I think the original plan was BotW 2 for the holidays.  It's not going to happen though.  The pandemic is going to slow things down too much.  By the same token Sony and Microsoft will not release their consoles this year.  It's all getting pushed back.  The Black Widow movie is getting pushed back from May to November.  Do we really think the video game companies can stay on schedule when Disney can't?  Nope.  Not going to happen.  The only difference is we are seeing the movie delays sooner.  The video game delays are going to be felt for most of the rest of this year though.

So, if you want to know what will happen this year, you need to play "let's pretend".  Let's pretend the pandemic hit last year.  What would have happened?  Pokemon and Luigi's Mansion would have been pushed back.  Everything around the middle of the year would be pushed to the holidays.  So, Nintendo's "big" holiday release would have been Super Mario Maker 2, with Fire Emblem and maybe Astral Chain being other holiday titles around the same time.  That's what will happen this year.  Whatever titles they had planned for summer/early fall will be their holiday titles.  It might be that 3D Mario compilation plus a couple of more small to mid tier titles.  Expect something like that.

Only thing that might really continue this year is indie titles.  Some indies can probably work from home effectively.  Others can't.  So we are going to keep getting indie titles, but even that will be diminished.

Don't count out Super Mario Odyssey 2 (but Corona maybe delays it). Think about it, every single major Nintendo release has paid DLC except Super Mario Odyssey. That's odd, they could make big cash-grab money with it. Why they don't do it? Because they decided to make a real successor. Then we have the 35th anniversary of Super Mario Bros. and that they use the same engine as on the first title and it is a very likely scenario.

However, there's this rumor about a new Paper Mario. If they bring Paper Mario of course they will not kill it with Super Mario Odyssey 2.

Yeah I could see this. A few months ago I speculated on this though and someone pointed out we got two 2D Mario games last year so it's unlikely another one would come this year. But I figure it's a possibility. I'd rather have BotW2, but considering the whole Mario 35th anniversary stuff I could totally see them readying a brand new 2D Mario as the headlining game for the anniversary campaign. I mean the NSMBUD Mario port is probably at about 6 million now, so a brand new 2D Mario game (which I assume would be a new series and not a continuation of the "New" series) should be a guaranteed 10+ million seller, which is plenty good for a major holiday release.

Even without BotW2, I think it'd be plenty if the Fall lineup was something like: a couple 35th anniversary Mario ports or remasters, brand new 2D Mario series, Metroid Prime Trilogy HD, Bayonetta 3, and then something unannounced like Pikmin or Star Fox.

Captain Rainbow 2

I'm really hoping it isn't the Mario Collection. I love the plumber as much as anyone else but this would not excite me at all. "Hey, let's re-release games in HD for the holiday!" Nah, I'll pass. I know a ton of other people would hop on it, they're great games if the rumor is true but I have to have something new.

That being said it's either Breath of the Wild 2 which is looking unlikely but not impossible, a new Mario Kart, or something we don't know about. I hope it's something we don't know about or expect. I don't think it's Pokemon because the Tundra DLC will be out then to take the Pokemon slot.

But what's the most likely? Based off rumors it looks like a new Mario Kart but that just doesn't make much sense to me. I want a new Kart badly but 8 is still selling like a new game in a lot of territories. They'd be shooting the legs of 8 Deluxe.

I don’t think botw 2 has ever been targeted for 2020, and if it was Corona has definitely killed any chance. It might’ve killed the chance for anything they had planned for q4 outside of ports/remasters. But my money is on a 3D World sequel honestly. This makes the most sense to me because a 3D world deluxe port has been heavily rumored for years now, yet we haven’t gotten it. So I think they started working on a deluxe version and realized they had enough new level ideas for a new game (kinda like what happened with galaxy 2). It also makes sense because Nintendo would want a big mario paltformer that’s focused on multiplayer (something Odyssey falls short on) and the hybrid style seems more suited for a modern audience than another new NSMB side scroller, which I feel have run their course in terms of huge appeal.

 I’m curious how you know this?

I wasn’t aware Nintendo had given any status update on the game’s dev progress and how much is left to do on it.

For the record - software companies can still operate remotely.

Bayonetta 3 or something not yet announced.

I haven't really followed it much, but I did come across this video after the last direct:

Seems to mostly be driven by fan speculation, but they seem pretty confident about it. I don't watch many of this guy's videos either, so I can't exactly vouch for him.