Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[haxxiy]

John2290 said:

SvennoJ said:

And what is the time frame on these deaths and how many whitin the intital spike? Any info there?

It's probably similar to this:

Except that the 480,000 deaths scenario has 96 million infections, instead of 100 million total in the graph above, and a death rate of 0.5%. Other predictions have up to 214 million cases. All of this, of course, if containment measures aren't taken.

The graph above also estimates a peak of 366,000 ICU beds being needed sometime after the peak of the infection (around August). There will be only 95,000 available. So, ideally, you would want to drastically increase that, or either a) hope the actual death rate is closer to 0.3% or b) have no more than some 30 million infections this year.