dark_gh0st_b0y said:
JWeinCom said:
"Thanks for the links. These numbers confirm my initial quote of 49% reported by FBI for 2015, since it is 53% of murders committed by African Americans if you exclude the unknowns, the overall picture does not change. The sample is big enough anyway."
So... the number you posted 49%. Is actually not reported anywhere by the FBI... but if we ignore a huge chunk of the data it would be 53%... So the number you reported, which was not 53%, is actually right..?
If you ignore the "unknown" category, you're limiting it to black and white which ignores huge categories of people. Mixed race, hispanics who are non-black and not white etc. And you can't just ignore a third of the data set. A sample doesn't simply have to be large, it has to be representative, and if you just throw out 1/3 of the data, it might not be. You'd have to know a lot more about why the unknown category is unknown before you can alter the data like that. And of course, we're still nowhere near the 6:1 ratio of crime that you're claiming.
Honestly, where did the 49% figure come from?
"You are right for the homicide chart, it is victims instead of murders! It still helps us to find out who kills who. If half the murders are committed by African Americans and they are also the most victims by far, then it seems they kill each other a lot. Pretty ironic for the BLM movement... : /"
You still don't seem to know what this chart actually shows. It doesn't show how often the races are victims of homicide, it shows the prevalence of homicide as a cause of death in that race vs other potential causes of death, specifically among a narrow age range. That's a completely different statistic.
In the graph you posted the bar for black people is 4x that for white people. In actuality, they are victims about 1.2 times as often. I'd hardly say they're the most victims "by far". You could have actually looked up the actual data really easily.
"Oh what a discovery, it's google and wikipedia yes, time optimization you know? I don't wanna waste ages to reach the same statistics. I never did a deep research/analysis on the matter, nor did I claim to. I suggested a possible explanation, and since I am not American I'm looking for other opinions in order to better understand what's going on and shape mine. That's why my first line on the thread was "any comments on this chart?"
Asking for comments does not mean you are actually looking into the issue. It depends on how open you actually are to changing your position. I'm not saying that's what's going on here, but posting something inflammatory and saying "Golly gee, what do you guys think about this" is a pretty common form of trolling.
It took me literally less than a minute to google "FBI murder statistics". I'm not expecting a thesis here, but why use decade old data from an unreliable source when recent data from official sources is readily available? The amount of effort you put into gathering the information makes me question how much you care about coming to a reasonable conclusion.
And yes I had an impression of how black crime rates are higher, judging from trending music videos and the rappers that ended up in jail...
Seriously? Music videos and rappers are evidence? Should I assume Christians have a higher rate of pedophilia because of all the Catholic priests that are pedophiles? If this is how you're making judgments, your epistemology is fundamentally flawed.
And if crime figures that relate police and black people do not relate to the conversation by you, then what does? If you have something that relates more then share it.
So... you don't have an explanation then of why the number of murders is relevant to the subject of police brutality? I honestly don't see why the murder rate would justify that. I didn't make a claim, so I have nothing to bring up. You're the one who brought it up dude, it's your job to connect the dots.
Of course there are many factors that relate to the numbers we have, which you already mentioned and I agree, but the overall picture is too obvious to be altered by those. When a 13% of the population does 50% of the murders and has an equal prison population with the 72%, it is clear that in US there is a big issue with crime from African Americans and police is obviously handling it very very badly.
Yeah, there's a problem with crime and African Americans, either with enforcement or actually committing crimes... And this justifies the rate of cop killings you posted because..?
"You're wrong on pretty much every count." and you are always right O.K.
Doesn't change the fact that what you said was demonstrably wrong. If I said something wrong, then feel free to point it out so I can adjust my position accordingly.
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I never said that music videos/rappers in jail are evidence, just a rough idea when compared to white rappers, open music videos with millions of views and fans is very different from evil pedophile Priests that do crime in utter secrecy while playing the divine, if they were publicly admitting it and still had millions of supporters then by all means, your impression would be reasonable
if you wanna blame me for posting 49% instead of 53% - in favοr of black people anyway - then blame me, I don't really note sources just numbers, as this is a casual gaming forum and not a formal university meeting, sorry I forgot that you always look to prove me wrong no matter what, I'll make sure to note all the sources next time
a randomly chosen sample of 10,000 is considered more than enough in statistics to represent the population of a million, used in election polls, dna sampling and soooo much more, the unknowns will closely follow the rest of the data anyway, if you think 10000/15000 is not enough to draw a general representation of US murders, then I would suggest reading a statistics book (how sampling relates to the margin of error and levels of confidence) or stop reading numerical data all together since it should all be meaningless under your views
of course murders unresolved are not exactly 'random' but still, unless you accuse FBI of deliberately turning blind when it comes to white murderers and declaring them as unresolved, and blaming black people with every chance, then the unknowns play a relatively small role, 6x as many murders is too huge to be balanced by that - even if the white murders are super genius and hide their guilt, it is unrealistic to expect it to be 6x as much to balance things out...
have in mind that we are not talking about 20% or 50% more murders, but a whooping 600%, sure the factors you mentioned play a role but there is no way they would make a difference as huge to make this a close call... even in the most conspiracy against blacks scenario
and for Christ's sake, I never said the cop killings are justified... I had not even fully drawn my conclusions, I was waiting for more responses to shape them up, I'll write a separate post with my opinion and the data that led me towards it :P
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if you wanna blame me for posting 49% instead of 53% - in favοr of black people anyway - then blame me, I don't really note sources just numbers, as this is a casual gaming forum and not a formal university meeting, sorry I forgot that you always look to prove me wrong no matter what, I'll make sure to note all the sources next time
Yes. I absolutely blame you for posting two numbers, neither of which are substantiated by any official source. One was apparently pulled out of thin air (you still can't provide any source even a bad one) and the other was made by manipulating data in a completely illogical way in an attempt to justify yourself. That's straight up spreading misinformation, and considering the context of that information, it is absolutely unacceptable. This may be a video game forum, but we're not talking about video games here. You're making a claim about how often a group of people is to commit murder. That's not the kind of topic where you should be flinging around numbers without checking their accuracy.
You posted information that is wrong, and you got called on it. When I read something I want to make sure it's accurate. It's called skepticism, and it's a good approach to take if you care about believing true things. Stop acting like that's some sort of personal vendetta against you. If you don't want to be called out for posting misinformation, then don't post misinformation.
a randomly chosen sample of 10,000 is considered more than enough in statistics to represent the population of a million, used in election polls, dna sampling and soooo much more, the unknowns will closely follow the rest of the data anyway, if you think 10000/15000 is not enough to draw a general representation of US murders, then I would suggest reading a statistics book (how sampling relates to the margin of error and levels of confidence) or stop reading numerical data all together since it should all be meaningless under your views
of course murders unresolved are not exactly 'random' but still, unless you accuse FBI of deliberately turning blind when it comes to white murderers and declaring them as unresolved, and blaming black people with every chance, then the unknowns play a relatively small role, 6x as many murders is too huge to be balanced by that - even if the white murders are super genius and hide their guilt, it is unrealistic to expect it to be 6x as much to balance things out...
Uhhhhh... I didn't say anywhere that 10,000 was not enough people. Cool strawman though.
What I said was that I don't know if the sample is random. And there could be reasons why it is not random besides bias. For instance, if rural and suburban areas are less likely to report race when it comes to murders as opposed to urban areas, or vice versa, that would seriously significantly skew the data. Or if people in urban areas just happen to commit more murders in general, then that would also skew the data. Just one factor.
And again, I shouldn't have to repeat this, but if you narrow the data to black and white, you are eliminating about 15% of your data set. The 53% number you're claiming only works if non-white hispanics, native americans, asians, and every other racial group never ever commits homicide. So, the 49% number is bs, and the 53% is also bs.
Without knowing more about the methodology, I can't say anything more than what the data itself shows. When 1/3 of your data is unknown, you need to know why it is unknown before you can extrapolate.
I never said that music videos/rappers in jail are evidence, just a rough idea when compared to white rappers, open music videos with millions of views and fans is very different from evil pedophile Priests that do crime in utter secrecy while playing the divine, if they were publicly admitting it and still had millions of supporters then by all means, your impression would be reasonable
If it's a factor in creating your impressions, then that's evidence to you. Information on which you are basing a decision. And if that's the kind of thing you're basing your impressions on your epistemology is fucked. And priests still have millions of supporters despite the fact that this is public knowledge... So... my conclusion that Christians are disproportionately pedophiles is legit?
and for Christ's sake, I never said the cop killings are justified... I had not even fully drawn my conclusions,
"Don't you think that perception, expectations and fear originate from African Americans committing more crimes, especially murders in the long term? I mean, if 50% of the murders traditionally come from the African Americans 13% minority, wouldn't the policemen be more scared for their lives and more biased, therefore more ready and less hesitating to kill someone if he is black?"
"It would make sense that the high criminality rates from African Americans must be the main source of racism, and police brutality to some extend."
Please stop being disingenuous...
I was waiting for more responses to shape them up, I'll write a separate post with my opinion and the data that led me towards it :P
Maybe you shouldn't write a separate post with your opinion. It's impossible to imagine that within about a week you've gone from looking at wikipedia and asking people on a gaming forum to "shape" your opinions to having an intelligent and well founded opinion on race relations and police brutality in America.
Last edited by JWeinCom - on 13 June 2020
