Really wondering what major game(s) Nintendo is going to have for the holidays this year. Obviously they want to have a big lineup to go against the launch of the two new systems, but it almost feels like they might not have a major game ready. I assumed Breath of the Wild 2 would be the major release but the latest rumors from a few months ago said it probably wouldn't be out this year. If its not BotW2 I have no idea what it'd be.

The main contenders would seem to be BotW2 or a 3D Mario, or maybe even the start of a brand new 2D Mario series. Metroid isn't gonna be out this year and that franchise isn't a mega seller anyways. I'm assuming Bayonetta 3 will be out this Fall but that's much more a secondary game as it also isn't a mega seller.

In 2017 they had Odyssey as the major buy for the holidays, but had already launched 3 mega sellers earlier in the year. 2018 they had Pokemon Let's Go and Smash, with Mario Party as the secondary game though even that is about to be a 10 million seller. 2019 they had Pokemon and secondary game was Luigi's Mansion but again even that should end up being a 10 million seller. Now this year we've got AC out but they obviously need another huge selling game for the holidays.

I still think BotW2 is the most likely thing and maybe the rumors that it's taking too long are wrong. If that ends up not being ready maybe we're just gonna get a bunch of smaller titles like Bayonetta 3, the whole onslaught of Mario 35th anniversary games, maybe some HD ports like Metroid Prime Trilogy HD, and some Zelda HD games (personally I really want Wind Waker HD on Switch!). But it's hard to imagine, especially this year with new systems launching, that they won't have some centerpiece game for the holidays that says to people "forget the other systems, this is the must have game of the holidays!".

Basically the highlighted (though Metroid Prime Trilogy is more just out of hope) plus Bravely Default 2 and No More Heroes 3, along with whatever other random stuff gets thrown in. Animal Crossing is so huge right now it almost accounts for two big hitters, and then Xenoblade Definitive should be great even as just a secondary title getting people through to the holidays.

That'd be more than a good enough year for Switch, but if they could have one more huge surprise like BotW2, or something completely unexpected, that could almost be a knockout punch. The other game we actually know about that could be floated around is SMTV, but really, how many big JRPGs do you need in one year (or basically half a year, given the likely release dates). I'd rather they not prioritise that over something else for this year at least.

M4

Before the pandemic I really believed that BOTW2 could be a holiday 2020 release. Now there's no chance.

I honestly don't know. But I just hope they some sort of system seller for the holidays.

A Mario game and a Pokemon remake.

We should see a Mario and Zelda title this year. At least a remake or port of an older game.

A big holiday title could be a sequel or spin-off to the 2017 lineup (Zelda BOTW, Mario Kart, Splatoon, Mario Odyssey, 1-2 Switch, ARMS, Sonic). I expect a racing game (Diddy Kong Racing, Mario Kart spin off/Nintendo Kart) as addition and not replacement of Mario Kart 8 and an unannounced motion control focused game (perhaps another Ring-Con game).

The Mario collection is an easy 10 million seller and they might just try to push that in November

I'm guessing (it is truly just a guess) that we'll see a new 2D Mario. There hasn't been one on Switch yet. You could say the same about Kart, but the old one is still selling like crazy. So, no reason to burn that title yet.

Bayonetta 3 and BotW2 are my two votes. Unless they pull an announcement in June with a release window by the end of the year (similar to how Mario Odyssey and Xenoblade 2 was announced and soon after released), I really cannot think of anything else they would have ready. Possibly Mario remaster collections, but I don't see that being the only thing they will have to offer.

Prime 4 and SMTV, I have a sneaking suspension will be coming next year.

Probably a port or remaster of a Wii U game. 3D World or something. As crazy it is seems, NSMBU is already a top seller on the Switch.