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Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Damn I think this might be the closest election in decades



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Mnementh said:
jason1637 said:

So Arizona has to count ballots dropped off on election day and these ballots favor trump by 20% so he has a chance at flipping the state.
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?

If Arizona goes to Trump, then whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election. Except if Georgia really goes to Biden, but I am doubtful.

EDIT: For the record - I am also doubtful Arizona really goes to Trump, Biden leads with 100K there.

https://www.azfamily.com/news/politics/election_headquarters/explainer-why-ap-called-arizona-for-biden/article_924ca49e-1e9b-11eb-8d70-ab46aeff34e0.html

Basically, to assume late Maricopa/Tucson mail ballots will deliver margins close to what Trump got on election day statewide is fanfiction. You could stretch it and try to argue that perhaps party registration will make it a close call, but these are mostly young/first-time voters that will tend to the left of their statewide averages.



 

 

 

 

 

Dulfite said:
Collins winning Maine is a HUGE relief to me. I was more concerned about the Senate than the Presidency, what with Democrats threatening to expand the Supreme Court (because they are used to the Court going there way for decades on major issues, such as abortion and Obamacare, and they can't tolerate it being origanalistic-leaning for once) and threatening to add states to the union just to give themselves a perpetual advantage going forward in the Senate (D.C. and Puerto Rico). D.C. should just rejoin a state if they are so desperate to be counted towards the senate. Their lands were literally taken out of existing states, not like they were settlers moving into untamed lands, so if they want statehood they should vote to remerge with another state like Maryland, where they will have other like-mindedly liberal individuals and they can all be happy together. And Puerto Ricans are pretty divided on what they want to do so I doubt they could all get behind that anyway.

Anyway, with Alaska and the two Georgia races going Republican (at least I'm assuming based on numbers so far), looks like Republicans will keep control of the Senate with at least 51, possibly up to 52 or 53. Collins is a moderate, so she will no doubt confirm Biden appointed justices (which, worse case for conservatives, means 50-50 tie in the Senate with Harris being the tie breaker). What this means going forward, if Biden wins (which I expect him to at this point):

1) Biden won't get anything done that isn't bipartisan for at least 2 years. Honestly he's probably happy with that. I don't think Biden particularly likes Sanders/Warren/AOC. I get the impression, on core issues, he feels more in line with moderates in his party (regardless of what he says on TV to appease the socialists). And the only way he is getting anything done is if he can get Collins on board, and not lose vulnerable votes from democrats in red/purple states concerned about their own re-election chances in 2-4 years (Manchin, Sinema, Tester). That's at least 4 moderates he will have to appease to get things done. None of those four do I anticipate voting for huge environmental reform bills, or massive government spending on new programs. Because of this, I suspect Biden's first 2 years, and possibly his entire first term, will be mostly a "chill" presidency, which may be what we all need anyway haha. 4 years of nothing happening would probably calm people down some.

2) The chances of Harris invoking the 25th amendment just decreased. She won't have the backing of the Senate to enact extremely liberal policies, which will make losing moderate Democrats support when she runs for re-election (by betraying Biden) less "worth it" in the short term, as she won't be able to accomplish much. Unless Biden literally can't do the job, I don't think he will be removed from office. And if he does get removed, I suspect Harris to nominate a moderate as her VP to balance it out. If Democrats had picked up enough of the Senate to give them, say, a 53-47 lead with Harris, I suspect Harris would 25th amendment Biden, nominate an ultra liberal as her VP, and do whatever she wants for at least 2 years.

Hey, as an R leaning voter I'd like to hear from you, what exactly scares you so much about the Democratic party?

Is it gender/identity/racial politics? Government spending? Fear of some radical reform, such as PR statehood?

Also, please do elaborate on your point about huge environmental reform bills if you will. Surely local/private solar or wind power generation befits the notion of freedom more than depending on distant power plants? Or do you think those untouched wildernesses are there to be exploited by man for some short term economic benefit? Or it's just about not wanting, say, huge carbon taxes on oil companies/gas?



 

 

 

 

 

Dulfite said:
Collins winning Maine is a HUGE relief to me. I was more concerned about the Senate than the Presidency, what with Democrats threatening to expand the Supreme Court (because they are used to the Court going there way for decades on major issues, such as abortion and Obamacare, and they can't tolerate it being origanalistic-leaning for once) and threatening to add states to the union just to give themselves a perpetual advantage going forward in the Senate (D.C. and Puerto Rico). D.C. should just rejoin a state if they are so desperate to be counted towards the senate. Their lands were literally taken out of existing states, not like they were settlers moving into untamed lands, so if they want statehood they should vote to remerge with another state like Maryland, where they will have other like-mindedly liberal individuals and they can all be happy together. And Puerto Ricans are pretty divided on what they want to do so I doubt they could all get behind that anyway.

Anyway, with Alaska and the two Georgia races going Republican (at least I'm assuming based on numbers so far), looks like Republicans will keep control of the Senate with at least 51, possibly up to 52 or 53. Collins is a moderate, so she will no doubt confirm Biden appointed justices (which, worse case for conservatives, means 50-50 tie in the Senate with Harris being the tie breaker). What this means going forward, if Biden wins (which I expect him to at this point):

1) Biden won't get anything done that isn't bipartisan for at least 2 years. Honestly he's probably happy with that. I don't think Biden particularly likes Sanders/Warren/AOC. I get the impression, on core issues, he feels more in line with moderates in his party (regardless of what he says on TV to appease the socialists). And the only way he is getting anything done is if he can get Collins on board, and not lose vulnerable votes from democrats in red/purple states concerned about their own re-election chances in 2-4 years (Manchin, Sinema, Tester). That's at least 4 moderates he will have to appease to get things done. None of those four do I anticipate voting for huge environmental reform bills, or massive government spending on new programs. Because of this, I suspect Biden's first 2 years, and possibly his entire first term, will be mostly a "chill" presidency, which may be what we all need anyway haha. 4 years of nothing happening would probably calm people down some.

2) The chances of Harris invoking the 25th amendment just decreased. She won't have the backing of the Senate to enact extremely liberal policies, which will make losing moderate Democrats support when she runs for re-election (by betraying Biden) less "worth it" in the short term, as she won't be able to accomplish much. Unless Biden literally can't do the job, I don't think he will be removed from office. And if he does get removed, I suspect Harris to nominate a moderate as her VP to balance it out. If Democrats had picked up enough of the Senate to give them, say, a 53-47 lead with Harris, I suspect Harris would 25th amendment Biden, nominate an ultra liberal as her VP, and do whatever she wants for at least 2 years.

What a nice House of Cards plot 



What’s the story with Nevada? That one’s too close for comfort.



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sales2099 said:
Runa216 said:

I hope he loses, but I'm absolutely disgusted that, despite of (or because of) everything Trump did up to this point, people still have faith in him. Either all the bigotry and wild immaturity and lack of credentials wasn't a dealbreaker, or that's WHY they like him. Either his gross misconduct concerning Covid isn't important, or itis and they actively want the lax security and value their comfort over...you know, public health and safety. Either way, I fear for the country. I'd be ashamed to call myself American if I elected this unqualified, narcissistic, bigoted, immature brat for a president. 

I’m not American, nor do I like him as a person. If I were I’d vote Trump purely because he isn’t a democrat. Say what you will about his personality, he did a lot of things in his term. The economy was surging under his term. He is an alternative to the increasingly socialist policies of the dems. Russia/North Korea aren’t active threats anymore. Iran has been defanged with the general being assassinated along with pulling out of the nuclear deal. Killing the ISIS leader, reaching a stepping stone to peace with Israel and countries it conflicts with. 

Economy and foreign policy were his strengths. Covid response and border policy are his major faults...along with every unfiltered thing he says lol. 

None of this actually outweighs the crimes he committed towards his country. And I mean the other crimes additionally to his financial and constitutional crimes. It is obvious that the majority wants expanded social programs, yet he did the opposite, he killed hundred of thousands of people in a pandemic he actively sabotaged by downplaying it and going against scientists, he irreparably damaged the US' reputation among all of its allies, he pulled out of the WHO, he pulled out of of the Paris climate agreement, he pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal which is widely regarded as a mutually beneficial deal for everyone including Israel, he put back efforts against climate change again by discrediting scientists, he encouraged and emboldened white supremacist groups, he sent federal agents to illegally suppress protests, he sabotaged the election and democracy itself by dismantling the USPS, a lot of his (ex-)advisors are under criminal investigation despite his promises to "drain the swamp", he spent billions on a border wall nobody wants or needs that is effectively useless and hurtful to landowners, he gave billionaires tax cuts for no reason, his spending in general is out of control and the country's debt is at a record high. The economy you speak of isn't fine. The only thing that is fine is billionaires and the stock market since he saw to that, while the poorest and the middle class are still suffering, now more than ever.

This is just from the top of my head. That's another real problem with him. He said so many lies and did so many horrible things you cannot even count them all. He lied in office literally thousands of times. There is no Democratic or Republican President ever he is comparable to. He is simply by the sheer sum of his misdeeds the worst President in the history of the country and the foreseeable future.



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sales2099 said:

Russia/North Korea aren’t active threats anymore.

Right. Russia is weak, but to me it seems like its information operations in western countries have been extremely successful at dividing nations. The US on the other hand is possibly the most divided western nation, with a plausible threat of getting its presidential election stolen by a candidate unwilling to adhere to democracy. Isolationist tendencies hinder international influence. Guess who on the other hand is increasing its international influence, all the while also growing its economy? China. To me, the US has never seemed this weak during my lifetime, and with the divided nation, changing direction seems quite tough. As a European with no special interest in US politics, I'm definitely lacking a lot of information, but each day I'm getting worse vibes, and rarely better. If anything, to me it seems like while Russia hasn't improved its own situation per se, it has managed to hurt western countries, thus improving its position internationally.

Also, not sure what the deal with North Korea is. Sure, it's not an active threat, but it doesn't seem like anything real has been achieved. Just yesterday we got reports that North Korea might be developing a submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles, and that's with North Korea having at least some sort of a nuclear threat to possible use with it.



PAOerfulone said:
What’s the story with Nevada? That one’s too close for comfort.

They gave up counting today. Will continue tomorrow. 



vivster said:
sales2099 said:

I’m not American, nor do I like him as a person. If I were I’d vote Trump purely because he isn’t a democrat. Say what you will about his personality, he did a lot of things in his term. The economy was surging under his term. He is an alternative to the increasingly socialist policies of the dems. Russia/North Korea aren’t active threats anymore. Iran has been defanged with the general being assassinated along with pulling out of the nuclear deal. Killing the ISIS leader, reaching a stepping stone to peace with Israel and countries it conflicts with. 

Economy and foreign policy were his strengths. Covid response and border policy are his major faults...along with every unfiltered thing he says lol. 

None of this actually outweighs the crimes he committed towards his country. And I mean the other crimes additionally to his financial and constitutional crimes. It is obvious that the majority wants expanded social programs, yet he did the opposite, he killed hundred of thousands of people in a pandemic he actively sabotaged by downplaying it and going against scientists, he irreparably damaged the US' reputation among all of its allies, he pulled out of the WHO, he pulled out of of the Paris climate agreement, he pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal which is widely regarded as a mutually beneficial deal for everyone including Israel, he put back efforts against climate change again by discrediting scientists, he encouraged and emboldened white supremacist groups, he sent federal agents to illegally suppress protests, he sabotaged the election and democracy itself by dismantling the USPS, a lot of his (ex-)advisors are under criminal investigation despite his promises to "drain the swamp", he spent billions on a border wall nobody wants or needs that is effectively useless and hurtful to landowners, he gave billionaires tax cuts for no reason, his spending in general is out of control and the country's debt is at a record high. The economy you speak of isn't fine. The only thing that is fine is billionaires and the stock market since he saw to that, while the poorest and the middle class are still suffering, now more than ever.

This is just from the top of my head. That's another real problem with him. He said so many lies and did so many horrible things you cannot even count them all. He lied in office literally thousands of times. There is no Democratic or Republican President ever he is comparable to. He is simply by the sheer sum of his misdeeds the worst President in the history of the country and the foreseeable future.

And even with all of that, half of the country still sided with him. Imagine that. Speaks volumes of the way people see the Democrats. 



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Hiku said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/03/election-ballot-delays-usps/

Insane that this is a headline in USA and not some banana republic.

In spite of that though:

^Avengers SPOILERS

I actually watched Endgame in the hours leading up to the election, specifically because I knew that this was a likely scenario, and wanted to have that frame of mind.

PAOerfulone said:
What’s the story with Nevada? That one’s too close for comfort.

Nevada is going to announce all of its ballots at once... I think it might be intentionally to avoid one side from demanding to stop the counting since the vote is so close.

Realistically though, Nevada is a lock. The votes left are mail in ballots, and mainly from Clark County (Vegas). Considering how mail in ballots have been going so hard for Democrats, it's hard to see any scenario where this doesn't boost democrat numbers.