My outlook for the Switch weren't predictions, they were feeble hopes and I stated so multiple times. And yes, I still hope it'll never reach 100m, despite it looking less and less likely.
My current belief that Xbox won't do much is based on data from the past 3 generations of Xbox, i.e. the only data there is. It would be stupid to think that we'd see a sudden shift when that has never happened before and when the Playstation brand is as strong as ever. If it turns out differently, cool, but that's not what experience has taught us.
I get that it's tough to get a full grasp of my actual leanings when I regularly shit on every platform, including PC, mobile, Xbox, Playstation and Nintendo. People rarely get to see all of them at once because they only walk among their own echo chambers. I also give props where it is due. For example I have a lot more respect for Xbox's business model than any other console, well, minus the paid online. I hate Sony a lot more than Xbox. The fact that I would never buy an Xbox is more of a testament to the things I like about them than anything else. They're the only console that doesn't force me to buy it.
People who react to me as if I was a fanboy or foeboy only reveal their own biases.
I'll focus on the bolded to keep this thread on topic. Your paragraph doesn't require many changes to match the thought processes that preceded 360 vs. PS3. What history has taught us is that the generational reset in the console business can change the fortunes of console manufacturers very fast. PS2 vs. Xbox was a clear win for Sony, PS3 vs. 360 was absolutely not a win for Sony, PS4 vs. XB1 was a clear win for Sony again. If you want it as simple as predicting a sudden shift based on historic sales data, then PS5 vs. XSX should be a significant loss in market share for Sony because so far a big shift has occured every generation between PS and Xbox. (That's not how proper analysis works, but you seem to prefer to simplify things beyond the point of rationality.)
For Microsoft's first party specifically, the sudden shift has already occured, but game development takes years, so it logically follows that the fruits of Microsoft's decisions won't be visible until years after the sudden shift had happened. Up till 2017, Microsoft's first party direction put an emphasis on the games as a service model and first party studios that failed to deliver got closed without any replacements for them. Beginning in 2018, Microsoft made moves to bolster their first party studios with several acquisitions. I don't need to explain that more studios mean that more games can be developed concurrently. Then again, this sequence of events has been lost on you, judging by your posts in this thread.
Sorry, but I've heard just too many times the beautiful phrase of "We are pumping so many resources in acquiring 1st party games, but please be patient because making games takes years". Well, many years have passed and nothing happened, so excuse me if I don't have much confidence in anyone claiming the exact thing right now.
As for the sudden shift, I don't see it. If anything the X360 showed how much weaker their brand is compared to Playstation. If I get a 90m head start in a 100m dash against Usain Bolt and finish a millisecond behind him, that doesn't mean I'm suddenly close to equal with him. No, it highlights even more how great Bolt is by still being able to win with such a handicap. Not only had the 360 a massive head start, every sale after it was basically compound interest due to a more competitive base and so many more people already jumping on it because there was no alternative. XSX doesn't have a massive head start this time and it looks like prices of both are gonna be competitive. PS5 is even in a way better position that the PS4 was since it is able to leverage a substantial fanbase and reconfirmed trust by consumers.
X1 once again confirmed that even coming from the strongest position they ever had, they couldn't capitalize on it. Why? Because they did not have any competitive 1st party offerings. They couldn't even be arsed to do it when they most needed it, so why would anyone believe that right now that suddenly is going to change? The hope for XSX to turn things around is about as feeble as my hope for a failed Switch.
I wish nothing more than Xbox completely crushing Playstation into oblivion, but I just can't see it.
Last edited by vivster - on 20 May 2020