be replaced before it has even been on the market for 6 years. It is in the middle of its lifecycle and you suggest Nintendo will be replacing it in less than 2.5 years! That makes no sense. Assuming this is the Switch's peak year, it could still sell 20 million next year...and you think it should be replaced the year after it is likely to sell around 20 million (a number that PS4 never even hit and it was kept on the market for 7 years, not under 6). A holiday 2022 replacement means Nintendo decided they needed to cut the Switch's lifespan early because it didn't do that well, obviously we know reality is the opposite of that assessment. Nothing about how the Switch has done suggests there is any reason to cut it off early, rather the opposite, which is why a 2024 Switch 2 launch is likely.

You just said generations are meaningless when a new generation of systems is literally coming out in 4 months...ultimate facepalm

Well for one the system keeps selling like crazy. Then Ninty saying it's a family and not one console do more revisions to come.  And them literally saying it's gonna be longer than most cycles again and again. Plus Ninty is it's own market right now. It's not competing with any other console. Mark my words even.

Its meaningless to consumers, we already went through a number of years where Switch saw consistent growth, everywhere outside of Japan & Asia this growth didn't impact Playstation or Xbox sales.

This basically means that Nintendo was able to differentiate itself from the twins and was bought alongside them or by people who aren't even into gaming. From a consumer perspective, the new generation of systems isn't competing with the Switch, thus talking about Switch 2 needing to release in order to compete with them is nonsensical. 

no

We won't know until 2 more years tbh. We need to see how fast Sony will drop the PS4 and what Nintendo is going to do with the Switch.

They said they are looking to make it live longer, then it means late price cut, new models, special editions etc.
They could try to hold the sales next year with a price cut, a new model and start doing more bundles and big titles.

Ok I understand what you are saying now. While I would certainly disagree that generations are meaningless to consumers, if that were try there would be no excitement for the next gen of xbox and playstation, I do agree that Switch isn't really directly competing with them - but that is very different than saying generations don't matter to consumers. Switch is a hybrid that has an entire library of games that will never come to the other systems, while the other two are very similar that get very similar type games. That has nothing to do with generations, but I mean I get what your intent was.

I think anything before holiday 2023 replacement is too early, and anything later than holiday 2024 is too late. Spring 2024 is the sweet spot, or if Switch sales are slowing drastically in 2023 then a holiday 2023 release would be fine too.

Switch still has loads of first party games people are waiting on, it hasn't even cut its price a single time yet, or even offered much in the way of holiday discounts, it has yet to price their first party games below full price, and almost undoubtedly it'll have a premium version of the system come out at some point, likely when they drop the price. Furthermore there is no need to drop the price right now because the games are selling like crazy and Nintendo can't even make enough systems to meet demand. The system is still gaining momentum now in its fourth year without taking any measures to spur sales other than the Switch Lite. Nintendo is holding all the cards right now. All they need to do is keep the great games coming and slowly pull those levers (hardware price drops, software price drops, new hardware version) after Switch sales peak, and this thing should keep going strong for several more years.

Generations is only meaningless if you live in a Nintendo World. 

PS3 > PS4/Pro > PS5

X360 > X1/X1X > XSX

The generations are very clear and the upcoming generation is going to be a very nice upgrade in terms of power and graphics. Very much looking forward to it. 

Nintendo was never able to keep up in the hardware department, this is why the generations seems deluge to people who only follows Nintendo. 

Actually generations still matter in a "Nintendo World." The difference between GameCube to Wii to Wii U to Switch is pretty clear cut. But for PS and Xbox, I don't get what generations would mean after the upcoming gen. Like they can't market grpaphucs anymore because things already look so damn realistic and they are also eliminating loading times, the only improvements left would be incremental or in CPUs and stuff that aren't as marketable to make a new gen.

Like them saying 8k 60fps doesn't sound all that enticing because the human eye wouldn't be able to tell the difference between 4k and 8k unless the TV screens become huge as hell. And 4k 120fps would be weird because most TVs don't have 120Hz refresh rate. Gens are still pretty easy for Nintendo right now even without another Ninty innovation but gens are becoming really hard for the twins and Xbox already sees a future in streaming so they might become even a bit more useless once that kicks off.