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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS5 and Xbox Series X combined will sell less than 120M.

So...somehow the Switch will sell 100M units, but PS5 and Xbox SX combined will only sell 20M more...nah. I think both consoles might have a slower start due to COVID, but they'll get rolling. The games people want and didn't know they wanted will show up and the consoles will continue to sell.

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I think you can't count out MS that easy. I don't see the Series X doing that much worse than the Xbox one when it literally was HATED since it was announced and they really f**ked their PR for the first years while sony mastered it. This time there is more of a shared excitement sure a little most on the PS side (coming off the PS4 that's normal) but i think we should wait for the MS conference and the prices. Locals are easy to change side and a really nice conference from MS can turn things around in the US atleast.

I also don't think the 2 consoles combined will fall that much WW. Maybe the Switch could impact a little since last gen the Wii U flopped but i doubt the impact will be that big.

I would say just based on current hype and expecting higher prices : 90 millions PS5 and 65 millions of Xbox series X
But again, things can really turn around.

I can't buy into this.

PC's are not going to replace Consoles, and Consoles won't replace PC. Streaming will offer an option, but even in the best case, I don't expect it to be the main form of gaming in most homes for many more years.

Consoles are flat out the best way to consume media on a large screen in the home. PC and Smart TV's are no threat to Console's in your average household. Picking up a PlayStation or Xbox Controller and pressing the Home button turns on everything in your Media Center and opens you up to a nearly unlimited mutlimedia expereince. It is as simple and convenient as it gets, and that is what the majority of people are looking for when they sit down on the couch.

These new consoles are going to make things even more simple and convenient, while completely eleminating wait time. That is going to be a major selling point for both next gen consoles. When people see games and apps loading instantly on PS5 and XBS it will get PS4 and XBO users running out to upgrade ASAP. I won't be surprised to see many using Set Top Boxes and Smart TVs make a leap to the new consoles, when they see just how smoothly they move between content. There is nothing more annoying for most people than trying to move through content or apps, while shaking their remote at the TV/Set Top box as it fails to smoothly respond to their inputs.

I fully expect PS5 and XBS to once again land in the 150 - 200 Million range, just as these consoles have done for the last 20 years.

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I pre-ordered my PS5 last friday when I picked up The Last of Us (Game Mania Belgium).

Most people in line did the same. I believe just in that half an hour there were around 5 or 6 pre - orders. Just for that store i'm in the mid 300 range of amount of pre-orders. The average in Belgium for each store was closing into 400. In Netherlands and Belgium there are towards 70 stores and if numbers in both countries are similar that would amount to more than 24k PS5's from one chain already. I have never witnessed this craze on PS5. Every person in in Belgium knows about this console. It came on national news and various channels. A lot of people want it already.

If Sony can have the supply we will see records.

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Definitively not agree with this.
Series X is hard to predict, but i think PS5 will sell 100 million. Can't see XSX bombing so hard to not reach 20 million.

Overall sales of Playstation and XBOX have been very consistent in the past generation, and i don't see a Huge drop like that.

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Get that plate of crow ready.

There is a chance both the PS5 DE and Xbox Lockhart come in less than $400 with the latter looking to be a $300 machine. Sony is cultivating markets in emerging countries that will grow in the PS5's lifecycle. MS is in overall better position with their studios and vision which should lead to higher lifetime sales.

In terms of high end sales, I can see the Xbox Series X reach anywhere from 60 to 70 Million, while the PS5 reaches 130 - 140 Million. Low end sales will easily be above the 120 Million combined. There is still a chance for the PS4/Xbox One to outsell the PS360 lifetime units combined.

I really don't think so.
Xbox Series X seems to be learning from the Xbox One's shortcomings. Now is there a chance that Xbox Series X could be the Dreamcast of Xbox? Critically acclaimed but sells about the same or worse than its immediate predecessor which leads to the end of Xbox consoles? Yes, there is a chance. But I would say that's not the most likely outcome. And Phil Spencer said the Series X is not planned to be the last Xbox. I mean I know you don't want to admit the end before the console even releases, but he's probably right.
The PS5 won't sell as much as the PS4. And it sure as heck won't touch the PS2. But in a bad situation, PS5 will manage right around the lifetime sales of the PS3.
My relatively pessimistic prediction would be that the two combined sell 130 million. But I think they'll likely sell 145-150 million combined.

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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I think PS5 will sell less than ps4, but more than PS3, maybe on par wth PS1.
Xbox, I think it will sell on par with xbox one.
I think a low budget lockheart version can push these numbers.
So, 150 to 160M

BTW, In terms of technology, I think is a bigger leap than gen7 to gen 8.

Lol... you know next-gen is around the corner when the doom and consoles are irrelevant threads start to pop up.

If you had said something like 150m combined, I would have agreed; realistically though, the only way the XSX and PS5 sell that little is if streaming takes off.