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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Phil Spencer Says Xbox Series X Games Aren't Being Held Back By Xbox One

DonFerrari said:
goopy20 said:

There's a pretty big price difference between a RTX2080 Super and a GTX1060, though.

Still console makers pay a very different price on the GPU part or their APU compared to PC parts.

From the breakdown of PS4 and X1 I remember something like less than 100 USD cost for the GPU. And for this new gen I doubt the cost of GPU for PS5 and XSX is over 200 USD.

So even if it was possible to pay 1/3 the cost for the 1/3 of the power (it isn't, because the chips cost to manufacture doesn't scale linearly, you'll always have the optimum curve where a size and speed will be the most cost efficient and the reduction of any in let's say 50% won't net 50% saving in cost, similarly when going above then a increase in 50% may even be 100% more costly).

So if I had to guess all the saving possibles for Lockhart (cost, not final price since that may be dependent on willingness to take loss)

If remove disc - 30 USD

Lower performance GPU - 50 USD

Less RAM - 50 USD

Slightly less powerfull CPU - 20 USD

So it could undercut XSX by 150 USD. Daniel Ahmad estimate XSX BOM to be between 460 and 520. If we go for the lowest option we could say that Lockhart would cost at least 300 to build plus other costs to ship to retail and their cuts MS to sell it at 299 would need to subside 50 bucks (quite regular sub). So for Series X to sell for the triple it would mean 900 USD (won't happen) and for they to sell for the double it would be 599 (so about 70 of profit). If they just sell for the price of the BOM it would be 300 vs 460 or 35% less (which is already a good saving, I wouldn't buy the low entry because I prefer to have the best performance possible for a reasonable price and saving 150 USD to have 1/3 of the graphic performance even with everything else up to par isn't for me, but sure I can see a lot of people interested in it even more if they use gamepass and xbl subs for a long term contract and person can walk out with console+gp+xbl for 0 upfront payment and perhaps 30-40 USD/month meaning they will have games available for the life of the console basically paying just the subs they would pay anyway and a very small additional monthly cost to pay for the console). Still your 1/3 or 1/2 of the price seems very off the curve.

I see something like this, Lockhart no disc 299 (50 subside), PS5 no disc 399 (100 subside), PS5 with disc 499 (no subside), XSX 549 (no subside).

I think the is something off about that pricing. If the Series S does end up being 299 and Disc-less then the is no way is the PS5 Digital going to be just 100 more then Series S and 100 less then the base PS5 at 499. I could see series S maybe being 299 for a disc version.

And massive savings can be made on gpus. The is a big difference in price between an gtx1660TI and gtx2080TI.



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zero129 said:
DonFerrari said:

Still console makers pay a very different price on the GPU part or their APU compared to PC parts.

From the breakdown of PS4 and X1 I remember something like less than 100 USD cost for the GPU. And for this new gen I doubt the cost of GPU for PS5 and XSX is over 200 USD.

So even if it was possible to pay 1/3 the cost for the 1/3 of the power (it isn't, because the chips cost to manufacture doesn't scale linearly, you'll always have the optimum curve where a size and speed will be the most cost efficient and the reduction of any in let's say 50% won't net 50% saving in cost, similarly when going above then a increase in 50% may even be 100% more costly).

So if I had to guess all the saving possibles for Lockhart (cost, not final price since that may be dependent on willingness to take loss)

If remove disc - 30 USD

Lower performance GPU - 50 USD

Less RAM - 50 USD

Slightly less powerfull CPU - 20 USD

So it could undercut XSX by 150 USD. Daniel Ahmad estimate XSX BOM to be between 460 and 520. If we go for the lowest option we could say that Lockhart would cost at least 300 to build plus other costs to ship to retail and their cuts MS to sell it at 299 would need to subside 50 bucks (quite regular sub). So for Series X to sell for the triple it would mean 900 USD (won't happen) and for they to sell for the double it would be 599 (so about 70 of profit). If they just sell for the price of the BOM it would be 300 vs 460 or 35% less (which is already a good saving, I wouldn't buy the low entry because I prefer to have the best performance possible for a reasonable price and saving 150 USD to have 1/3 of the graphic performance even with everything else up to par isn't for me, but sure I can see a lot of people interested in it even more if they use gamepass and xbl subs for a long term contract and person can walk out with console+gp+xbl for 0 upfront payment and perhaps 30-40 USD/month meaning they will have games available for the life of the console basically paying just the subs they would pay anyway and a very small additional monthly cost to pay for the console). Still your 1/3 or 1/2 of the price seems very off the curve.

I see something like this, Lockhart no disc 299 (50 subside), PS5 no disc 399 (100 subside), PS5 with disc 499 (no subside), XSX 549 (no subside).

I think the is something off about that pricing. If the Series S does end up being 299 and Disc-less then the is no way is the PS5 Digital going to be just 100 more then Series S and 100 less then the base PS5 at 499. I could see series S maybe being 299 for a disc version.

Disc is only 30 in cost and I put Sony subsiding 100 for the discless PS5 exactly to combat Series S pricing. But as I said I can be wrong on all 4, but still the price to manufacture Series S likely isn't much less than 150 less than XSX. And mainly that just because the GPU is 1/3 the power doesn't mean it will cost 1/3 to make or will sell for 1/3 the price.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Pemalite said:
SvennoJ said:

720p is fine for me as well from the couch. At 12ft, 65", WiiU still looks good.
Plus my cable provider is still at 720p / 1080i, still looks good.

So sure, make it 720p on Lockhart. The trick is, 720p scales up very nicely to a 4K tv. 1080p tv not so nicely.
1440p is also 1.5:1 scaling to 4K (same as 720p to 1080p), but since the dpi is much higher it's less of a problem with scaling.
Time for 8K tvs to make 1440p upscaling 3:1 :)

1080P scales perfectly to a 4k TV.

4k is 3840x2160.
1080P is 1920x1080.

You are just quadrupling your pixel counts or doubling on each axis instead of triple with 720P.

Scaling is a tricky and complex issue, mostly due to scalers doing a few passes on an image to clean it up and thus have different effectiveness.

1440P is 2560x1440.
720P is 1280x720.

That is also a quadrupling in pixel counts.


Consoles do the upscaling as well now and can use a lot more temporal information to get great results when upscaling to 4K.
Last gen you had actual 720p output which a 1080p tv would display with overscan.

4K tvs simply triple the pixels per axis (with some smoothing I assume) for 720p while the consoles scale to 4K from variable resolutions for the best result. Hence 1440p to 4K upscale looks much better than last gens 720p to 1080p tv.

It depends on what Lockhart does with the image how good a 720p game will look. I guess there will be plenty options in system settings.
Output 720p for 720p tvs and 4K tvs.
Output 1080p with internal upscale to 1080p for the best results on 1080p tv.
Actually it will probably just use an internal scale for whatever display resolution you connect it to. Less latency if the tv doesn't have to do it.

Last gen the 360 also had an internal scaler but it wasn't that great. I remember setting the output to 720p to get a sharper image on my 1080p projector while playing Alan Wake. With the 360 set to 1080p the image looked slightly worse. Not a fair comparison though, $4000 projector with high end scaling vs a cheap console.



I was a bit obsessed with image quality last gen lol. For example my analysis of 360 vs ps3 output

Standard grey palette from RGB 0,0,0 to 255,255,255 with ps3 set to Full RGB and 360 to Expanded and projector calibrated to use the full range for both. Picture taken with a Nikon D40 (which had a smaller contrast range than the projector but the difference is visible)

The 360 applied a gamma correction to make everything darker. Hence if you calibrated your TV for the 360, ps3 would look washed out. If you calibrated your TV for ps3, 360 suffered from black crush. Calibrating both to make full use of the brightness range, 360 still looks a bit darker overall. (Can't have 128,128,128 at 50% brightness while still having both 0,0,0 and 255,255,255 at black and full white)

Developers had to compensate for that gamma correction. It makes visuals pop more, but black crush destroyed details in darker areas. It was still there at the beginning of this gen with XBox One, dunno if MS has abandoned it now or if developers are still compensating for the gamma correction. I guess it should be gone with HDR. (Seems XBox One still has black crush https://www.reddit.com/r/xboxone/comments/f28gsv/black_crush_is_ruining_the_xbox_one_x_for_me/ https://www.avforums.com/threads/xbox-one-s-black-crush.2126564/)

Leave the display to do the color, brightness and contrast corrections, while the console handles the upscaling.



DonFerrari said:
zero129 said:

I think the is something off about that pricing. If the Series S does end up being 299 and Disc-less then the is no way is the PS5 Digital going to be just 100 more then Series S and 100 less then the base PS5 at 499. I could see series S maybe being 299 for a disc version.

Disc is only 30 in cost and I put Sony subsiding 100 for the discless PS5 exactly to combat Series S pricing. But as I said I can be wrong on all 4, but still the price to manufacture Series S likely isn't much less than 150 less than XSX. And mainly that just because the GPU is 1/3 the power doesn't mean it will cost 1/3 to make or will sell for 1/3 the price.

Like i said depending on the gpu the can be a massive saving in price. even more so if they expect Series S to sell more then Series X.

Do you really think that the series S, That has a lower GPU, Les ram, and a slightly less faster cpu and no disc then the Series X is only going to allow them to shave 150 off the cost of Series X but Sony is going to shave 100 off the cost of the PS5 by just removing the disc?.



zero129 said:
DonFerrari said:

Disc is only 30 in cost and I put Sony subsiding 100 for the discless PS5 exactly to combat Series S pricing. But as I said I can be wrong on all 4, but still the price to manufacture Series S likely isn't much less than 150 less than XSX. And mainly that just because the GPU is 1/3 the power doesn't mean it will cost 1/3 to make or will sell for 1/3 the price.

Like i said depending on the gpu the can be a massive saving in price. even more so if they expect Series S to sell more then Series X.

Do you really think that the series S, That has a lower GPU, Les ram, and a slightly less faster cpu and no disc then the Series X is only going to allow them to shave 150 off the cost of Series X but Sony is going to shave 100 off the cost of the PS5 by just removing the disc?.

Shave of cost and price is different. Look again the price I put.

I put specifics on what I expect the discless Series S to save on cost and after that gave subsiding for it so it is Series S at 299 versus XSX at 549 so it is 250 difference not 150.

And for PS5 discless I put 100 of Sony eating the cost to make it more attractive to market not that it will cost 100 less to make, that will also be like only 30 bucks or some couple dollar due to packging and shell.

Again XSS at 299 (MS losing 50 per unit), PS5 no disc 399 (100 more than Series S, but Sony taking 100 loss), PS5 with disc 499 (Initially I imagined PS5 would be at most 449, but with two models I can see they going for 499 on the disc version and losing like 50 per console like PS4 did), and XSX going for 549 (50 loss per console) and could even be 599 if they want to say they are premium and not take loss because they really want to sell XSS.

PS5 BOM versus XSX difference in estimative is 30-50 bucks (Daniel Ahmad).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari said:
zero129 said:

Like i said depending on the gpu the can be a massive saving in price. even more so if they expect Series S to sell more then Series X.

Do you really think that the series S, That has a lower GPU, Les ram, and a slightly less faster cpu and no disc then the Series X is only going to allow them to shave 150 off the cost of Series X but Sony is going to shave 100 off the cost of the PS5 by just removing the disc?.

Shave of cost and price is different. Look again the price I put.

I put specifics on what I expect the discless Series S to save on cost and after that gave subsiding for it so it is Series S at 299 versus XSX at 549 so it is 250 difference not 150.

And for PS5 discless I put 100 of Sony eating the cost to make it more attractive to market not that it will cost 100 less to make, that will also be like only 30 bucks or some couple dollar due to packging and shell.

Again XSS at 299 (MS losing 50 per unit), PS5 no disc 399 (100 more than Series S, but Sony taking 100 loss), PS5 with disc 499 (Initially I imagined PS5 would be at most 449, but with two models I can see they going for 499 on the disc version and losing like 50 per console like PS4 did), and XSX going for 549 (50 loss per console) and could even be 599 if they want to say they are premium and not take loss because they really want to sell XSS.

PS5 BOM versus XSX difference in estimative is 30-50 bucks (Daniel Ahmad).

Do you honestly think MS is only willing to lose 50 on Series-S vs Sony losing 100?.

In all honestly i could see a 299 "Disc" Series-S but if its all Digital too like the PS5 digital imo no way MS will only be 100 Cheaper and take a 50 lose while Sony takes a 100 lose. IF its all digital i 100% expect the system to sell for max 249. Unless they release just the Series X now in a few months release Series-S and Series-S Digital for 299 and 249. So pretty much we have XBSD@259 XBSS@299 and XBSX@499.



SvennoJ said:
This is a strange turn of events, XBox One X has been discontinued
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2020-07-16-microsoft-officially-discontinues-xbox-one-x-and-xbox-one-s-all-digital-edition
And another all digital edition bites the dust. Will the discless PS5 survive a whole generation?

So next gen will start with XBox One S, Series S and Series X. (Or Series S comes later)

Is as if something soon is replacing the 1x. Could it be that the series x is just a replacement for the 1x like someone alluded to before?

That's me getting a bit smug by the way. :p



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

eva01beserk said:
SvennoJ said:
This is a strange turn of events, XBox One X has been discontinued
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2020-07-16-microsoft-officially-discontinues-xbox-one-x-and-xbox-one-s-all-digital-edition
And another all digital edition bites the dust. Will the discless PS5 survive a whole generation?

So next gen will start with XBox One S, Series S and Series X. (Or Series S comes later)

Is as if something soon is replacing the 1x. Could it be that the series x is just a replacement for the 1x like someone alluded to before?

That's me getting a bit smug by the way. :p

Psst Goopy here. Somehow I got banned again for speaking the truth.

In any case, I come in peace guys! Look, I'm sorry if I upset certain people and I honestly didn't just spend months raving on about all of this because I hate Xbox or despice Xbox fans. I'm just seriously disappointed with MSs strategy for next gen and the specs of their actual base next gen console, that's all.

Like I've been saying all along, Series X will simply be a replacement for the X1X and Lockhart will be MS's official successor to the Xone S - not some by product for the casuals. We'll just have to wait and see what that all means, especially compared to Sony's old-fashioned hard reset approach. But I do hope we can discuss it further as civilized men after the 23rd :)

In the meantime, I'll just leave this here...

Also price prediction time:

  • Lockhart           $299
  • ps5 digital only $399 
  • ps5                  $499
  • Series X           $599

Sony will take a bit of a hit on the digital only version but they will compensate that by making a bit more profit from the normal version.  

Last edited by FutzNutz - on 17 July 2020

SvennoJ said:
This is a strange turn of events, XBox One X has been discontinued
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2020-07-16-microsoft-officially-discontinues-xbox-one-x-and-xbox-one-s-all-digital-edition
And another all digital edition bites the dust. Will the discless PS5 survive a whole generation?

So next gen will start with XBox One S, Series S and Series X. (Or Series S comes later)

That’s easy, each one will make way for Lockhart. Lockhart is overall superior to Xbox X and also digital like the Series S Digital. Both consoles are obsolete soon and might as well clear them out before launch. 



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

sales2099 said:
SvennoJ said:
This is a strange turn of events, XBox One X has been discontinued
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2020-07-16-microsoft-officially-discontinues-xbox-one-x-and-xbox-one-s-all-digital-edition
And another all digital edition bites the dust. Will the discless PS5 survive a whole generation?

So next gen will start with XBox One S, Series S and Series X. (Or Series S comes later)

That’s easy, each one will make way for Lockhart. Lockhart is overall superior to Xbox X and also digital like the Series S Digital. Both consoles are obsolete soon and might as well clear them out before launch. 

It's unprecedented to discontinue current gen consoles before the next gen starts. But I guess the X sales were so low, might as well stop production now and sell what's left. It was a well made machine, but if Lockhart is truly full BC and runs all XBox One games better or equal than they did on the X for equal or better price, then it makes sense. Perhaps the XBox One X is still pretty expensive to make, it never came down in price here. Heck already removed from best buy, only available from online marketplace for CAD 590. CAD 650 on Amazon, 4 left!