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Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

jason1637 on 04 November 2020

Biden lead down to 80k in Arizona. More results coming from there at 12:30am est.



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Runa216 on 04 November 2020
TheFallen said:
Trump's been in full in full damge control I see.

Truth and reason have never been his strong points. It's all about image and pride. He is a manchild, after all.



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JWeinCom on 04 November 2020
Runa216 said:
TheFallen said:
Trump's been in full in full damge control I see.

Truth and reason have never been his strong points. It's all about image and pride. He is a manchild, after all.

That is an insult to men and children.



jason1637 on 04 November 2020

Btw the US had more coronavirus cases today than it's ever had.



Cerebralbore101 on 04 November 2020

According to 538 Arizona is still very much up in the air. Normally Democrats do mail in voting more than Republicans. But Republicans have a long history of mail in ballots in AZ specifically. So if Trump gets 59% of the remaining Maricopa County ballots he can eek out a win in AZ. But that assumes that Dem leaning Pima County doesn't add massively to Biden's lead once it gets counted.

TL/DR AZ is about as much up in the air as Georgia.



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rapsuperstar31 on 05 November 2020
sundin13 said:

I did some math comparing 538 polls and the results (as of now on NYT). 

Result  Polls  Difference Poll Lean
Alaska -30 -7.7 22.3 D
Arizona 3 2.6 -0.4 R
Colorado 14 12.5 -1.5 R
Georgia -0.9 1.2 2.1 D
Indiana -19 -10.8 8.2 D
Iowa -8 -1.3 6.7 D
Kansas -16 -12.9 3.1 D
Maine 11 13 2 D
Michigan 2 7.9 5.9 D
Minnesota 7 9.2 2.2 D
Montana -16 -4.4 11.6 D
Nevada 0.6 5.3 4.7 D
New Hamp 8 11.1 3.1 D
N Carolina -1.4 1.8 3.2 D
Ohio -8 -0.8 7.2 D
Pennsylvania -3 4.7 7.7 D
S Carolina -12 -7.1 4.9 D
Texas -6 -1.1 4.9 D
Utah -20 -9.8 10.2 D
Virginia 9 11.8 2.8 D
Wisconsin 0.6 8.4 7.8 D
Average 4.82

I excluded Alaska from the average because there are so few votes counted, but overall there was a 4.82 point Dem lean in the state polls for all states deemed "Lean" or "Toss Up" (I don't think this is too far out of the expected range as an average). I expect this to shrink as more mail in ballots are counted and things swing a little more to the left, but it is real interesting.

Particularly, I am baffled by the Midwest block. Some of the polls were pretty good (Minnesota and likely PA), but others were waaay off. How in the hell did that happen?

EDIT: Positive results are Dem leaning, negative are Rep leaning.

When you head from Minneapolis MN to Eau Claire Wisconsin once you get past Hudson Wisconsin 99.9% of the signs are Trump.  The polls need to figure something out, they have been way off in both 2016 and today.



PAOerfulone on 05 November 2020

So far, Trump is closing the gap in Arizona; Biden's lead is down to 79k with 86% counted.
However, Biden is closing the gap in Georgia; Trump's lead is down to 23k with 95% counted.



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vivster on 05 November 2020

Biden might win bigly here.



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Barozi on 05 November 2020
Barozi said:
Next Pennsylvania batch in (roughly 59k).

Biden's share was 75% (44k) this time. Still on track.

355k more since the last time I looked at Pennsylvania.

72% of them favoured Biden. Lead down to 164k.

still doable.



Cerebralbore101 on 05 November 2020
PAOerfulone said:
So far, Trump is closing the gap in Arizona; Biden's lead is down to 79k with 86% counted.
However, Biden is closing the gap in Georgia; Trump's lead is down to 23k with 95% counted.

Biden's lead is now down to 68,000 in AZ with around 88% counted. Biden lost 11,000 of his lead with this 2% counted. If Biden keeps losing his lead at this rate he will have a razor thin AZ lead of 2,000 by the time all of the AZ vote is counted. AZ shouldn't have been called on election night. Trump might still take AZ.