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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Here's how the next gen is gonna play out

Switch will sell more than ps5 and Xbox Series X, but not Switch's successor. Nintendo had a success and then bomb pattern. GC bombed, Wii exploded, Wii U bombed, Switch exploded. Next one will be a bomb unless they can break their pattern (my hope).

Between Series X and Ps5, I actually think MS will win for once because of all the studios they've acquired. Unless Sony can balance things out by buying more studios, MS is going to have a larger output of AAA exclusives. If they are quality then they win hardware war. If not then they will lose. MS explodes in America, someone wins Europe (by a little) and still gets crushed in Asia.

Sony numbers will be consistent as always.



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I think the PS5 and XSX will be closer in sales than the PS4 and XBO were. The XBO was less powerful than the PS4, yet cost $100 more at launch because of the forced bundling of Kinect. Between that and the PR debacles in the months leading up to launch, they lost significant market share this generation. I think they've learned from their mistakes, and the XSX, even if it costs $100 more than the PS5, could still succeed if the rumored specs are true, but MS will have to rely heavily on marketing the system as being so powerful that the higher price is worth it (and of course there's still the rumored lower-spec model).

I think the XSX and PS5 will be about tied in the U.S. and UK. Continental Europe will still be PlayStation Country, but the gap won't be nearly as big. The XSX will probably still flop in Japan, though. Overall, I think the generation will end with the PS5 at 100M and the XSX at 70M.

As for Nintendo, I think they'll simply make a Switch 2. The Switch's hybrid design is a winning formula for Nintendo, and I think they'll simply make a next-gen Switch, likely with power at least on par with the base PS4 while undocked, with a full 1080p screen, and possibly capable of 4K resolutions while docked.



sales2099 said:
Pyro as Bill said:

doubt.jpeg

Streaming isn't going to do anything btw. The tech isn't there. If they can't make a profit/sub based on turn based games there's no chance for CoD/FIFA.

Chess has been played by post for hundreds of years and is/will still be a more popular way to play than streaming.

Streaming can/will work using local hardware like WiiU. I think MS wants to be the daddy box that does it.

Oh I assume you a Nintendo guy. I meant Japan in relation to Xbox vs PS. 

I wouldn’t count out Xcloud. It’s only a soft release now in very few countries and it is a few years away from an official roll out. But that just means it won’t be a half assed launch like Stadia. So far early impressions are very positive, even for fast paced games like Halo 5. Def has more potential when using an Xbox to stream on a home TV. 

xcloud and the rest of them will be crap. It's possible we'll see backgrounds and AI 'streamed' but it seems like a solution for a problem that doesn't exist.

Ie. if the choice is streaming FIFA 2022 or playing a native version based on a FIFA16 engine, i think i know what most people would choose.

If XSX can become the workhorse in the house and stream to everything else then yeah i suppose that would count as streaming taking off.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Shadow1980 said:
I think the PS5 and XSX will be closer in sales than the PS4 and XBO were. The XBO was less powerful than the PS4, yet cost $100 more at launch because of the forced bundling of Kinect. Between that and the PR debacles in the months leading up to launch, they lost significant market share this generation. I think they've learned from their mistakes, and the XSX, even if it costs $100 more than the PS5, could still succeed if the rumored specs are true, but MS will have to rely heavily on marketing the system as being so powerful that the higher price is worth it (and of course there's still the rumored lower-spec model).

I think the XSX and PS5 will be about tied in the U.S. and UK. Continental Europe will still be PlayStation Country, but the gap won't be nearly as big. The XSX will probably still flop in Japan, though. Overall, I think the generation will end with the PS5 at 100M and the XSX at 70M.

As for Nintendo, I think they'll simply make a Switch 2. The Switch's hybrid design is a winning formula for Nintendo, and I think they'll simply make a next-gen Switch, likely with power at least on par with the base PS4 while undocked, with a full 1080p screen, and possibly capable of 4K resolutions while docked.

As big as MS's fuckups were, they still didn't drop to 14m like Nintendo did. I think 40/170 is the lowest they'll ever go assuming they receive the same 3rd party support. Their upside is at least 85/170.

Had this generation resulted in an extra 50m console owners, the next gen might have played out differently but it's conclusive now that they're fighting over the exact same 170-180m people. Both of them have to go for growth - PC.

Sometimes I wonder whether the WiiU was just a slowball to trick MS/Sony into a false sense of security. As borked as the 3DS was, it still saw off Sony from the portable market paving the way for Switch.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Dulfite said:
Switch will sell more than ps5 and Xbox Series X, but not Switch's successor. Nintendo had a success and then bomb pattern. GC bombed, Wii exploded, Wii U bombed, Switch exploded. Next one will be a bomb unless they can break their pattern (my hope).

Between Series X and Ps5, I actually think MS will win for once because of all the studios they've acquired. Unless Sony can balance things out by buying more studios, MS is going to have a larger output of AAA exclusives. If they are quality then they win hardware war. If not then they will lose. MS explodes in America, someone wins Europe (by a little) and still gets crushed in Asia.

Sony numbers will be consistent as always.

Nintendo's portable systems NEVER lose.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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Pyro as Bill said:
Dulfite said:
Switch will sell more than ps5 and Xbox Series X, but not Switch's successor. Nintendo had a success and then bomb pattern. GC bombed, Wii exploded, Wii U bombed, Switch exploded. Next one will be a bomb unless they can break their pattern (my hope).

Between Series X and Ps5, I actually think MS will win for once because of all the studios they've acquired. Unless Sony can balance things out by buying more studios, MS is going to have a larger output of AAA exclusives. If they are quality then they win hardware war. If not then they will lose. MS explodes in America, someone wins Europe (by a little) and still gets crushed in Asia.

Sony numbers will be consistent as always.

Nintendo's portable systems NEVER lose.

Well whose to say what their next device will be? If they keep this hybrid thing going or re-divide them somehow? They could make a big leap forward device and an extremely portable (smaller) Switch Extra Lite for all we know.

3ds did worse than DS by a long shot, which did better than Gameboy Advanced, which did worse than Gamrboy. There is clearly a pattern even in  portables of success and failure (or a lot less success) gen to gen. Hoping they break their pattern.



Pyro as Bill said:
TheArcadeGamer said:
I doubt the Xbox Series X will play Ps5 games. That would look bad on Sony's part.

What's Sony's alternative?

Try and get the 30m non-Xbox loyalists to buy a loss making PS5 or double their software sales on Windows?

edit:if Sony goes PC and i think they will, it's a flick of the switch for MS to make them appear on that tower thing they call an xbox

Why would Sony go PC? If anything it's Microsoft on their way out of consoles. I see this as their last stand. If series x fails they are on way out.  Let's say series x sells less than Xbox one and then the next system after series x sells less than XSX.  Game over. 

Also if hypothetical Sony did go PC it would be doubling sales on Windows platform sure but on Steam.  Besides barely anyone buys off Windows store except a few minority of people.  I think I went to Windows store once to download a free unzipper.  Oh and that Xbox live app on computer...  Lol never bothered to even load it.  Steam is the dominant store on PC by leaps and bounds.

Last edited by sethnintendo - on 25 January 2020

My expectation is that PS5 and XSX will be more expensive than most people think (and even then, heavily subventioned) they will, and that will impede sales. Considering the hardware the hardware Microsoft and Sony want to build into their consoles, I don't see much prospect of pricecuts down the line, either. At least not until they hit 3nm and have shrinked the chips down far enough to actually make some earnings out of the console outside of subscriptions and software sales.



I don;t see subscriptions really taking off tbh. Everybody is talking about game pass but PS Now is actually far bigger, holding over 52% of the game streaming market. But if you look at the top three gaming subscriptions, they count for just 6% of the overall PC and console revenues. Sony might release a couple of games on pc to test the water, but I'm pretty sure they won't be going full multiplatform with their iconic franchises that are so linked to the playstation brand.



Iv been saying phyiscal sales dont mean anything anymore even in this gen. Its all about the subs. There is too much variety these days to just focus on one aspect of a games sales especially since digital continues to grow and grow year after year.