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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next gen PS5/XB1SX sales ratio will look the same as this gen's. Huge changes in console marketshare require huge changes in the industry.

RolStoppable said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Forza being a yearly franchise isn't my opinion it's a fact. My criticism of Halo Infinite has nothing to do with my opinion on current gen Halo games. Hell, I don't even have an opinion on current gen Halo games. If Halo Infinite were exclusive to Series X or at least exclusive to Series X and PC, I'd agree that it would be a killer app. 

There's nothing to show that multiplats have ever mattered to a high degree in the manner you are talking about. It's based on nothing more than analyst assumptions. Marketshare increases and decreases are far easier explained by console prices, and exclusives. The 2017 launch of XB1X as "the best place to play multiplats", and then failing to help XB1 sales in any significant manner refutes your multiplats argument anyway. Your argument that Halo Infinite and Forza 8 will be killer apps has been refuted multiple times already. So that leaves your argument as simply "Series X will be the best place to play for multiplats!" So I'm not strawmanning you. Just addressing what's left of your bad argument after the first half has been refuted. 

TLoU2 is a PS4 game, not a PS5 game. 

Do you have a source from that? Or are you speculating? How do you know TLoU2 isn't getting a PS5 port? 

You continue to use double standards. You disregard Halo Infinite at the beginning of your post, then continue to highlight a possible PS5 remaster of TLoU2 as something that's a big deal. But you should keep in mind that Halo Infinite is built for the XSX (probable, because of precedent mentioned in an earlier post) while TLoU2's inevitable PS5 version will be a game that was built for the PS4 originally. Being built for old gen (which is an assumption on your part) is why you keep dismissing Halo, so TLoU2 shouldn't receive different treatment from you.

You are on a sales website, so you can look up the bestseller lists of the PS3, 360, PS4 and XB1. All lists are dominated by multiplatform games, so of course it matters which console provides the better performance for those games.

The launch of the Xbox One X is merely another piece of proof for the large pile of evidence that makes it clear that image and perception of any given console is shaped early, so midgen upgrades, add-ons etc. are unable to move the needle in any significant manner.

Your straw man was when you asserted that I am claiming that any console in the past won by having nothing more than better graphics for third party games, which is something that I didn't do. I am going to list the points in order of importance in the PS5 vs. XSX battle:

1. Price
2. Performance of multiplat games
3. Regional preference/bias
4. Exclusives

It's looking very, very likely that Microsoft has secured point 2 (I doubt that third parties will prefer shorter loading times above higher fidelity, because better graphics has always been an easier selling point for games), but that wouldn't mean much if they can't nail the price. The XSX's performance advantage won't be worth an extra $100 to consumers, that's certain. Point 3 is something that is pretty much set and that neither company can change with a lot of help from the other company; Microsoft can count on an advantage in the USA and the UK if they cover point 1 and 2, Sony can count on the rest of the world. Exclusives can provide an extra edge, but most of the bestselling games on PS and Xbox consoles are multiplats.

In any case, if Microsoft gets point 1 and 2 right, then your thread is going to faceplant hard. I hope everyone realizes that point 1 and 2 aren't particularly difficult things to get right; they don't require any special skills or talent, but are rather just about providing powerful hardware at a good price. It's something that Microsoft failed at spectacularly in the previous generation, but it's usually the biggest mistakes that console manufacturers try to correct the most with their follow-up console.

Don't expect too much about the 2.

Rather than say, I'm surprised that you seem to believe in the paper specs too purely.
These numbers do not represent actual game performance as they are.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 13 June 2020

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RolStoppable said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Forza being a yearly franchise isn't my opinion it's a fact. My criticism of Halo Infinite has nothing to do with my opinion on current gen Halo games. Hell, I don't even have an opinion on current gen Halo games. If Halo Infinite were exclusive to Series X or at least exclusive to Series X and PC, I'd agree that it would be a killer app. 

There's nothing to show that multiplats have ever mattered to a high degree in the manner you are talking about. It's based on nothing more than analyst assumptions. Marketshare increases and decreases are far easier explained by console prices, and exclusives. The 2017 launch of XB1X as "the best place to play multiplats", and then failing to help XB1 sales in any significant manner refutes your multiplats argument anyway. Your argument that Halo Infinite and Forza 8 will be killer apps has been refuted multiple times already. So that leaves your argument as simply "Series X will be the best place to play for multiplats!" So I'm not strawmanning you. Just addressing what's left of your bad argument after the first half has been refuted. 

TLoU2 is a PS4 game, not a PS5 game. 

Do you have a source from that? Or are you speculating? How do you know TLoU2 isn't getting a PS5 port? 

You continue to use double standards. You disregard Halo Infinite at the beginning of your post, then continue to highlight a possible PS5 remaster of TLoU2 as something that's a big deal. But you should keep in mind that Halo Infinite is built for the XSX (probable, because of precedent mentioned in an earlier post) while TLoU2's inevitable PS5 version will be a game that was built for the PS4 originally. Being built for old gen (which is an assumption on your part) is why you keep dismissing Halo, so TLoU2 shouldn't receive different treatment from you.

You are on a sales website, so you can look up the bestseller lists of the PS3, 360, PS4 and XB1. All lists are dominated by multiplatform games, so of course it matters which console provides the better performance for those games.

The launch of the Xbox One X is merely another piece of proof for the large pile of evidence that makes it clear that image and perception of any given console is shaped early, so midgen upgrades, add-ons etc. are unable to move the needle in any significant manner.

Your straw man was when you asserted that I am claiming that any console in the past won by having nothing more than better graphics for third party games, which is something that I didn't do. I am going to list the points in order of importance in the PS5 vs. XSX battle:

1. Price
2. Performance of multiplat games
3. Regional preference/bias
4. Exclusives

It's looking very, very likely that Microsoft has secured point 2 (I doubt that third parties will prefer shorter loading times above higher fidelity, because better graphics has always been an easier selling point for games), but that wouldn't mean much if they can't nail the price. The XSX's performance advantage won't be worth an extra $100 to consumers, that's certain. Point 3 is something that is pretty much set and that neither company can change with a lot of help from the other company; Microsoft can count on an advantage in the USA and the UK if they cover point 1 and 2, Sony can count on the rest of the world. Exclusives can provide an extra edge, but most of the bestselling games on PS and Xbox consoles are multiplats.

In any case, if Microsoft gets point 1 and 2 right, then your thread is going to faceplant hard. I hope everyone realizes that point 1 and 2 aren't particularly difficult things to get right; they don't require any special skills or talent, but are rather just about providing powerful hardware at a good price. It's something that Microsoft failed at spectacularly in the previous generation, but it's usually the biggest mistakes that console manufacturers try to correct the most with their follow-up console.

You have this really bad habit. Instead of addressing what I actually said, you seem to want to address what you think was implied by what I actually said.

I never said that TLoU2 would be big on PS5.

I never said being built for old gen would affect Halo Infinite. I said that being available on old gen would effect it's sales. There's a difference. Please learn it. I don't subscribe to the HollyGamer idea that having to scale Halo Infinite back to run on XB1 S will somehow hold back the Series X version in the graphics department. 

You are assuming that the casuals that play Madden, Fifa, CoD, Destiny, Fortnite etc. actually care about graphics. They don't.

"The launch of the Xbox One X is merely another piece of proof for the large pile of evidence that makes it clear that image and perception of any given console is shaped early, so midgen upgrades, add-ons etc. are unable to move the needle in any significant manner."

Wasn't PS3 behind 360 sales at some point? Price drops + Exclusives + a 2nd Model helped them to not only catch up, but just barely pass 360 in lifetime sales at the end of the generation. So no, what happens in the first year of a generation doesn't set in stone the end results. Otherwise 360 would have ended at 100 million lifetime sales and PS3 at 72 million.

"Your straw man was when you asserted that I am claiming that any console in the past won by having nothing more than better graphics for third party games, which is something that I didn't do."

I never said that you claimed that. Here you go trying to address what you think was implied by what I actually said, instead of what I actually said. You want to make strawman accusations, but in this post alone you've managed to strawman me three times already.

If MS manages to undercut the PS5 by $100 (with Series X pricing, not Series S) they will manage to make some headway this gen. I see that as unlikely, but not impossible. I give 75% betting odds that PS5 will be $0 to $50 more than Series X. ""Best place to play" 3rd party nonsense won't matter. You seriously underestimate the affect of exclusives on sales.



Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 14 June 2020

Ladies and gentlemen, you have to realize that Rol is the same person, that in their signature, expected GTA4 to lose to a arena fighter and mentioned in 2013 mentioned that the PS4 and Xbox One would not outsell the PS3 and Xbox 360 mainly due to sharing the same gaming library. He is in no position to talk down anyone for their predictions as he is just as wrong as anyone else...definitely no authority on anything dealing with Microsoft or Sony.

His arguments is just weak attempt to undercut Sony's future win by saying that it benefited from its competitors mistakes (yet again) rather than Sony laying out a good plan that they were able to execute regardless of what its competitors are doing. He can point out to his own musing and say 'See, Microsoft clearly had everything going for it and they didn't execute, so Sony benefited and since I'm Rol, I'm right."

.



*grabs popcorn*



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RolStoppable said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

You have this really bad habit. Instead of addressing what I actually said, you seem to want to address what you think was implied by what I actually said.

I never said that TLoU2 would be big on PS5.

I never said being built for old gen would affect Halo Infinite. I said that being available on old gen would effect it's sales. There's a difference. Please learn it. I don't subscribe to the HollyGamer idea that having to scale Halo Infinite back to run on XB1 S will somehow hold back the Series X version in the graphics department. 

You are assuming that the casuals that play Madden, Fifa, CoD, Destiny, Fortnite etc. actually care about graphics. They don't.

"The launch of the Xbox One X is merely another piece of proof for the large pile of evidence that makes it clear that image and perception of any given console is shaped early, so midgen upgrades, add-ons etc. are unable to move the needle in any significant manner."

Wasn't PS3 behind 360 sales at some point? Price drops + Exclusives + a 2nd Model helped them to not only catch up, but just barely pass 360 in lifetime sales at the end of the generation. So no, what happens in the first year of a generation doesn't set in stone the end results. Otherwise 360 would have ended at 100 million lifetime sales and PS3 at 72 million.

"Your straw man was when you asserted that I am claiming that any console in the past won by having nothing more than better graphics for third party games, which is something that I didn't do."

I never said that you claimed that. Here you go trying to address what you think was implied by what I actually said, instead of what I actually said. You want to make strawman accusations, but in this post alone you've managed to strawman me three times already.

If MS manages to undercut the PS5 by $100 (with Series X pricing, not Series S) they will manage to make some headway this gen. I see that as unlikely, but not impossible. I give 75% betting odds that PS5 will be $0 to $50 more than Series X. ""Best place to play" 3rd party nonsense won't matter. You seriously underestimate the affect of exclusives on sales.

I've addressed what you said. You keep moving goalposts, that's why your arguments are falling apart.

For instance, in your current post you say that Halo Infinite being on old gen would effect its sales, but what you originally said is that Halo Infinite is nothing; there's a significant difference between talking about decreased sales and brushing off a game as a non-factor like you did. At another point you demanded that I should show proof that a console in the past won by doing nothing more than having the better looking multiplatform games; I was the only one you were having a discussion with at that point, so either you strawmanned me or you randomly asked a stupid question.

The 360 and PS3 were having very similar yearly sales with the lead in weekly baseline sales changing a few times. A lead for the 360 existed largely due to its one year headstart. The two consoles were selling at a similar pace from start to finish of that generation, because the image and perception that the PS3 isn't significantly better than the 360 was defined early.

Rol, your reading comprehension is just poor. You are fighting an imaginary battle with the Cerebralbore in your head, instead of actually addressing me or what I said. 

Forza 8 and Halo Infinite will run on Xbox One, Xbox One X, PC, and Xbox Series X. Those aren't going to move units, because everybody interested in those games has hardware to play those games already.

^There I am talking about how being available on four systems will affect sales. 

Your argument was "Halo Infinite and Forza will push sales for Series X, and the system that has the best 3rd party performance will come out on top". 

I refuted the first part of your argument, by pointing out that Halo Infinite and Forza will be playable on four platforms in total. 

This reduces your argument to "Halo Infinite and Forza will push sales for Series X, and the system that has the best 3rd party performance will come out on top"

Since your argument had been reduced to a single point ala refutation, I then asked the following rhetorical question "Can you give an example of a console winning a generation solely by having better graphics in 3rd party titles?"

Asking such a question =/= Stating that you actually believe that a console can win via nothing but 3rd party performance. 

At best it merely implies it. But that's what you've done these past few posts. You've attempted to read between the lines of what I actually said, to extract your own strawman interpretation, and then went on to attack said strawman. 

Your method of straw-manning is as bad as people that say "Black Lives Matter? That implies what white lives don't matter! The BLM movement thinks white lives don't matter!"



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Cerebralbore101 said:
RolStoppable said:

I've addressed what you said. You keep moving goalposts, that's why your arguments are falling apart.

For instance, in your current post you say that Halo Infinite being on old gen would effect its sales, but what you originally said is that Halo Infinite is nothing; there's a significant difference between talking about decreased sales and brushing off a game as a non-factor like you did. At another point you demanded that I should show proof that a console in the past won by doing nothing more than having the better looking multiplatform games; I was the only one you were having a discussion with at that point, so either you strawmanned me or you randomly asked a stupid question.

The 360 and PS3 were having very similar yearly sales with the lead in weekly baseline sales changing a few times. A lead for the 360 existed largely due to its one year headstart. The two consoles were selling at a similar pace from start to finish of that generation, because the image and perception that the PS3 isn't significantly better than the 360 was defined early.

Rol, your reading comprehension is just poor. You are fighting an imaginary battle with the Cerebralbore in your head, instead of actually addressing me or what I said. 

Forza 8 and Halo Infinite will run on Xbox One, Xbox One X, PC, and Xbox Series X. Those aren't going to move units, because everybody interested in those games has hardware to play those games already.

^There I am talking about how being available on four systems will affect sales. 

Your argument was "Halo Infinite and Forza will push sales for Series X, and the system that has the best 3rd party performance will come out on top". 

I refuted the first part of your argument, by pointing out that Halo Infinite and Forza will be playable on four platforms in total. 

This reduces your argument to "Halo Infinite and Forza will push sales for Series X, and the system that has the best 3rd party performance will come out on top"

Since your argument had been reduced to a single point ala refutation, I then asked the following rhetorical question "Can you give an example of a console winning a generation solely by having better graphics in 3rd party titles?"

Asking such a question =/= Stating that you actually believe that a console can win via nothing but 3rd party performance. 

At best it merely implies it. But that's what you've done these past few posts. You've attempted to read between the lines of what I actually said, to extract your own strawman interpretation, and then went on to attack said strawman. 

Your method of straw-manning is as bad as people that say "Black Lives Matter? That implies what white lives don't matter! The BLM movement thinks white lives don't matter!"

Good grief. Can't believe it needs to be pointed out, but just because Halo is available on other systems doesn't mean it won't be a huge mover for a new Xbox. And we're not just talking about the launch and first year, but possibly several years to come (depending on quality of the game obviously).

For starters, PC release can just be ignored. The main crowd that'll buy Halo only on PC were never gonna buy an Xbox to begin with. I'm not sure how much you know about Halo and it's appeal, but most of it comes from it's social aspect in gameplay; namely, couch co-op and more importantly online multi-player. Neither of those aspects have a strong lasting effect on PC. Even for multi-player, it'll never be nearly as strong on PC because people who play a lot of Halo won't deal with the cheating/hacking BS of PC. The main benefit of Halo on PC, is it'll make it easier for the people who forge/mod custom maps, which is a huge part of Halo's value and lasting power.

Secondly, the main buyers who already own current Xbox and are likely quite loyal to the brand. Even if they can play the new Halo for the first year or two, if they're playing on the base or S systems, they'll likely want to upgrade sooner than later. But it should be a given that even if they're One X owners, that at some point they'll still want to upgrade to play the best version as part of the Xbox ecosystem.

Most importantly, the main audience MS are trying to attract with the new Halo, are console gamers who don't currently own an Xbox. Which is a large chunk of the current market place, in case you haven't noticed. And the same audience/demographic that'll be interested in a quality new Halo title, are largely the same crowd who tend to buy the best-selling multi-plat titles i.e. CoD, Fifa, GTAV etc.

Halo being the centre of a new system launch is a huge deal, and a lot is riding on how this title can deliver.



RolStoppable said:

Before I bow out of this discussion with you, I want to reiterate that my argument has never been "the system that has the best third party performance comes out on top." 

I'd just like to reiterate that I was never claiming that you actually held the position that "he system that has the best third party performance comes out on top."

Thanks. 

May we both return to this thread in December 2021, to see who has the most crow to eat. :P



smroadkill15 said:

Forza being a yearly franchise isn't my opinion it's a fact. My criticism of Halo Infinite has nothing to do with my opinion on current gen Halo games. Hell, I don't even have an opinion on current gen Halo games. If Halo Infinite were exclusive to Series X or at least exclusive to Series X and PC, I'd agree that it would be a killer app. 

There's nothing to show that multiplats have ever mattered to a high degree in the manner you are talking about. It's based on nothing more than analyst assumptions. Marketshare increases and decreases are far easier explained by console prices, and exclusives. The 2017 launch of XB1X as "the best place to play multiplats", and then failing to help XB1 sales in any significant manner refutes your multiplats argument anyway. Your argument that Halo Infinite and Forza 8 will be killer apps has been refuted multiple times already. So that leaves your argument as simply "Series X will be the best place to play for multiplats!" So I'm not strawmanning you. Just addressing what's left of your bad argument after the first half has been refuted. 

TLoU2 is a PS4 game, not a PS5 game. 

Do you have a source from that? Or are you speculating? How do you know TLoU2 isn't getting a PS5 port? 


Forza is not a yearly franchise. Was there a Forza game last year? Nope, didn't see it. Is Forza Horizon and Forza Motorsport two very different games? Yep. Has it been 3 years since Forza Motorsport 7 released? Yes it has. Did I see how excited people got when Grande Turismo 7 was announced? Sure did. I can bet you we will get a similar reaction for FM8. You're downplay of both Halo Infinite and Forza 8 is laughably bad. Both games are gonna bring the Hype. People want to see how Forza looks for next gen and we already know Halo Infinite will be gorgeous based on what we've seen of the Slipspace engine. We saw how Zelda Breath of the Wild pushed Switch sales. Halo has that same selling power whether you want to believe it or not. Have you not considered all the gamers that went from 360 to ps4? They see Halo Infinite is a launch title, and the Series X is more powerful and (probably) same price as ps5. It may be enough for them to jump ship. Gamers are a fickle bunch. 

There is a big difference releasing a more powerful console at the beginning of a gen vs a mid-gen refresh. It sets the tone for the rest of the generation. Multiplatform games performance absolutely matter, especially when multiplatform games are 95%+ of console sales for Xbox and playstation. Look at the beginning of this gen. Gamers heard ps4 is more power and cheaper than xbox one. Easy sales. It doesn't even matter if the exclusives are bad because these people want to play COD, Madden, NBA2k, etc. They just want to play it on the best system. 

Considering that the sales of Forza Motorsport at their highest was quite lower than Gran Turismo at it lowest and the fact that there wasn't a Gran Turismo numbered release on PS4 you would be wrong to expect similar level of excitement.

Just to put things in perspective. PS5 logo generated far more excitement, retweets and whatnot than the full December reveal of Series X. And the June event of PS5 had several million people watching live while the MS May event didn't get anywhere near.

There is still a very big gap between mindshare and so far nothing MS done would really revert the sales gap.



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Train wreck said:

..expected GTA4 to lose to a arena fighter ...

..PS4 and Xbox One would not outsell the PS3 and Xbox 360 mainly due to sharing the same gaming library...

Ahem

How many PS4/XB1 sales are due to Fortnite?



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
Train wreck said:

..expected GTA4 to lose to a arena fighter ...

..PS4 and Xbox One would not outsell the PS3 and Xbox 360 mainly due to sharing the same gaming library...

Ahem

How many PS4/XB1 sales are due to Fortnite?

The last shipment numbers from Take Two in 2012 was that the game shipped 25 million so... Ahem

And for your second question, we don't know, probably the same as Grand Theft Auto 5 , NBA2kXX, Madden XX, COD XX, FIFA XX and countless other games.