| Bofferbrauer2 said:
As for a potential 2D Mario, there are already 2 on the Switch (NSMBUD and SMM2) and only reach to 12M combined. I think the notion of these being 30M sellers come from the DS and Wii versions which both sold 30M - but also came after long years of only 3D jump'n runs on the market when many were waiting for a good 2D one. My stepfather for instance gifted me with both his N64 and PS2 because he simply couldn't find any good 2D jump'n runs (apart from Mischief Makers) on those consoles and rather tried to hook up my old NES to their TV to be able to play Super Mario Bros 1-3. |
You're probably right on Mario.
I don't think the first bolded part is a good argument because Mario Maker clearly appears to just be much less popular than traditional 2D Mario, and NSMBUD is a last gen port of a series that probably needs to be refreshed to a new style at this point and selling at full price and honestly a fairly mediocre Mario (having played through it I found it a lot of fun the one time I played it 2-player but just an okay game playing through it one player) and still lifetime it may very well sell 12M by itself, so those two games could very well sell over 20M combined lifetime.
You throw in a brand new reimagined 2D Mario series with fanfare marketed as a major title and critically acclaimed, keep it multiplayer, and I think hitting 20M is likely but yeah 30M is probably too much to ask for 2D Mario at this point. As you say, 2D Mario (and 2D platformers in general) were novel again when the "New" series first started coming out. Also 4 player Mario was novel as well. And that is not longer the case. And with how the indie market has exploded the past decade there are a lot of great 2D platformer options out there at only $10-$20 as well, so even a fantastic 4 player refreshed 2D Mario series at this point would likely sell fantastic but not mind blowing numbers like the first two in the "New" series.
