dark_gh0st_b0y said:
JWeinCom said:
if you wanna blame me for posting 49% instead of 53% - in favοr of black people anyway - then blame me, I don't really note sources just numbers, as this is a casual gaming forum and not a formal university meeting, sorry I forgot that you always look to prove me wrong no matter what, I'll make sure to note all the sources next time
Yes. I absolutely blame you for posting two numbers, neither of which are substantiated by any official source. One was apparently pulled out of thin air (you still can't provide any source even a bad one) and the other was made by manipulating data. That's straight up spreading misinformation, and considering the context of that information, it is absolutely unacceptable. Even if the data is correct or close(I don't know what the actual figure is) you posted it with complete disregard for its accuracy. If you don't give a shit about making sure your information is accurate, you don't give a shit about whether or not your conclusion is accurate. Simple as that.
You posted information that is wrong, and you got called on it. When I read something I want to make sure it's accurate. It's called skepticism, and it's a good approach to take if you care about believing true things. Stop acting like that's some sort of personal vendetta against you. If you don't want to be called out for posting misinformation, then don't post misinformation.
a randomly chosen sample of 10,000 is considered more than enough in statistics to represent the population of a million, used in election polls, dna sampling and soooo much more, the unknowns will closely follow the rest of the data anyway, if you think 10000/15000 is not enough to draw a general representation of US murders, then I would suggest reading a statistics book (how sampling relates to the margin of error and levels of confidence) or stop reading numerical data all together since it should all be meaningless under your views
of course murders unresolved are not exactly 'random' but still, unless you accuse FBI of deliberately turning blind when it comes to white murderers and declaring them as unresolved, and blaming black people with every chance, then the unknowns play a relatively small role, 6x as many murders is too huge to be balanced by that - even if the white murders are super genius and hide their guilt, it is unrealistic to expect it to be 6x as much to balance things out...
Uhhhhh... I didn't say anywhere that 10,000 was not enough people. Cool strawman though.
What I said was that I don't know if the sample is random. And there could be reasons why it is not random besides bias. For instance, if rural and suburban areas are less likely to report race when it comes to murders as opposed to urban areas, or vice versa, that would seriously significantly skew the data. Or if people in urban areas just happen to commit more murders in general, then that would also skew the data. Just one factor. And again, I shouldn't have to repeat this, but if you narrow the data to black and white, you are ELIMINATING 15% OF YOUR DATA SET, in which case I'm not sure how the sample can actually be random.
Without knowing more about the methodology, I can't say anything more than what the data itself shows. When 1/3 of your data is unknown, you need to know why it is unknown before you can extrapolate.
I never said that music videos/rappers in jail are evidence, just a rough idea when compared to white rappers, open music videos with millions of views and fans is very different from evil pedophile Priests that do crime in utter secrecy while playing the divine, if they were publicly admitting it and still had millions of supporters then by all means, your impression would be reasonable
If it's a factor in creating your impressions, then that's evidence to you. Information on which you are basing a decision. And if that's the kind of thing you're basing your impressions on your epistemology is fucked. And priests still have millions of supporters despite the fact that this is public knowledge... So... my conclusion that Christians are disproportionately pedophiles is legit?
and for Christ's sake, I never said the cop killings are justified... I had not even fully drawn my conclusions, I was waiting for more responses to shape them up, I'll write a separate post with my opinion and the data that led me towards it :P
"Don't you think that perception, expectations and fear originate from African Americans committing more crimes, especially murders in the long term? I mean, if 50% of the murders traditionally come from the African Americans 13% minority, wouldn't the policemen be more scared for their lives and more biased, therefore more ready and less hesitating to kill someone if he is black?"
"It would make sense that the high criminality rates from African Americans must be the main source of racism, and police brutality to some extend."
Please stop being disingenuous.
And maybe you shouldn't write a separate post with your opinion. Maybe if you're taking data from wikipedia, looking up numbers without caring what their source is, posting graphs that you don't understand, getting "impressions" from rap videos, and relying on people from a gaming forum to inform your opinion... then maybe you don't know enough to have an intelligent opinion on race relations and police brutality in a foreign country...
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come on, there are no pedophile priests that still have their place or supporters... unlike black rappers that get more popular by talking about guns and drugs in their music (e.g. 69 out of jail, straight to No3 on Billboard), it's just not the same
I believe the unknowns are cases still in trial or unresolved? not sure if/when the data is updated but we are talking about the FBI here, what would be the point of releasing statistics if the method of recording them is highly skewed by things like rural/urban areas as you suggest...
I am sorry that the 49% figure is inaccurate or outdated yes, but it would not lead me/anyone to wrong conclusions anyway, you are only making it a big matter because you disagree with me in general, if I was someone who agrees with you, you wouldn't bother to ask for sources at all...
find reasons to declare the statistics as inaccurate does not make them ineligible, my point is not whether they commit 4x or 6x more crimes, the point is that they commit significantly more such to take it into account
"Don't you think that perception, expectations and fear originate from African Americans committing more crimes, especially murders in the long term? I mean, if 50% of the murders traditionally come from the African Americans 13% minority, wouldn't the policemen be more scared for their lives and more biased, therefore more ready and less hesitating to kill someone if he is black?"
"It would make sense that the high criminality rates from African Americans must be the main source of racism, and police brutality to some extend."
I am asking by suggesting my dear, as I said above, shaping up my opinion, not being absolute, not stating it
by that thinking of yours no one should have an opinion about matters, where shall I base my opinion on if not statistics, mass trends and asking other people for more opinions/articles/numbers? you are acting as if I'm about to publish my opinion on the news :P
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I believe the unknowns are cases still in trial or unresolved? not sure if/when the data is updated but we are talking about the FBI here, what would be the point of releasing statistics if the method of recording them is highly skewed by things like rural/urban areas as you suggest...
I have no idea. That's why I'm not making any conclusions. As for why the FBI releases data as they do, you'd have to ask them for methodology. Many agencies simply report the data that they have access to. The FBI is not conducting a scientific study, they're not trying to create a random sample.
Again, there are only categories for black and white, so the rest of the population is most likely represented in that data to some extent. I don't think this data point has any relevance in this conversation, and don't care enough to look it up. If you think it is, then you should probably do a little of that thing called research to find out how the statistics came about.
I am sorry that the 49% figure is inaccurate or outdated yes, but it would not lead me/anyone to wrong conclusions anyway, you are only making it a big matter because you disagree with me in general, if I was someone who agrees with you, you wouldn't bother to ask for sources at all...
Far as I can tell, it's not just inaccurate or outdated... it's literally made up. You still haven't said where that figure came from.
Please back up that claim if you're going to make accusations... I do not yet have an opinion on this matter, so I don't exactly agree with anyone. I definitely disagree with some people though... People who are posting misinformation.
Let's not forget that you started this by asking people what they thought about the statistics you posted. I told you that your statistics are wrong, and actually provided a source. How dare I :-/
find reasons to declare the statistics as inaccurate does not make them ineligible, my point is not whether they commit 4x or 6x more crimes, the point is that they commit significantly more such to take it into account
Wait what? The statistics being inaccurate does not make them ineligible? Yes... yes it absolutely does. O_o... Don't even know what to say to the assertion that invalid statistics are usable. And this is the disingenuousness that's running through this whole thing.
"I based my opinion on these statistics."
"But those statistics are wrong..."
"Oh well, sure the statistic may be wrong, but my point is still right."
If this is the case, then the opinion came first and was in no way guided by the statistics. Does that make your point wrong? Not necessarily. But it makes it obvious that the conclusion came first.
And 4 times vs 6 times is absolutely a huge difference... If you're arguing that there's a correlation between police brutality and crime rate, then 4 times versus 6 times is incredibly statistically significant. Before you send me that statistics book you suggested, you should probably skim it first.
And of course you're still making up random stats you can't support. As of 2017, black people made up 27% of arrests. Less than half as much as white people. Definitely not significantly more.
They are still overrepresented in terms of arrests, which again is different than committing crimes. They are still overrepresented, but only by about 2x. A much smaller amount, which can way more likely be based to a large extent on enforcement strategies or non-racial factors such as poverty levels and such.
These are facts which are easily accessible to you (FBI statistics). You should look them up before making claims. Don't you think you should look up those statistics before making claims?
I am asking by suggesting my dear, as I said above, shaping up my opinion, not being absolute, not stating it
When claim your explanation makes sense, you're stating it's a valid conclusion, or at least that you believe it's a valid conclusion. Especially when you say it "must be the case". You are claiming the proposition that "it must be the case that crime rates are the cause of racism" makes sense. That's a conclusion.
"Just asking questions" is a common example of bad faith argument, and a very common trolling tactic. It's a way to make put forward a position while maintaining plausible deniability. It makes sense that since you're using common troll tactics, you must be a troll. Don't you think you're a troll?
Now, if you call me out for accusing you of trolling and I say "oh no no, I was just asking a question to shape my opinion good sir" would you buy that? (For the record I'm not accusing anyone of anything, just giving an example.)
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Just_asking_questions
https://katenasser.com/people-skills-professional-replace-the-deadly-dont-you-think-leadership/
https://www.phrasemix.com/phrases/dont-you-think
Stop being disingenuous.
by that thinking of yours no one should have an opinion about matters, where shall I base my opinion on if not statistics, mass trends and asking other people for more opinions/articles/numbers? you are acting as if I'm about to publish my opinion on the news :P
No. By that thinking people should only express an opinion after they have done sufficient research on the topic. Not after looking for data on wikipedia, asking people who are not experts, and looking at statistics while admittedly not caring where there source is from or if the statistics are actually accurate. Of course, the level of research one should do is also in proportion to the importance of the topic.
Honestly, how much time have you spent researching this issue? Do you think that amount of research is enough to form an accurate conclusion?
Last edited by JWeinCom - on 14 June 2020