| RolStoppable said: Now that's an actual bold prediction because we are talking about a market that cannot benefit from population growth because there is none. Becoming the best-selling AC is one thing (which looks like a given), but that still leaves quite a bit more sales to go in order to reach the predicted target. This is a thread worthy of the tbone51 name. I am 60/40 on this, meaning it's slightly more probable to come true than not. |
Thank you good sir, now let’s have a looksie here....
If AC does in fact sells around 700k in its second week we are looking at roughly 2.6mil sold with shortages in its first 2 weeks (first quarter). Add in digital which I’ll put it under 35% (lol) so let’s say 1.2mil. That’ll make Q1 ship+Digital over 3.8mil.
AC new leaf first quarter was around 2.3mil-2.5mil? First quarter which is 8 weeks and holiday.
Now Q2 will have shortages in the beginning as well as multiple 100k/200k weeks including Golden Week holiday. That could well be over 1.4mil in Q2 alone which would put it above 5.2mil and that doesn’t include summer quarter and especially holiday quarter (and rest of life)
I don’t believe hardware will slow down anytime if we exclude worldwide shortages, so it’s looking real good. 6mil is the floor and that’s only if the game comes crashing down
