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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next gen PS5/XB1SX sales ratio will look the same as this gen's. Huge changes in console marketshare require huge changes in the industry.

DonFerrari on 20 May 2020
LudicrousSpeed said:
DonFerrari said:

But since GP is great we have to believe it brings more money than selling one 10M seller a year (ignoring that Sony have been putting about 3 very big games per year).

No one in the thread has said anything like this. No need for the console warz nonsense.

Sure ludicrous. Must be the reason you didn't reply on Angelus posts proving his math was wrong but had a need to do so on the one with the revenue for Cerebalbore or mine.

That was basically his point, that long term it is more attractive to sell gamepass than 10M sellers.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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LudicrousSpeed on 20 May 2020
DonFerrari said:
LudicrousSpeed said:

No one in the thread has said anything like this. No need for the console warz nonsense.

Sure ludicrous. Must be the reason you didn't reply on Angelus posts proving his math was wrong but had a need to do so on the one with the revenue for Cerebalbore or mine.

That was basically his point, that long term it is more attractive to sell gamepass than 10M sellers.

I replied to the guy who posted the math nonsense. I’m not going to bother replying to every post about revenue because as I told you, it’s a waste of time. We don’t know any of the numbers. That’s not how math works lol 



Angelus on 20 May 2020

There's a lot of problems with some of these arguments I'm seeing here, and some people also seem to be conflating Xcloud with GamePass, despite them being separate things, but let's table all that for a minute.....

I'm curious, for the people who are so adamant that a business model like GamePass doesn't make more financial sense than selling individual games...can you tell me why big 3rd party publishers like EA and Ubisoft are already moving in the same direction on PC? EA Origins Premier, and UPlay+ both offer pretty much the same service as GP for their respective parties. Is it your opinion that these publishers have no interest in expanding this business model to consoles in the future, provided the platform holders allow it? Are EA and Ubi, who certainly have enough big franchises of their own, capable of selling 10m+ units just not as interested in maximizing profits as Sony, that they would be willing to throw away cash on this type of subscription model that offers their biggest games day 1 (or sooner) for a low monthly fee?



Dna2212 on 25 May 2020

Sorry American gamers, but the USA only constitutes about 30% of the total number of consoles sold for ps4. If all the discussion here is about what is happening in the states, probably a number of you got the situation right. If you factor in Europe/Asia etc, there is only going to be 1 winner.Sony. Thats where Sony and Nintendo has always gotten it right.

Pricing is the top concern for every console, followed by games. Sony has a great variety of games that cater to every genre and that is why it is successful, not to mentioned top tier 1st party games. The branding itself would ensure Sony wins the next generation as well.

The only way MS is able to win the next generation or even come close to Sony is if it starts to listen to gamers around the world. No one gives a damn about tflops except fanboys. Switch is low on graphical power and yet it still trounces xbox1. Stop buying all these studios producing the same kind of games only your fanboys would buy. Bring in more RPGs, Action games like HZD, and make it an all rounder genre console, or pay studios like Konami/Namco/Capcom to make some exclusive games for you since most of your studios create crap games in case you are unaware. Halo/Forza/GOW are the only games that are good but those studios are not doing anything different other than improvements on old IP which doesnt seem a difficult job at all. When i played GOW5, i didnt felt it was much different from 3 of 4 to be honest.

Until the day you realise that USA sales does not equate to the world sales, MS you will always be the 2nd/3rd best to Sony and Nintendo.



Pyro as Bill on 25 May 2020
Angelus said:

There's a lot of problems with some of these arguments I'm seeing here, and some people also seem to be conflating Xcloud with GamePass, despite them being separate things, but let's table all that for a minute.....

I'm curious, for the people who are so adamant that a business model like GamePass doesn't make more financial sense than selling individual games...can you tell me why big 3rd party publishers like EA and Ubisoft are already moving in the same direction on PC? EA Origins Premier, and UPlay+ both offer pretty much the same service as GP for their respective parties. Is it your opinion that these publishers have no interest in expanding this business model to consoles in the future, provided the platform holders allow it? Are EA and Ubi, who certainly have enough big franchises of their own, capable of selling 10m+ units just not as interested in maximizing profits as Sony, that they would be willing to throw away cash on this type of subscription model that offers their biggest games day 1 (or sooner) for a low monthly fee?

I think the mistake everyone is making is comparing rentals to ownership. We have a ton of value sitting unused on our shelves that most of us ignore. Yet we also wouldn't think $1 per week or even a $1 per day was an unreasonable price for a game rental.

In '08 and '09 Nintendo made an average $20 profit per customer per year. If that's all they need to deliver the content they do then there's definitely a more efficient way to do that where both Nintendo and their customers can benefit.

From what I can tell it doesn't suit annual games that supercede their predecessor like FIFA because the consumer eats up most of that $60 loss after ~12 months. EA basically gets $60/year by renting out FIFA.

A game like Mario Kart can last 5-10 years and you can still get 50% of the full RRP as trade in at the end. Even 90% after year 1 but as soon as it's traded in Nintendo get's nothing and their 'rental' revenue dilutes everytime the game is traded in.

Excluding promotions, what's the worst that can happen? Everyone does a one month $15 sub, plays every single game and then never buys another retail game or subs again?



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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Pyro as Bill on 25 May 2020

It's like sports subs v movie/tv subs.

Access to last year's football games is near worthless compared to access to this year's. Whereas season 2 of Game of Thrones doesn't negate season 1.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Cerebralbore101 on 11 June 2020

So what do people think about the OP now that PS5 has been revealed?



eva01beserk on 11 June 2020
RolStoppable said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
So what do people think about the OP now that PS5 has been revealed?

Sony failed to have an event of the caliber that would have been needed for your prediction; too many of the games shown didn't get a 2021 release window, including important Sony first party games. Unless I forgot about something, the PS5 will launch with a Spiderman spinoff and some Astrobot software (apparently the latter will be preinstalled on every PS5, so it's not even meaty enough to be sold on its own).

On the other hand, at this point most people expect Microsoft to launch with Halo Infinite and Forza 8. Microsoft has the more powerful console, so if they can launch that at price parity, they'll have the better first party lineup and multiplat games at the same price as a PS5.

While there are still some key pieces missing, at this point the only hope for your thread is that Microsoft commits a serious blunder, like going with a two SKU strategy of a Series X and Series S that are priced $100 higher and $100 lower than the PS5, respectively.

Where we watching the same event? I was watchimg on my phone at 720p hiding in the bathroom at work and still was blown away.

If you think halo will push more consoles than Spider-Man you are out your mind. Granted this might be some kind of expansion as far as we know. We need more info. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

Cerebralbore101 on 11 June 2020
RolStoppable said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
So what do people think about the OP now that PS5 has been revealed?

Sony failed to have an event of the caliber that would have been needed for your prediction; too many of the games shown didn't get a 2021 release window, including important Sony first party games. Unless I forgot about something, the PS5 will launch with a Spiderman spinoff and some Astrobot software (apparently the latter will be preinstalled on every PS5, so it's not even meaty enough to be sold on its own).

On the other hand, at this point most people expect Microsoft to launch with Halo Infinite and Forza 8. Microsoft has the more powerful console, so if they can launch that at price parity, they'll have the better first party lineup and multiplat games at the same price as a PS5.

While there are still some key pieces missing, at this point the only hope for your thread is that Microsoft commits a serious blunder, like going with a two SKU strategy of a Series X and Series S that are priced $100 higher and $100 lower than the PS5, respectively.

Forza 8 and Halo Infinite will run on Xbox One, Xbox One X, PC, and Xbox Series X. Those aren't going to move units, because everybody interested in those games has hardware to play those games already. Because of the ability to play these games on such a wide array of hardware MS effectively has nothing for launch. Sony doesn't even need to have Spiderman to beat MS in the launch lineup department, because MS set the bar so insanely low. TLoU2 and GoT ports is all it takes to match MS's sad launch offerings here. The fact that Sony has anything new for launch at all puts MS in a bad position.

What even are the sales number for Halo 5, and Forza Horizon 4 (The last two games in these series)? Did they even top 5 Million each?



Cerebralbore101 on 12 June 2020
RolStoppable said:
eva01beserk said:

Where we watching the same event? I was watchimg on my phone at 720p hiding in the bathroom at work and still was blown away.

If you think halo will push more consoles than Spider-Man you are out your mind. Granted this might be some kind of expansion as far as we know. We need more info. 

Spiderman is an expansion, that's how the game could be completed in two years.

Cerebralbore101 said:

Forza 8 and Halo Infinite will run on Xbox One, Xbox One X, PC, and Xbox Series X. Those aren't going to move units, because everybody interested in those games has hardware to play those games already. Because of the ability to play these games on such a wide array of hardware MS effectively has nothing for launch. Sony doesn't even need to have Spiderman to beat MS in the launch lineup department, because MS set the bar so insanely low. TLoU2 and GoT ports is all it takes to match MS's sad launch offerings here. The fact that Sony has anything new for launch at all puts MS in a bad position.

What even are the sales number for Halo 5, and Forza Horizon 4 (The last two games in these series)? Did they even top 5 Million each?

Your post is incredibly biased. Microsoft has new entries of big IPs in the works for this holiday season, but you call them nothing while at the same time you say ports of old Sony games would be something. Spiderman for the PS4 was released in September 2018, so you should figure that Morales is a quickly put together expansion for the PS5 launch.

It's likely that Halo Infinite will be developed as two separate versions (just like Forza Horizon 2 for Xbox 360 and Xbox One six years ago), so the one for Series X won't be held back by old hardware. We have yet to see the actual game, so we can't tell yet if HI will be more of Halo 5 or a return to form. I'll just remind people that Zelda sold only ~3.5m with Skyward Sword and Sony fans were completely convinced that Breath of the Wild couldn't be a system seller even after they had already seen it in elaborate action. Similar to Halo, Forza (the main series, not the Horizon spinoff that isn't relevant here) was on a downward trend, but this time around Microsoft is giving the development team more time than the previously stubborn two-year-rhythm.

But more important than exclusives is which console will become the choice for multiplats. That in and of itself would be the huge change that you had ruled out since the moment you started this thread. The PS4 was clearly the console of choice for multiplats in the previous gen, but the PS5 isn't looking like it can follow that path. Its only saving grace in recent weeks was its ultra fast SSD, but Sony's event did nothing to demonstrate an advantage in multiplatform games. Microsoft, however, can have multiplats run at higher fidelity and the pixel and special effects counters of Digital Foundry will probably find that the XSX versions of multiplats are superior.

At this point it's more or less just a matter of Microsoft getting the pricing of their console right. Sony is playing the waiting game because they probably realize that they are in a difficult spot. Microsoft could end the waiting game by simply announcing a conditional price for their XSX: "Whatever the PS5 will cost, that's what the XSX will cost too."

What are these new entries of big IPs? I'm not saying ports of PS4 games would be something. I'm just saying that if Series X only launches with games that can also be played on PC,XB1, and XB1X, then PS5 launching in a similar state matches that. Having two games that aren't really exclusives = having two games that aren't really exclusives.

Oh yes, I fully expect Miles to be something akin to Uncharted Lost Legacy, or Majora's Mask. But I'll take that over the jack-all that MS has.

I wasn't referring to old hardware holding Halo Infinite back. We haven't seen Halo Infinite yet though. Only a fool would have watched the 2017 E3 Demo and thought BotW wasn't going to be good. Even if it did somehow become an amazing BotW style return to form for the series, it's going to be on two platforms in addition to Series X. Forza is little more than a yearly sports franchise that is also available on PC. If Sony fans were scraping the bottom of the barrel this hard for ammo, they'd be touting MLB the Show. Luckily, they're not that desperate. And don't come at me with how Forza has better reviews than MLB. A yearly racing or sports franchise with good reviews is a yearly racing or sports franchise with good reviews.

Can you give an example of a console winning a generation solely by having better graphics in 3rd party titles? There's no historical precedent for your "best place to play 3rd party games" argument.

Edit: Just found out TLoU2 has reviews of 96. Here you are speculating on how Halo Infinite could be a game of this caliber, while Sony actually releases one.

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 12 June 2020