Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many 30 million sellers will Switch have?

How many 30 million selling Switch games?

1 10 18.87%
 
2 11 20.75%
 
3 11 20.75%
 
4 10 18.87%
 
5 6 11.32%
 
6+ 5 9.43%
 
Total:53

I only think MK8D will make it. I don't think the other games will come close. Lets just wait and see when and if these titles pass 20 million first lol.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:

As for a potential 2D Mario, there are already 2 on the Switch (NSMBUD and SMM2) and only reach to 12M combined. I think the notion of these being 30M sellers come from the DS and Wii versions which both sold 30M - but also came after long years of only 3D jump'n runs on the market when many were waiting for a good 2D one. My stepfather for instance gifted me with both his N64 and PS2 because he simply couldn't find any good 2D jump'n runs (apart from Mischief Makers) on those consoles and rather tried to hook up my old NES to their TV to be able to play Super Mario Bros 1-3.

Long story short, the New Super Mario Bros came out after a long drought of classical 2D Jump'n run and thus everybody jumped at the occasion. But the situation is different these days and 2D Mario doesn't have that broad appeal anymore due to this. Case in point: The 3DS version NSMB2 only sold 13M copies. So no, 20M may well be possible, but I don't think 30M would be achievable with a new 2D Mario title.

You're probably right on Mario.

I don't think the first bolded part is a good argument because Mario Maker clearly appears to just be much less popular than traditional 2D Mario, and NSMBUD is a last gen port of a series that probably needs to be refreshed to a new style at this point and selling at full price and honestly a fairly mediocre Mario (having played through it I found it a lot of fun the one time I played it 2-player but just an okay game playing through it one player) and still lifetime it may very well sell 12M by itself, so those two games could very well sell over 20M combined lifetime.

You throw in a brand new reimagined 2D Mario series with fanfare marketed as a major title and critically acclaimed, keep it multiplayer, and I think hitting 20M is likely but yeah 30M is probably too much to ask for 2D Mario at this point. As you say, 2D Mario (and 2D platformers in general) were novel again when the "New" series first started coming out. Also 4 player Mario was novel as well. And that is not longer the case. And with how the indie market has exploded the past decade there are a lot of great 2D platformer options out there at only $10-$20 as well, so even a fantastic 4 player refreshed 2D Mario series at this point would likely sell fantastic but not mind blowing numbers like the first two in the "New" series.



At least, I'm 100% sure MK8DX will make it. As for the others, I'll look at it one step at a time.

But yeah, there's genuinely a possibility of 4 titles to make it by the end of the Switch life.



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Maybe even 40 M for MK8.

Then, for 30+, I only see ARMS and Astral Chain...Eventually LABO N°3 also



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I said 5.  I think MK8, Smash, Animal Crossing, and Zelda will all make it.  Considering that is 4 games in 3 years, I think they can make another 30m+ too since they have a good track record.  It might be, for example, the next Pokemon game if it's exceptionally good, but it could be something else.



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I think Animal Crossing is going to make it. With a lot of games, having a huge start like this may indicate a quicker decline, but games like this have the potential to catch on via social media which seems to be the case. Twenty million by the end of this year seems almost assured, and five million for 2021 and 22 doesn't seem far out there.



MK8DX is a lock for 30M+

It might be tough for Smash Bros to make it because as big as it is, there's a good portion of more casual players who might not be interested enough in a chaotic fighting game like Smash so I have a feeling sales for smash Bros will plateau somewhere around 25M+, however I still see it as possible it could reach 30M

Doesn't look like Mario Odyssey will make it since the game isn't really having amazing evergreen sales like the other top selling games as it seems like the hype doesn't have enough legs to reach 30M. Plus a new and remastered 3D Marios are likely to release before the Switch ends it's lifecycle hindering it's sales, I see around 25M by the end

Zelda has the possibility to make it but again it's gonna be tough, but Zelda BOTW is one of the most revolutionary and greatest games of all time that to this day people are still talking and buying about it, and we've seen how big the Western type of rpg/adventure genre is in the industry with similar games like Skyrim selling over 30M, I feel like Zelda might have a chance to appeal to gamers all across different platforms to play it, so it has the chance but with BOTW 2 releasing soon it might be difficult.

I don't think Pokemon Sword/Shield will make it cause I guarantee there's going to be tons of Pokemon games that'll release in the future that'll hinder the game's sales and keep it from 30M

Animal Crossing maybe, Animal Crossing has been known to be an amazing selling evergreen title and with already a strong launch and a broad appeal to casual and hardcore gamers alike, I see it as a possibility, however it seems to early to jump to conclusions just yet.

So here's my list:

Guaranteed:MK8DX

Possible:Smash,Animal Crossing

Unlikely:BOTW,Pokemon Sword/Shield



4; Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros., and Breath of the Wild.

I also think Mario Kart and Animal Crossing will both cross 40 million. 



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PAOerfulone said:

4; Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros., and Breath of the Wild.

I also think Mario Kart and Animal Crossing will both cross 40 million. 

The bolded is bold! I mean MK sure has a chance at 40. It is way too soon to talk about AC reaching 40. It'll probably compete in sales against Pokemon, Mario, and BotW which should all end up around 25 to low 30s. MK is the only game with any chance at 40 million.



I say two, Mario Kart and Animal Crossing. Which isn't bad, 30 million is an insane sales figure in it's own right, I just don't expect any others to quite make it. It's possible Smash or BotW could, but it seems very unlikely. I think it'll be easier to say once we get close to the end of the console's life though whether or not it could happen for them.