Parts of Lake Tahoe are currently closed due to an outbreak of the plague in Chipmunks. Treatable with antibiotics nowadays, yet these old pandemics are still around. No hope for getting rid of Covid-19. Might be good to direct focus to treatment and cures after vaccination reaches most people.

Yep... too early to think virus is gone away.

USA had 113,000 new daily cases of covid yesterday.
Deaths due to covid hit ~660.

Now, it takes like a 3 weeks from getting ill, to dieing.
3 weeks ago, the US was at 39,000 daily cases (yesterday it was at 113k new daily cases).

3 weeks from now, deaths will reach like ~1900-2000 pr day, in the US.
New cases are spikeing too, it likely wont end at 113k daily cases.

Alot of other places its climbing too (infections) (even here in a small country like denmark, due to the delta variant).

Vaccinations are everything.
Thankfully denmark is on a really good path ( 57.1% fully vaccinated, and over 73% have had atleast 1 jab).
(not many countries have 73% getting atleast 1 vaccine shot)

The importance of control groups in the light of observational data!

The latest data from Israel suggests recent Covid cases are 53% fully vax, 44% unvax, 2% partly vax, 1% convalescent unvax, ~ 0% convalescent vax. Adjusted for their proportions in the overall population, you get something like:

Fully vaccinated 54.6% risk reduction (vs. unvaccinated people who did not have the disease)
Partially vaccinated 78.4% RR
Convalescent unvaccinated 91.8% RR
Convalescent vaccinated 100% RR

That would suggest, on its own, the partly vax are twice as protected as the fully vax! True, most of these are young adults and teenagers to whom a single dose will be very effective, but still, that suggests the fully vax are still overrepresented due to the high vaccination rates in the locations the current outbreak began. If they are twofold overrepresented (just as an example), true VE would be around 77.3%, not 54.6%.

How long until the flip flop

Last month, Ontario Premier Doug Ford ruled out the possibility of a vaccine passport for the province.
“The answer is no, we're not going to do it,” he told reporters on July 15. “We're not going have a split society.”


Quebec just announced they're going to implement a vaccine passport, may prevent unvaccinated from entering non essential businesses.


The new school rules are baffling. If you're 12 or older and unvaccinated, you will be send home for minimum 10 days when a Covid case turns up at school. Then require two false tests to come back. If you're under 12 you get to stay. So in the same class, some kids might be send home while other unvaccinated kids can stay.

Weekly update, steady climb in cases

In total 4.39 million new cases were reported last week (up from 3.95 million) to a total of 202,356,491
Also another 66,159 more deaths were reported last week (up from 63,782) for a total of 4,289,636

Europe is reigning it in a bit, USA is on a fast upward trajectory

The continents

Asia reported 1.86 million new cases (up from 1.73 million) and 31,732 more deaths (up from 29,164)
North America reported 1.01 million new cases (up from 628K) and 8,375 more deaths (up from 6,171)
Europe reported 838K new cases (down from 863K) and 7,946 more deaths (slightly up from 7,326)
South America reported 404K new cases (down from 450K) and 11,377 more deaths (down from 14,218)
Africa reported 275K new cases (276K last week) and 6,653 deaths (slightly down from 6,832)
Oceania reported 11.5K new cases (up from 8,858) and 76 deaths (71 last week)

Corners of the world

USA reported 759K new cases (up from 405K) and 3,577 more deaths (up from 2,406)
India reported 282K new cases (282K last week) and 3,559 more deaths (slightly down from 3,804)
Iran reported 242K new cases (up from 206K) and 2,742 more deaths (up from 2,071)
Brazil reported 228K new cases (down from 248K) and 6,295 more deaths (down from 7,092)
Japan reported 83.0K new cases (up from 44.9K) and 67 deaths (67 last week)
South Africa reported 76.1K new cases (slightly down from 79.0K) and 2,673 more deaths (2,604 last week)
South Korea reported 10.6K new cases (slightly down from 11.1K) and 24 deaths (23 last week)
Canada reported 7,412 new cases (up from 4,587) and 65 deaths (50 last week)
Australia reported 1,779 new cases (up from 1,327) and 10 deaths (7 last week)

Europe in detail

The big sprint is over, yet a steady climb remains

Got my second shot of Moderna yesterday and last night I got the full package of side effects! I had a fever, my arms and legs did hurt pretty bad, my stomach hurt and I was very tired all day long although I slept for like 11 hours.

But anyway, all this stuff will go away eventually, so no regrets.

Yes i am worried about Delta Varient i have had my 1st Pfizer on 28th July at 5:14 pm , so 18th August is my 2nd dose.

For those vaccinated, the Delta Variant can still be present in your body even after being fully vaccinated (1 min into video)

Even though protected from the symptoms you can still pass on the Delta variant to others, when vaccinated it is important to wear a mask and social distance when around the unvaccinated 

From a medical science view on what we currently understand about the Delta variant 

The vaccines were never sold on their ability to prevent transmission, no solid numbers were present when vaccines were sold and pharmaceuticals only touted how their vaccines is X% effective at preventing symptomatic illness, obviously, this was never explained properly which ended up causing a lot of confusion and mistrust as well. The "science" community has handled lots of things improperly to be honest which left the door open to good faith skeptics and bad faith skeptics to misinterpret what's going on. 

It's not just the delta variant that will continue to transmit among the vaccinated, all variants will do at varying degrees, and once everyone is vaccinated, the variants that will continue to float around are the the ones that are more effective at finding their way among the vaccinated like the Delta, which is FINE. The ultimate goal should be to bring hospitalisations down to a manageable and prevent severe illness, the human immunity will handle the rest the best it can do. I'd say all countries should open up once you vaccinate adults. Otherwise, we're setting ourselves up for terrible flu seasons and terrible X seasons and we'd be chasing mirage. 

Edit: great video btw!

is it figured out at all why mRNA vaccines cause myocarditis? Lots of people get mild myocarditis throughout their lives without even knowing they had one (we now that because some of those present years later with cardiomyopathy that is put down to a previous viral infection). While AZ is the Russian vaccines are great, it is expected (theoretically) that they will generate weaker and weaker responses because the body will attack the adenovirus that carries the spike proteins before the body gets to mount any measurable immune response to the spike protein, leaving the mRNA vaccines as much better candidates to be the "booster" vaccines. But if everyone is going to get it yearly, it is important to get figure out why myocarditis happen or we (theoretically) may end up with a good number of patients with bad hearts because of the vaccines.