I suspect that the animal crossing diving update will drive more sales.

I mean Animal Crossing New Horizon can only sell based on the number of new Switches available,

So if there are weeks with 20-40K Hardware sales, Animal Crossing could even fall below 20K.  

I think Animal Crossing will sell to at least 60% of new Hardware owners every week until the end of the year. The bigger question is how much can the Switch actually sale in Japan this year? 5 Million is guaranteed... 6 million is doable... but can it hit 7 million? There are certain things beyond fixing Supply that Nintendo can do, New Horizon DLC/Expansion plans, big holiday titles, holiday or permanent price cuts, new colors, new models, Ring Fit bundles... 

It will be interesting how much they supply during Obon summer holidays in Japan. That will give us an idea about what we can expect in December. 

7 million in Japan would be insane lol. Won't say impossible though.

For sure the last device to hit 7 million was DS in 2007...

As a reminder, although there were many games that sold 1M on the DS that year, nothing can compare with what Animal Crossing New Horizon will end up selling by the end of the year. 

Top 10 DS 2007

1 Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time / Explorers of Darkness - 1.256.516
2 Mario Party DS - 1.232.644
3 New Super Mario Bros - 1.176.939
4 Pokémon Diamond / Pearl - 1.094.389
5 Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen - 1.052.827
6 Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day! - 1.033.933
7 Mario Kart DS - 910.771
8 Yoshi's Island DS - 896.814 
9 Animal Crossing: Wild World - 858.501 
10 The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 839.395 

TOTAL: 10.352.729

I'm not sure how much Software Switch will sale this year but we are already at 8M for the Top 10 with another 6 months to go... very early prediction without even knowing what to expect until the end of the year. 

Animal Crossing >7M

Ring Fit Adventure >2M

Pokemon Sword/Shield, Clubhouse Games, Breath of the Wild 2 >1M

So from the Top 5 I'm already looking at 12M, rest of Top 10 at 750K on average would mean a Top 10 of 15.75M. Depending on when Pokemon Snap launches and how it's received it's another title that coult hit 1M this year. 

Even if Animal Crossing and Ring Fit end up doing less due to lack of supply, it will still be massively bigger than the last huge year DS had. 

Nothing will ever come close to topping 2006 however...

1. Pokémon Diamond / Pearl - 4.302.815
2. New Super Mario Bros - 3.818.214
3. Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day! - 3.748.638
4. Animal Crossing: Wild World - 2.485.264
5. Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day! - 1.991.116
6. Weak English Adult DS Training: English Pickled - 1.529.618
7. Mario Kart DS - 1.115.082
8. Tetris DS - 985.246
9. Final Fantasy III - 935.390
10. Kanshuu Nippon Joushikiryoku Kentei Kyoukai - 916.600

TOTAL: 21.827.983

I mean, it's not really that surprising that a Western AAA action game didn't move a ton of hardware in Japan; they do seem to have warmed up a little to these kind of games in recent years but it's still not the country's genre of choice. 

Last of Us numbers seem good. Should be around 250k with digital. Probably 400k life time in Japan. Not bad.

https://gonintendo.com/stories/363927-japanese-software-sales-for-june-15th-to-21st-2020-top-30

1. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (SIE, 06/19/20) – 178,696 (New)
2. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 73,680 (4,934,168)
3. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo, 06/05/20) – 32,673 (144,297)
4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 32,663 (1,038,732)
5. [NSW] Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 7 (Koei Tecmo, 06/18/20) – 14,062 (New)
6. [NSW] Namcot Collection (Bandai Namco, 06/18/20) – 9,532 (New)
7. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 9,251 (2,995,705)
8. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (The Pokemon Company, 11/15/19) – 9,195 (3,630,263)
9. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Bundle Version Included) (Nintendo, 07/21/17) – 7,886 (3,463,228)
10. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 6,137 (3,731,453)
11. [NSW] Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition (Bundle Version Included) (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 6,067 (1,419,967)
12. [PS4] The Last of Us Remastered (PlayStation Hits) (SIE, 07/26/18) – 5,883 (95,343)
13. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition (Nintendo, 05/29/20) – 4,972 (120,497)
14. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 4,485 (1,471,823)
15. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima’s Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo, 12/27/19) – 3,494 (250,565)
16. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Limited Edition Included) (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 3,043 (1,600,539)
17. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo, 06/28/19) – 2,848 (928,253)
18. [NSW] Zumba Burn It Up! (Sega, 06/18/20) – 2,590 (New)
19. [NSW] Luigi’s Mansion 3 (Nintendo, 10/31/19) – 2,548 (655,982)
20. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (01/11/19) – 2,486 (854,682)
21. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix, 04/10/20) – 2,383 (929,239)
22. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition (Bargain Edition Reprint) (Rockstar Games, 12/06/18) – 2,176 (64,732)
23. [NSW] Ace Angler: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco, 07/25/19) – 1,918 (446,536)
24. [NSW] Variable Barricade NS (Idea Factory, 06/18/2) – 1,876 (New)
25. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age – Definitive Edition (Limited Edition Included) (Square Enix, 09/27/19) – 1,715 (528,651)
26. [NSW] Kotoba no Puzzle Moji Pittan Encore (Bandai Namco, 04/02/20) – 1,578 (25,487)
27. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo, 10/27/17) – 1,465 (2,104,701)
28. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun (Bandai Namco, 07/19/18) – 1,456 (484,562)
29. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf Amiibo+ (Nintendo, 11/23/16) – 1,329 (513,607)
30. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX (03/06/20) – 1,328 (259,513)

NSW - 25

PS4 - 4

I mean, 2007 is just spillover from 2006's lineup.

2006... yeah combine mainline pokemon for a new gen with a 2d mario title AND an animal crossing title.... on a handhled... in japan.... that just guarentees 15+ mil.

If they want 7 mil, I can see one thing that can potentially confirm a 7 mil sell though, perhaps even 8 mil.... a proper new traditional mainlaine MH title.

come on capcom that just money sitting on the table, that would sell at least twice as well as MHW in japan.

You gotta wonder how good of an English learning software "Weak English Adult DS Training: English Pickled" really is with a title like that.

Oof! Switch domination. I wonder if we will see a all Switch top 30.