Yea most of the time they leak numbers when they are making records but sales were down this month overall. Only the Switch was up.
Anyway, we'll have Nintendo's numbers in a couple of days and we'll be able to judge for ourselves
| xMetroid said: Yea most of the time they leak numbers when they are making records but sales were down this month overall. Only the Switch was up. Anyway, we'll have Nintendo's numbers in a couple of days and we'll be able to judge for ourselves |
I don't even think that was confirmed either. The only thing that was mentioned was that hardware was down YOY across the board 17% in dollar sales and the first decline since Feb of this year. If the Switch was the only one up I am sure they would have mentioned it.
| noshten said: My predictions were way off Sounds like Sony is not manufacturing that many PS4s and Microsoft is flat at best. Nintendo seemingly ran out of enough stock to see huge growth but Switch is basically selling what they can ship, so the shipped numbers for the quarter will be very close to sell-through to consumers. This will give us a good basis for what to expect in Q3 in terms of per month sales. Software sales are fantastic for TLOU2 and for Animal Crossing and other evergreen games. Still can't believe GTA isn't on the Switch, the game would instantly be a million-seller. Considering new consoles were announced it was a matter of time that stock would run out. The current situation in manufacturing & supply chains right now means that Sony can't manufacture enough PS4 and PS5 simentenously. Nintendo cant scale-up manufacturing as fast as they would probably want for hardware and Ring Fit Adventure. While with Microsoft they don't need to manufacture that many X1 to begin with so they are probably seeing some growth YoY across all markets but are ready to transition to the new gen hence X1X is no longer being produced. We shall see when the official numbers come out but this is what I'm reading from the NPD PR. |
NPD Resetera Estimate for June(5 Weeks)
[NSW]: 513K
[PS4]: 200K
[XB1]: 115K
NPD Resetera Estimates for May(4 Weeks)
[NSW]: 530K
[PS4]: 156K
[XBO]: 151K
June average per week result
[NSW]: 102.6K
[PS4]: 40K
[XB1]: 23K
May average per week result
[NSW]: 132.5K
[PS4]: 39K
[XB1]: 37.75K
My bad prediction
[NSW] 666K(+154K)
[PS4] 300K(+100K)
[XBO] 200K(+85K)
Overall Switch supply was down, Microsoft not sure if it's the demand or lack of stock, while Sony kept around the same amount of stock on the shelves.
Looking at the current results in terms Japan, expect July Switch supply to be up again, interested how the PS4 and XBO do now that the next-gen is revealed.
Last edited by noshten - on 30 July 2020
Apparently an analyst has been providing numbers and a user there matches them to the closes prediction on their forum, thus not revealing the real numbers but providing very close estimates. You can read one of their prediction threads, this is more of a game that reveals some numbers that people choose to believe and base for future predictions.
Of course, we would never know if these numbers are actually real until a company subscribed to the NPD reveals some of them officially. Also the past few months Patcher for some reason has been disclosing some numbers.
Damn so Switch would have an average of 100k a week on June. Is that I line with what we got here ? I dont even remember.
| xMetroid said: Damn so Switch would have an average of 100k a week on June. Is that I line with what we got here ? I dont even remember. |
For the 5 week June NPD period, VGC has these numbers for Switch USA sales:
108487
107670
109353
109337
104062
So if the leak is accurate, VGC is close but slightly overtracked.
Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
XBox: Kenjabish
| The_Liquid_Laser said: NSW: 550k |
NPD Resetera Estimate for June(5 Weeks)
[NSW]: 513K
[PS4]: 200K
[XB1]: 115K
(Assuming these numbers are correct) I feel pretty comfortable on my estimates of the top 2. I really overestimated the XB1 though. I should have known better.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
Since there are not pubblic estimates, i won't update the OP this month.
Just plus guys, do not use the #1 ERA prediction as "leaks", that's not this work...
| Shadow1980 said: Since that's the best we're going to have for now, I'll plug in the Era estimates into my data set. And now, chart time!
If and when we get better data, I will update all the data points. Anywho, not much to say. The COVID-19 bubble obviously popped for the PS4 & XBO after April. Barring any significant margins or error with the Era estimates, and they are back to being down from the same months last year. Meanwhile, with the Switch the bubble hasn't so much popped as it has slowly deflated. It's still up YoY, but not by nearly as much as before (~56%, compared to 145% in May and 256% in April), and in terms of weekly averages is down ~22.6% from May. Assuming continued declines in both YoY increases and weekly averages, then at this rate the Switch will be flat or down YoY by August (though in YTD terms it will still be up significantly from 2019). It could settle back down to a baseline on par or slightly higher than last year, but given where it was and how it was trending YoY-wise prior to the outbreak I doubt we will see significant YoY increases for much longer. July could very well be the last month for that. I like seeing the Switch do well so I hope I'm wrong, but my honest prediction is that nearly all of the YoY increases for the Switch this year will have been from the COVID bump. It should end the year at somewhere around 7M in the U.S., bringing its LTD total to around 17.5M. |
Looking at the monthly averages in Japan, its more about supply than COVID bubble deflating demand for the Switch and the same could be said of Sony in the West.
Simply put all console manufacturers weren't ready to expand production to fully realize the amount of supply they would need around COVID.
I'd be surprised when seeing the data in Japan in July if Switch isn't up significantly in the West once the supply is stable. It seems Nintendo has been able to scale up production with the diversification of its vendors in Vietnam where it's likely they are producing the Switch Lite. You can go to Amazon.com right now and again you would notice that it's sold out and selling for $399 through resellers - this talks about demand still not being met and it's a similar situation elsewhere. Switch is sold as soon as it arrives and Nintendo is selling whatever they could ship. Even in a Sony dominated market like the UK units are selling for £350 through resellers, in France, Germany, Spain the cheapest copy from resellers is around 369 euro.
Currently, I believe that the only places that have anywhere near enough stock to meet demand are those closes to their supply chain.. so Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the rest of Asia. The major growth we would be seeing during the summer would come from this region. While I think supply would probably normalize in the West around August/September.
Last edited by noshten - on 02 August 2020
noshten said:
Looking at the monthly averages in Japan, its more about supply than COVID bubble deflating demand for the Switch and the same could be said of Sony in the West. Simply put all console manufacturers weren't ready to expand production to fully realize the amount of supply they would need around COVID. I'd be surprised when seeing the data in Japan in July if Switch isn't up significantly in the West once the supply is stable. It seems Nintendo has been able to scale up production with the diversification of its vendors in Vietnam where it's likely they are producing the Switch Lite. You can go to Amazon.com right now and again you would notice that it's sold out and selling for $399 through resellers - this talks about demand still not being met and it's a similar situation elsewhere. Switch is sold as soon as it arrives and Nintendo is selling whatever they could ship. Even in a Sony dominated market like the UK units are selling for £350 through resellers, in France, Germany, Spain the cheapest copy from resellers is around 369 euro. Currently, I believe that the only places that have anywhere near enough stock to meet demand are those closes to their supply chain.. so Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the rest of Asia. The major growth we would be seeing during the summer would come from this region. While I think supply would probably normalize in the West around August/September. |
The peak, the major driven sales, is Animal Crossing. COVID helps, but the true system sellers are Animal Crossing not COVID. Animal Crossing always a big hit, but the potential scope grows. The hybrid system with good games brought appreciation to Nintendo franchises. In this system, games sell more for longer because they reinforce Nintendo's sales policy.
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