Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[EricHiggin]

padib said:

Torillian said:
Our local public schools in Ann Arbor Michigan have closed for the next three weeks and the university has switched to online courses for the rest of the semester. We've only had two cases in the state so I'm surprised the public schools acted so quickly, I was expecting them to wait it out another week.

Someday I'd be really interested to talk to an expert on this particular virus and find out what about it made everyone take action so drastically. This is a much more notable reaction than I think the world has ever had for a single disease. Perhaps that's just because we have so much more information than we've ever had before, travel is easier than ever, or is this specific virus so much worse than Ebola or previous SARS strains that it required this level of response even if all other things were equal.

It's interesting to me too. I believe the reason for the intense reaction is the realization of the contagion rate and the limits of the health system, and return from spring break (where people tend to travel, which could lead to greater contagion).

Here is an interesting article comparing the COVID-19 to the seasonal flu:

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The problem with the COVID-19 is that it's highly contagious, and the other problem is that we don't have the tools yet to cure it. It leads to health systems hitting a wall. For example, in Italy, people over a certain age are being refused respiratory systems because the young are being prioritized.

In my opinion, the realization of these two things, with the return from spring break, is making people act fast.

Here in Quebec, while the Federal government has been slow to act, the provincial government has taken action this week to close schools and ask that people work from home as much as possible.

SvennoJ said:

Torillian said:
Our local public schools in Ann Arbor Michigan have closed for the next three weeks and the university has switched to online courses for the rest of the semester. We've only had two cases in the state so I'm surprised the public schools acted so quickly, I was expecting them to wait it out another week.

Someday I'd be really interested to talk to an expert on this particular virus and find out what about it made everyone take action so drastically. This is a much more notable reaction than I think the world has ever had for a single disease. Perhaps that's just because we have so much more information than we've ever had before, travel is easier than ever, or is this specific virus so much worse than Ebola or previous SARS strains that it required this level of response even if all other things were equal.

It's the smart thing to do looking at how fast it got out of hand in Italy. With the long incubation period, initial mild flu like symptoms and average 1.2x daily growth rate of cases, by the time you detect the first cases (sick enough to go in) there could be many more already. Then a week later all those yet undetected cases have quadrupled already.

Say the first 2 cases detected are the tip of the iceberg, sick enough to go in after a week. Suppose there were already 10 cases at that time. That would mean 40 undetected cases and potentially another 160 a week later. (Added together close to 300 active cases) That's excluding more cases coming back home from other places.

What makes it dangerous is people with mild symptoms spreading the virus on without knowing it.

The flu, swine flu, etc. It's quite apparent and gives you time to react. Doesn't move all that fast.

COVID-19. You didn't see it coming, or not until it was too late. Moves quickly with ease.

They are much more deadly to a weak opponent, and otherwise are just typically passing through on their way to the next victim.

Last edited by EricHiggin - on 13 March 2020