Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: W10, 2020 (Mar 02 - Mar 08)

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Pinkie_pie said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Not so sure about these things.

MasonADC said:

The only way ps4 sells 50k units ever again is with a price cut or some sort of promotion. Also, I think you might be overestimating TLOU a bit much 

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Problem is, PS4 needs already a promotion to get above 10k now. Even a 10k Yen pricecut combined with FF7R and GoT won't keep those sales up for long anymore.

Kai_Mao said:

You think The Last of Us Part II, as great of a game its anticipated to be, can create enough movement in Japan to boost PS4 sales above 15K?

Although the first game did relatively well with how it was in Japan, its a completely different climate now. Animal Crossing is dominating COMG charts by a mile compared to even FF7 Remake, which was arguably the most anticipated game ever according to Famitsu readers. The Switch is THE gaming platform in Japan outside of mobile (and maybe PC).

Marth said:

You need one hell of a boost if you want to push a 100 week average from 7k to 10k.

Marth said:

Just so we're clear you need like 4x 100k weeks to boost that average so high, numbers that the PS4 won't reach anymore

Or like 25 weeks of 20k, which will already be insanely hard to reach especially that amount.

Kai_Mao said:

I neither agree nor disagree. I'm just stating that TLoU part II, a Western-focused game, may not have it easy with the current state of gaming in Japan. What makes you think it could boost it above 15K, or even reach 50K according to what you are predicting?

Farsala said:

Yep, imo, there is no chance the PS4 gets a price cut now and thus PS4's higher sales predictions are fairly delusional.

Farsala said:

The PS4 is struggling to have decent legs at its current price point, and soon the PS3 will overtake it launch aligned. In addition, the PS4 will have its legs cut when the PS5 releases much like the PS3 did. Generally the January- March period is important for PS sales and it is already down 240k YoY. A price promotion in Feb/ March plus FF7 would have been great, but FF7 was delayed.

How wrong were all of you? Ps4 wont ever sell 50k in a week? Its impossible to reach 10 million? 

@bold, not my prediction.

The 10m still stands, even with the obvious FF7 boost, the PS4 is down 180k YoY almost a 1/3 of the way through the year. Remember the PS4 sold 1.2m last year, so being 180k down does not bode well.



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Farsala said:
Pinkie_pie said:

How wrong were all of you? Ps4 wont ever sell 50k in a week? Its impossible to reach 10 million? 

@bold, not my prediction.

The 10m still stands, even with the obvious FF7 boost, the PS4 is down 180k YoY almost a 1/3 of the way through the year. Remember the PS4 sold 1.2m last year, so being 180k down does not bode well.

Ps4 is at 9.05 million. Ps4 is still selling better than ps3 launch aligned and ps3 sold 10.5 million. Ps4 will get a price cut after ps5 releases and it will absolutely pass 10 million.  Its not hard to see how ps4 can sell 10 million but for some reason you think its impossible. Maybe you just dont want to see it achieve 10 million



Pinkie_pie said:
Farsala said:

@bold, not my prediction.

The 10m still stands, even with the obvious FF7 boost, the PS4 is down 180k YoY almost a 1/3 of the way through the year. Remember the PS4 sold 1.2m last year, so being 180k down does not bode well.

Ps4 is at 9.05 million. Ps4 is still selling better than ps3 launch aligned and ps3 sold 10.5 million. Ps4 will get a price cut after ps5 releases and it will absolutely pass 10 million.  Its not hard to see how ps4 can sell 10 million but for some reason you think its impossible. Maybe you just dont want to see it achieve 10 million

Hah, I definitely want it to sell more than 10m and even more than the PS3 and the Wii.

I never said it was impossible though.

But again this comes down to a major price cut, which I predict won't happen.



Farsala said:
Marth said:
I wish Sony had cut the price last year.
Would have been a good time and increased the baseline a bit more.

But they are insisting on the current pricepoint and will probably keep it into the next gen.

Yep, imo, there is no chance the PS4 gets a price cut now and thus PS4's higher sales predictions are fairly delusional.

Farsala said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Ps4 is at 9.05 million. Ps4 is still selling better than ps3 launch aligned and ps3 sold 10.5 million. Ps4 will get a price cut after ps5 releases and it will absolutely pass 10 million.  Its not hard to see how ps4 can sell 10 million but for some reason you think its impossible. Maybe you just dont want to see it achieve 10 million

Hah, I definitely want it to sell more than 10m and even more than the PS3 and the Wii.

I never said it was impossible though.

But again this comes down to a major price cut, which I predict won't happen.

You said fairly delusional which i assumed you thought it would be impossible. And yes ps4 need a price cut for it to surely reach 10 million but it hasnt received a price cut since 2016  so its highly likely will get a price cut just before or after ps5 releases. You seriously dont think ps4 would stay at $300 forever?



Pinkie_pie said:
Farsala said:

Yep, imo, there is no chance the PS4 gets a price cut now and thus PS4's higher sales predictions are fairly delusional.

Farsala said:

Hah, I definitely want it to sell more than 10m and even more than the PS3 and the Wii.

I never said it was impossible though.

But again this comes down to a major price cut, which I predict won't happen.

You said fairly delusional which i assumed you thought it would be impossible. And yes ps4 need a price cut for it to surely reach 10 million but it hasnt received a price cut since 2016  so its highly likely will get a price cut just before or after ps5 releases. You seriously dont think ps4 would stay at $300 forever?

The fact that it has been 4 years is the problem, they should have cut it 1-2 years ago. Instead we just get holiday price cuts.



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Pinkie_pie said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Not so sure about these things.

MasonADC said:

The only way ps4 sells 50k units ever again is with a price cut or some sort of promotion. Also, I think you might be overestimating TLOU a bit much 

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Problem is, PS4 needs already a promotion to get above 10k now. Even a 10k Yen pricecut combined with FF7R and GoT won't keep those sales up for long anymore.

Kai_Mao said:

You think The Last of Us Part II, as great of a game its anticipated to be, can create enough movement in Japan to boost PS4 sales above 15K?

Although the first game did relatively well with how it was in Japan, its a completely different climate now. Animal Crossing is dominating COMG charts by a mile compared to even FF7 Remake, which was arguably the most anticipated game ever according to Famitsu readers. The Switch is THE gaming platform in Japan outside of mobile (and maybe PC).

Marth said:

You need one hell of a boost if you want to push a 100 week average from 7k to 10k.

Marth said:

Just so we're clear you need like 4x 100k weeks to boost that average so high, numbers that the PS4 won't reach anymore

Or like 25 weeks of 20k, which will already be insanely hard to reach especially that amount.

Kai_Mao said:

I neither agree nor disagree. I'm just stating that TLoU part II, a Western-focused game, may not have it easy with the current state of gaming in Japan. What makes you think it could boost it above 15K, or even reach 50K according to what you are predicting?

Farsala said:

Yep, imo, there is no chance the PS4 gets a price cut now and thus PS4's higher sales predictions are fairly delusional.

Farsala said:

The PS4 is struggling to have decent legs at its current price point, and soon the PS3 will overtake it launch aligned. In addition, the PS4 will have its legs cut when the PS5 releases much like the PS3 did. Generally the January- March period is important for PS sales and it is already down 240k YoY. A price promotion in Feb/ March plus FF7 would have been great, but FF7 was delayed.

How wrong were all of you? Ps4 wont ever sell 50k in a week? Its impossible to reach 10 million? 

Why am I included in this? I focused mainly on The Last of Us Part II and its impact on PS4 sales. With the game now on an indefinite delay, I am not sure what it can do for moving hardware. Especially if it were to release alongside the PS5, if that were to come out this year in Japan.

Good for you believing the PS4 could still sell above 15K. Great. if it reaches 10 million, cool. If it doesn't, it doesn't deter from the fact that the console, overall, has done well.



Pinkie_pie said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Not so sure about these things.

MasonADC said:

The only way ps4 sells 50k units ever again is with a price cut or some sort of promotion. Also, I think you might be overestimating TLOU a bit much 

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Problem is, PS4 needs already a promotion to get above 10k now. Even a 10k Yen pricecut combined with FF7R and GoT won't keep those sales up for long anymore.

Kai_Mao said:

You think The Last of Us Part II, as great of a game its anticipated to be, can create enough movement in Japan to boost PS4 sales above 15K?

Although the first game did relatively well with how it was in Japan, its a completely different climate now. Animal Crossing is dominating COMG charts by a mile compared to even FF7 Remake, which was arguably the most anticipated game ever according to Famitsu readers. The Switch is THE gaming platform in Japan outside of mobile (and maybe PC).

Marth said:

You need one hell of a boost if you want to push a 100 week average from 7k to 10k.

Marth said:

Just so we're clear you need like 4x 100k weeks to boost that average so high, numbers that the PS4 won't reach anymore

Or like 25 weeks of 20k, which will already be insanely hard to reach especially that amount.

Kai_Mao said:

I neither agree nor disagree. I'm just stating that TLoU part II, a Western-focused game, may not have it easy with the current state of gaming in Japan. What makes you think it could boost it above 15K, or even reach 50K according to what you are predicting?

Farsala said:

Yep, imo, there is no chance the PS4 gets a price cut now and thus PS4's higher sales predictions are fairly delusional.

Farsala said:

The PS4 is struggling to have decent legs at its current price point, and soon the PS3 will overtake it launch aligned. In addition, the PS4 will have its legs cut when the PS5 releases much like the PS3 did. Generally the January- March period is important for PS sales and it is already down 240k YoY. A price promotion in Feb/ March plus FF7 would have been great, but FF7 was delayed.

How wrong were all of you? Ps4 wont ever sell 50k in a week? Its impossible to reach 10 million? 

Never said anything like that. I just pointed out that the boost from FFVIIR will be short-lived and quickly drop down to pre-release sales again. Which are simply not high enough anymore to reach PS3 in the end.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pinkie_pie said:

How wrong were all of you? Ps4 wont ever sell 50k in a week? Its impossible to reach 10 million? 

Never said anything like that. I just pointed out that the boost from FFVIIR will be short-lived and quickly drop down to pre-release sales again. Which are simply not high enough anymore to reach PS3 in the end.

I never said it would reach ps3. I said 10 million and that it only needed to average 10k for the next 2 years to reach that 10 million and you replied thinking it cant. So far this year it averages 20k a week.



Kai_Mao said:
Pinkie_pie said:

How wrong were all of you? Ps4 wont ever sell 50k in a week? Its impossible to reach 10 million? 

Why am I included in this? I focused mainly on The Last of Us Part II and its impact on PS4 sales. With the game now on an indefinite delay, I am not sure what it can do for moving hardware. Especially if it were to release alongside the PS5, if that were to come out this year in Japan.

Good for you believing the PS4 could still sell above 15K. Great. if it reaches 10 million, cool. If it doesn't, it doesn't deter from the fact that the console, overall, has done well.

Point is i asked you weather or not you agree with hoang that ps4 would only sell 15k for ff7 launch week you werent sure so clearly underestimated ps4 and that you didnt think ps4 could reach 10 million. It is looking very likely that it will reach 10 million now



Pinkie_pie said:
Kai_Mao said:

Why am I included in this? I focused mainly on The Last of Us Part II and its impact on PS4 sales. With the game now on an indefinite delay, I am not sure what it can do for moving hardware. Especially if it were to release alongside the PS5, if that were to come out this year in Japan.

Good for you believing the PS4 could still sell above 15K. Great. if it reaches 10 million, cool. If it doesn't, it doesn't deter from the fact that the console, overall, has done well.

Point is i asked you weather or not you agree with hoang that ps4 would only sell 15k for ff7 launch week you werent sure so clearly underestimated ps4 and that you didnt think ps4 could reach 10 million. It is looking very likely that it will reach 10 million now

Not being sure doesn't mean I was right or wrong. Not sure what you were trying to prove to me.

Its great that FFVII Remake moved hardware. Good for Sony and the PS4. Could TLoUII do it again? I don't know. Its a new gaming environment compared to last gen. The Switch is the more dominant console now, even with severe shortages affecting sales for two weeks in a row. Animal Crossing continues to sell like hotcakes even after FFVII Remake released. This year is not what we all expected, figuratively and literally. With the PS5 looming, who knows how long the PS4 can sell.

If the PS4 manages to reach 10 million, congrats to it. It finally manages to do what the Switch just did in a shorter time frame and without the need of a fad like the Wii had, even with all the hype and the third party support the Switch could ever dream of. We will eventually find out either by the end of the year or sometime next year, once the PS5 eventually becomes the focus.