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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

gergroy on 13 March 2020

Schools just closed in Utah. I have to figure out how to teach online for the next few weeks at least. Also, the freaking grocery stores are empty. I have never seen a hysteria like this outside of the movies. This is freaking crazy!



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SvennoJ on 13 March 2020
John2290 said:
gergroy said:
Schools just closed in Utah. I have to figure out how to teach online for the next few weeks at least. Also, the freaking grocery stores are empty. I have never seen a hysteria like this outside of the movies. This is freaking crazy!

Yep, we are in a zombie apocalypse film without the zombies. No fun if you ask me. No fun at all. ;)

Life imitating art... After all those disaster movies, no wonder people fear the worst :/



jason1637 on 13 March 2020
gergroy said:
Schools just closed in Utah. I have to figure out how to teach online for the next few weeks at least. Also, the freaking grocery stores are empty. I have never seen a hysteria like this outside of the movies. This is freaking crazy!

Try to use Zoom or Google classroom. 



Ashadelo on 13 March 2020

Its going to take more than a month. They just put a dozen plus countries on a 14 day quarantine list here in the Guangdong province yesterday. the US being one of them. Guangzhou is the international trade hub for business for China. 



我是广州人

haxxiy on 13 March 2020
John2290 said:
SvennoJ said:

And what is the time frame on these deaths and how many whitin the intital spike? Any info there?

It's probably similar to this:

Except that the 480,000 deaths scenario has 96 million infections, instead of 100 million total in the graph above, and a death rate of 0.5%. Other predictions have up to 214 million cases. All of this, of course, if containment measures aren't taken.

The graph above also estimates a peak of 366,000 ICU beds being needed sometime after the peak of the infection (around August). There will be only 95,000 available. So, ideally, you would want to drastically increase that, or either a) hope the actual death rate is closer to 0.3% or b) have no more than some 30 million infections this year.



 

 

 

 

 

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jason1637 on 13 March 2020

Family friend and her daughter just tested positive.



gergroy on 13 March 2020
John2290 said:
gergroy said:
Schools just closed in Utah. I have to figure out how to teach online for the next few weeks at least. Also, the freaking grocery stores are empty. I have never seen a hysteria like this outside of the movies. This is freaking crazy!

Yep, we are in a zombie apocalypse film without the zombies. No fun if you ask me. No fun at all. ;)

Yeah, except all the zombies have a cough instead of eating people...



Pyro as Bill on 13 March 2020

I don't see how this gets contained long term without taking the South Korean approach and/or isolating the vulnerable while the rest of us catch it on purpose. Even if a country contains it, it's only a matter of time before the planes start flying and a few asymptomatic super spreaders or some dedicated jihadi/psycho start the whole thing again.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

EricHiggin on 13 March 2020
padib said:
Torillian said:
Our local public schools in Ann Arbor Michigan have closed for the next three weeks and the university has switched to online courses for the rest of the semester. We've only had two cases in the state so I'm surprised the public schools acted so quickly, I was expecting them to wait it out another week.

Someday I'd be really interested to talk to an expert on this particular virus and find out what about it made everyone take action so drastically. This is a much more notable reaction than I think the world has ever had for a single disease. Perhaps that's just because we have so much more information than we've ever had before, travel is easier than ever, or is this specific virus so much worse than Ebola or previous SARS strains that it required this level of response even if all other things were equal.

It's interesting to me too. I believe the reason for the intense reaction is the realization of the contagion rate and the limits of the health system, and return from spring break (where people tend to travel, which could lead to greater contagion).

Here is an interesting article comparing the COVID-19 to the seasonal flu:

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The problem with the COVID-19 is that it's highly contagious, and the other problem is that we don't have the tools yet to cure it. It leads to health systems hitting a wall. For example, in Italy, people over a certain age are being refused respiratory systems because the young are being prioritized.

In my opinion, the realization of these two things, with the return from spring break, is making people act fast.

Here in Quebec, while the Federal government has been slow to act, the provincial government has taken action this week to close schools and ask that people work from home as much as possible.
SvennoJ said:
Torillian said:
Our local public schools in Ann Arbor Michigan have closed for the next three weeks and the university has switched to online courses for the rest of the semester. We've only had two cases in the state so I'm surprised the public schools acted so quickly, I was expecting them to wait it out another week.

Someday I'd be really interested to talk to an expert on this particular virus and find out what about it made everyone take action so drastically. This is a much more notable reaction than I think the world has ever had for a single disease. Perhaps that's just because we have so much more information than we've ever had before, travel is easier than ever, or is this specific virus so much worse than Ebola or previous SARS strains that it required this level of response even if all other things were equal.

It's the smart thing to do looking at how fast it got out of hand in Italy. With the long incubation period, initial mild flu like symptoms and average 1.2x daily growth rate of cases, by the time you detect the first cases (sick enough to go in) there could be many more already. Then a week later all those yet undetected cases have quadrupled already.

Say the first 2 cases detected are the tip of the iceberg, sick enough to go in after a week. Suppose there were already 10 cases at that time. That would mean 40 undetected cases and potentially another 160 a week later. (Added together close to 300 active cases) That's excluding more cases coming back home from other places.

What makes it dangerous is people with mild symptoms spreading the virus on without knowing it.

The flu, swine flu, etc. It's quite apparent and gives you time to react. Doesn't move all that fast.

COVID-19. You didn't see it coming, or not until it was too late. Moves quickly with ease.

They are much more deadly to a weak opponent, and otherwise are just typically passing through on their way to the next victim.

Last edited by EricHiggin - on 13 March 2020

gergroy on 13 March 2020
Pyro as Bill said:
I don't see how this gets contained long term without taking the South Korean approach and/or isolating the vulnerable while the rest of us catch it on purpose. Even if a country contains it, it's only a matter of time before the planes start flying and a few asymptomatic super spreaders or some dedicated jihadi/psycho start the whole thing again.

The important thing is to try and slow the spread more than stopping it.  If everybody all gets sick at the same time then health services would be quickly overrun.  Also, a slow spread would also help group immunities start to kick in that would help slow it even further. In 6 months to a year there should also be a vaccine.  So the more we can slow the spread the better.