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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: W10, 2020 (Mar 02 - Mar 08)

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Yeah PS5 is gonna be facing an uphill battle in Japan I reckon. Not to say it can't succeed of course, but the shift towards the greater flexibility offered by Switch and mobile, plus Sony's focus on more Western games in recent generations will put it as a disadvantage out of the gate. Whether it can rise above this challenge remains to be seen.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.



src said:
PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.

what?



src said:
PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.

Didn't the PS3 did over 10.5mil? 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

src said:
PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.

Except the Switch is selling really well at its launch price of $300, which is basically a home console price at this point. Before production slowed down this year due to the COVID-19, the OG Switch was selling more than Switch Lite, $100 cheaper than the OG Switch.

The 3DS needed a drastic price cut months after its release.

The Switch has more room to gain more consumers. Not to mention the games it has like Brain Age and Animal Crossing New Horizons gaining new consumers from new and different demographics to the Switch. What other franchise can attract the female audience, especially in Japan, like Animal Crossing?



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Dengeki Online Sales: Week 10, 2020 (Mar 02 - Mar 08)

01./00. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX (Pokemon Co.) {2020.03.06} - 138,476 / NEW
02./03. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} - 13,794 / 1,336,935
03./05. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} - 11,682 / 2,607,198
04./04. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} - 11,269 / 3,657,334
05./02. [NSW] Pokemon Sword (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} - 10,444 / 1,562,141
06./09. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) {2019.10.18} - 9,053 / 678,441
07./01. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) {2020.02.20} - 8,147 / 149,934
08./08. [NSW] Pokemon Shield (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} - 7,931 / 1,061,511
09./12. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} - 6,688 / 1,358,318
10./10. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo) {2019.12.27} - 6,350 / 167,756
11./13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} - 5,978 / 3,238,999
12./19. [NSW] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) {2020.02.13} - 5,963 / 75,910
13./00. [NSW] Doraemon: Nobita no Shin Kyouryuu (FuRyu) {2020.03.05} - 5,700 / NEW
14./14. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) {2019.11.01} - 5,456 / 296,608
15./06. [NSW] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) {2020.02.20} - 5,411 / 65,146
16./16. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} - 5,100 / 823,625
17./15. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 (Nintendo) {2019.10.31} - 4,629 / 614,142
18./20. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} - 4,229 / 823,372
19./23. [NSW] Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25} - 4,044 / 410,267
20./21. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} - 4,006 / 1,180,880
21./24. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy: Versus (Cygames) {2020.02.06} - 3,053 / 107,469
22./25. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} - 3,041 / 465,579
23./22. [PS4] Katana Kami: A Way of the Samurai Story (Spike Chunsoft) {2020.02.20} - 2,950 / 20,063
24./26. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - Definitive Edition (Square Enix) {2019.09.27} - 2,467 / 513,628
25./07. [NSW] Mega Man Zero/ZX Legacy Collection (Capcom) {2020.02.27} - 2,294 / 12,234
26./30. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition (Capcom) {2019.09.06} - 2,088 / 470,060
27./27. [PS4] Yakuza: Like a Dragon (Sega) {2020.01.16} - 1,780 / 243,172
28./29. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai Namco Games) {2020.01.16} - 1,773 / 159,024
29./34. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} - 1,753 / 1,916,308
30./69. [NSW] Obakeidoro! (Freestyle) {2019.12.19} - 1,713 / 12,059
31./38. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Edition (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.11.07} - 1,585 / 24,626
32./18. [PS4] One Punch Man: A Hero Nobody Knows (Bandai Namco Games) {2020.02.27} - 1,547 / 6,194
33./48. [NSW] Fit Boxing (Imagineer) {2018.12.20} - 1,512 / 69,864
34./11. [PS4] Mega Man Zero/ZX Legacy Collection (Capcom) {2020.02.27} - 1,407 / 7,576
35./40. [PS4] 13 Sentinels: Aegis Rim (Atlus) {2019.11.28} - 1,341 / 76,550
36./37. [NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo) {2019.07.26} - 1,324 / 310,372
37./45. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} - 1,276 / 820,080
38./36. [NSW] Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.10.10} - 1,271 / 156,954
39./42. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) {2019.10.17} - 1,265 / 134,258
40./52. [PS4] ARK: Survival Evolved (Spike Chunsoft) {2017.10.26} - 1,250 / 179,830
41./39. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield Double Pack (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} - 1,231 / 434,965
42./50. [NSW] Super Bomberman R [Smile Price Collection] (Konami) {2018.11.29} - 1,214 / 61,362
43./53. [NSW] Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate [Best Price] (Capcom) {2018.11.15} - 1,200 / 53,543
44./43. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (Nintendo) {2019.09.20} - 1,167 / 255,878
45./44. [PS4] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2019.10.25} - 1,129 / 217,325
46./51. [NSW] FIFA 20 Legacy Edition (Electronic Arts) {2019.09.27} - 1,118 / 55,246
47./55. [PS4] Minecraft Starter Collection (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.01.16} - 1,053 / 8,022
48./64. [PS4] eFootball Winning Eleven 2020 (Konami) {2019.09.12} - 1,000 / 131,584
49./62. [NSW] Yo-kai Watch 4++ (Level 5) {2019.12.05} - 1,000 / 83,416
50./54. [NSW] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) {2019.06.27} - 994 / 233,670

Top 50

NSW - 36
PS4 - 14

Software

Model This Week Week(%) FY 2019 FY(%)
         
Switch 326,701 81.5% 15,492,648 69.1%
PS4 67,072 16.7% 6,257,450 27.9%
3DS 5,150 1.3% 431,499 1.9%
Vita 1,699 0.4% 212,285 0.9%
ETC 404 0.1% 32,681 0.1%
         
Total 401,026 100.0% 22,426,563 100.0%

Hardware

Model This Week Week(%) FY 2019 FY(%)
         
Switch Lite 48,590 71.3% 1,493,531 26.6%
PS4 13,837 20.3% 946,618 16.8%
Switch 3,790 5.6% 3,049,123 54.2%
3DS 1,767 2.6% 118,940 2.1%
ETC 96 0.1% 7,172 0.1%
Vita 33 0.0% 6,285 0.1%
         
Total 68,113 100.0% 5,621,669 100.0%


What promotion did ps4 have this week for it to sell almost 14k? Could it be the ff7 demo that gave it a boost?



Jranation said:
src said:
PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.

Didn't the PS3 did over 10.5mil? 

10.25 million

Kai_Mao said:
src said:
PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.

Except the Switch is selling really well at its launch price of $300, which is basically a home console price at this point. Before production slowed down this year due to the COVID-19, the OG Switch was selling more than Switch Lite, $100 cheaper than the OG Switch.

The 3DS needed a drastic price cut months after its release.

The Switch has more room to gain more consumers. Not to mention the games it has like Brain Age and Animal Crossing New Horizons gaining new consumers from new and different demographics to the Switch. What other franchise can attract the female audience, especially in Japan, like Animal Crossing?

There is nothing like home console price point. Price is dependent on tech.

It's still up in the air if SW with a price cut can catch up to 3DS. It's 2.9 million behind. 

Brain Age has massively collapsed. AC is definitely a key title. 



HoangNhatAnh said:
Pinkie_pie said:

It only needs to average 10k per week for the next 2 years to reach 10 million. With ff7 remake, ghost of tsushima and price cut it will easily

Not so sure about these things.

MasonADC said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Its been averaging 13k this year without any major title released. And if you think ps4 will only sell 10-15k during ff7 or the last of us 2 week you will be in for a shock. It will sell at least 50k during ff7 and tlou2 launch week

The only way ps4 sells 50k units ever again is with a price cut or some sort of promotion. Also, I think you might be overestimating TLOU a bit much 

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pinkie_pie said:

It only needs to average 10k per week for the next 2 years to reach 10 million. With ff7 remake, ghost of tsushima and price cut it will easily

Problem is, PS4 needs already a promotion to get above 10k now. Even a 10k Yen pricecut combined with FF7R and GoT won't keep those sales up for long anymore.

Kai_Mao said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Its been averaging 13k this year without any major title released. And if you think ps4 will only sell 10-15k during ff7 or the last of us 2 week you will be in for a shock. It will sell at least 50k during ff7 and tlou2 launch week

You think The Last of Us Part II, as great of a game its anticipated to be, can create enough movement in Japan to boost PS4 sales above 15K?

Although the first game did relatively well with how it was in Japan, its a completely different climate now. Animal Crossing is dominating COMG charts by a mile compared to even FF7 Remake, which was arguably the most anticipated game ever according to Famitsu readers. The Switch is THE gaming platform in Japan outside of mobile (and maybe PC).

Marth said:
Pinkie_pie said:

It doesnt need to sell 10k or above eveery week. It only needs to average 10k for the next 2 years. I think it will sell at least 6-7k per week then there will be boost here and there to make up the 10k average 

You need one hell of a boost if you want to push a 100 week average from 7k to 10k.

Marth said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Not necessarily just 1 huge boost. Can be a few small boosts and a huge boost like ff7 releases, holidays and permanent price drop. 6-7k will happen often but not every week 

Just so we're clear you need like 4x 100k weeks to boost that average so high, numbers that the PS4 won't reach anymore

Or like 25 weeks of 20k, which will already be insanely hard to reach especially that amount.

Kai_Mao said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Tlou2 will boost ps4 way above 15k. So you also agree with hoang that ps4 will only sell 10-15k during ff7 remake release week?

I neither agree nor disagree. I'm just stating that TLoU part II, a Western-focused game, may not have it easy with the current state of gaming in Japan. What makes you think it could boost it above 15K, or even reach 50K according to what you are predicting?

Farsala said:
Marth said:
I wish Sony had cut the price last year.
Would have been a good time and increased the baseline a bit more.

But they are insisting on the current pricepoint and will probably keep it into the next gen.

Yep, imo, there is no chance the PS4 gets a price cut now and thus PS4's higher sales predictions are fairly delusional.

Farsala said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Ps4' higher sales predictions as in reaching 10 million lifetime? So you are saying ps4 has no chance of reaching 10 million? If you really think that then you are the one who is delusional 

The PS4 is struggling to have decent legs at its current price point, and soon the PS3 will overtake it launch aligned. In addition, the PS4 will have its legs cut when the PS5 releases much like the PS3 did. Generally the January- March period is important for PS sales and it is already down 240k YoY. A price promotion in Feb/ March plus FF7 would have been great, but FF7 was delayed.

How wrong were all of you? Ps4 wont ever sell 50k in a week? Its impossible to reach 10 million? 



src said:

There is nothing like home console price point. Price is dependent on tech.

It's still up in the air if SW with a price cut can catch up to 3DS. It's 2.9 million behind. 

Brain Age has massively collapsed. AC is definitely a key title. 

Imagine saying this when the gap is 2.17 million and it was 3.31 million sixteen weeks ago.