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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: ACNH Will Become Best Selling GOAT in Japan [Update 7.15mil]

trunkswd said:

@SpokenTruth We recently updated the Methodology page to reflect the fact we stopped doing software estimates at the end of 2018 and now report on official global shipment figures. 

Data-Collection Methodology

Since the end of 2018 VGChartz no longer produces estimates for software sales. This is because the high digital market share for software was making it both more difficult to produce reliable retail estimates and also making those estimates increasingly unrepresentative of the wider performance of the games in question. As a result, on the software front we now only record official shipment/sales data, where such data is made available by developers and publishers. The legacy data remains on the site for those who are interested in browsing through it.

On the hardware front we continue to produce weekly estimates, based on retail sampling and trends in individual countries, which are then extrapolated to represent the wider region. This typically allows us to produce figures that end up being within 10% of the actual totals.

This data is regularly compared against official shipment figures released by the console manufacturers and figures estimated by regional trackers with greater market coverage than ourselves (such as Famitsu in Japan or NPD in North America). We then update our own estimates to bring them into line with those figures. This can result in frequent changes often within a short space of time, but we feel it's important to prioritise accuracy over consistency.

Our weekly hardware estimates break down into the following regions (individual countries/regions tracked are shown in brackets):

  • - Americas (US, Canada & Latin America)
  • - Europe (UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux & the Nordic countries)
  • - Asia (Japan, mainland Asia & the Middle East)
  • - Oceania (Australia & New Zealand)

If you have any further questions feel free to contact us at: vgchartz.com">contact@vgchartz.com

I knew the data collection had changed.  I was just under the impression that as official data came in that the game pages were updated to reflect it.  Not just total sales but regional if available.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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SpokenTruth said:
trunkswd said:

@SpokenTruth We recently updated the Methodology page to reflect the fact we stopped doing software estimates at the end of 2018 and now report on official global shipment figures. 

Data-Collection Methodology

Since the end of 2018 VGChartz no longer produces estimates for software sales. This is because the high digital market share for software was making it both more difficult to produce reliable retail estimates and also making those estimates increasingly unrepresentative of the wider performance of the games in question. As a result, on the software front we now only record official shipment/sales data, where such data is made available by developers and publishers. The legacy data remains on the site for those who are interested in browsing through it.

On the hardware front we continue to produce weekly estimates, based on retail sampling and trends in individual countries, which are then extrapolated to represent the wider region. This typically allows us to produce figures that end up being within 10% of the actual totals.

This data is regularly compared against official shipment figures released by the console manufacturers and figures estimated by regional trackers with greater market coverage than ourselves (such as Famitsu in Japan or NPD in North America). We then update our own estimates to bring them into line with those figures. This can result in frequent changes often within a short space of time, but we feel it's important to prioritise accuracy over consistency.

Our weekly hardware estimates break down into the following regions (individual countries/regions tracked are shown in brackets):

  • - Americas (US, Canada & Latin America)
  • - Europe (UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux & the Nordic countries)
  • - Asia (Japan, mainland Asia & the Middle East)
  • - Oceania (Australia & New Zealand)

If you have any further questions feel free to contact us at: vgchartz.com">contact@vgchartz.com

I knew the data collection had changed.  I was just under the impression that as official data came in that the game pages were updated to reflect it.  Not just total sales but regional if available.

Nope. Right now it is just global shipment figures. Sure we do get Famitsu figures every week, but those aren't official and is for retail only.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
SpokenTruth said:

I knew the data collection had changed.  I was just under the impression that as official data came in that the game pages were updated to reflect it.  Not just total sales but regional if available.

Nope. Right now it is just global shipment figures. Sure we do get Famitsu figures every week, but those aren't official and is for retail only.

Fair enough.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Metallox said:
It won't. 5 million max is my take.

Problem is 5mil isn’t the max, he’ll I think that’s the average prediction 

pokemon SS is well over 4mil right now

super smash is gonna end around 4.5mil lifetime

AC probably going to be 5mil by years end at this rate



Great to see you and your predictions are back tbone.

I also believe in Animal Crossing



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I think 5-6 million is doable



Updated so 7.5mil lifetime for me



I don’t know the answer to that. What I can say is that it will join Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8, and Witcher 3 as my most played Switch games. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is the gatekeeper for what I consider top most played games in my library.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

So 7.5mil looking good hopefully with a start of best opening ever in japan. Waiting on the results



It's off to a very good start. I'd say at this point you're likely correct. But it's a very weird time for making predictions based on initial data given the distance to the holidays. Sales will inevitably cool off, and it's a matter of whether or not the fire remains until the holidays, or at least a spark for re-ignition which is the big unknown - assuming Nintendo doesn't have a firestriker update in the plans.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.