Correct me if I'm wrong (I know very little about AMR processors), but aren't those Hercules chips designed for security tasks? I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Nvidia has licensed them just to make their own SoC more safe.

As for the node and TDP of the SoC inside the Switch' successor, we should remember that we're not only talking about Nvidia, but also Nintendo. The Switch launched with original Tegra X1 chips made at a 20nm node (already dated) and, despite that chip being rated at 15W TDP, Nintendo lowered clocks to reduce heat and power consumption even more.

I don't think Nintendo will jump to 7, much less 5nm tech, and the chip will also have to use very little power to make it suitable for a handheld without burning the owners hands.

Considering it is the codename in the ARM client cpu roadmap, I'm not sure if it can have multiple purposes and whether or not Nintendo jumps to 7nm or 5nm would really depend on what type of deal Nvidia and Nintendo can leverage from Samsung, since they are actively looking to acquire more fabrication business away from TSMC.

Again the X1 wasn't that old considering Switch was originally supposed to release holiday 2016 and I'm sure Nvidia probably gave Nintendo a great deal seeing as how Switch easily cleared out whatever X1 stockpiles they might have had(Maybe even with future promise to deliver a cutting edge chip to Nintendo for the next Switch). Not to mention those were stagnant times for node reductions, many of the foundries were struggling to get finfet up and running. 

I mentioned before that Nintendo did a 1 billion dollar deal with IBM just for cpu tech, so they aren't strangers to spending money if it benefits the long game. They're all in on Switch as it's currently their only avenue for generating longevity in the hardware space, so we might conclude this as a sign of them getting more aggressive instead of less. I only mention that because they don't have another successful platform to fall back on like the did with 3ds, when WiiU was failing...

https://www.arm.com/company/news/2018/08/accelerating-mobile-and-laptop-performance

Well we do know that both Microsoft and Sony are expecting file sizes to go down on the next systems because of not needing the redundant files stored on the hdd with the massively improved seek times of SSD... I do agree though, it would be pretty pointless for Switch 2 to try or need to produce native 4k visuals with such advanced Ai reproduction techniques available. 

Yeah. Nintendo will go where the technology goes. - They don't give a crap about making a clean break and doing what Nintendo does.

But Tegra is still improving.

Orin will be scalable just like Tegra X1/Maxwell.
Configurable TDP's and Semi-Custom alterations are a thing you know.

Tegra Xavier for example has 10w, 15w and 30w operating modes.

Plus we don't have all the information on what Orin actually is.

The emphasis on flops is misleading, it's not the be-all, end-all.

While Xavier can be configured down, it looses a lot of performance along the way. At 10W, it's GPU performance is barely above Switch under sustained stress, though the CPU is still ways above the A57 in the Switch. If tweaked properly, I think with Xavier one could achieve a 40-50% increase over OG Switch performance at same power draw.

Xavier is based on Volta.
Either way... It's certainly more than 50%.

The move from Tegra X1 to Tegra X2 would bring about a 50% improvement at the same Powerlevel... Because Pascal (Tegra X2) basically takes Maxwell (Tegra X1) and is re-engineered (I.E. More Transisters) to sustain higher clockrates without a significant power penalty.

We saw this occur on the PC. Significant clockrate improvements at the same powerlevel.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/10325/the-nvidia-geforce-gtx-1080-and-1070-founders-edition-review/6

Now Tegra Volta (Let's call it Tegra X3 for simplicity sake!) takes what was good about Pascal but makes a plethora of quality-of-life changes, that is more CUDA Cores, Tensor Cores (A.I upscaling!) and that was able to provide us with a 10-25% uplift of Titan Pascal on the PC. And that was with shit drivers.
https://www.anandtech.com/show/12170/nvidia-titan-v-preview-titanomachy/7
https://www.anandtech.com/show/13282/nvidia-turing-architecture-deep-dive/4

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a 75%-100% low-balled performance increase once we start to account for the architectural efficiency gains, clockrates and more functional units.

We also need to keep in mind that Tegra X3 is built at 12nm, not a modern 7nm, so there is some potential still left on the table to reduce power consumption, increase clockrates or the number of functional units. (With the 512 CUDA variant.)

https://www.anandtech.com/show/13282/nvidia-turing-architecture-deep-dive/4

https://www.anandtech.com/show/13584/nvidia-xavier-agx-hands-on-carmel-and-more

https://www.anandtech.com/show/15070/nvidia-gives-jetson-xavier-a-trim-announces-nanosized-jetson-xavier-nx


Orin changes it all up again of course.

The result came from putting a Jetson TX1 and a Jetson Xavier both at 10W and against each other in gaming tasks and benches. Believe me when I say that Xavier doesn't have much reserves at low power in these tasks.

Both Xavier and Orin are axed towards AI and Deep Learning and away from Gaming. They are much more powerful than the X1, but can't tap into that power in Gaming tasks unless specifically programmed to, which would be the same problem as the PS3 had with the Cell processor. Hence why I said before already, I expect NVidia to create a new Tegra design based on Turing or Next-gen more axed to gaming instead of using a Xavier or Orin variant for the Switch and their Shield line of products.

About your last link: You saw how much the performance came crushing down in the Jetson Xavier NX compared to Xavier? And how the price shot up from the Jetson TX1 or even the original Nano (which is cut down and weaker than the Switch btw)? Due to this, I just don't expect even cutdown versions of Xavier or Orin as viable in a handheld console.