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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

SvennoJ said:
Comparable to the flu again?

CDC estimates about 56,000 Americans die from the flu each year. Covid-19 already claimed over 219,000 lives in the USA, that with maybe 10% infected.

The highest estimate for Flu world wide seems to be 650K
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
Worldwide over 1 million have already died from Covid-19 while only 10% (might) have had it.

Overall CFR is very comparably with 0.15% (probably higher in the beginning) but Covid deaths are extremely clustered with many countries never having a first wave to begin with. Most European countries (in particular Eastern Europe), many Asian countries, most of Africa etc. never had any visible excess mortality. The US itself was extremely clustered with NYC being a massive center while many of the smaller states had quite low deaths per million. Example:

Vermont: 93 deaths per million

NJ/NYC: 1838 deaths per million

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Last edited by numberwang - on 14 October 2020

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https://www.wpr.org/covid-19-field-hospital-wisconsin-state-fair-park-opens-wednesday
Wisconsin now opening up a feild hospital. Cases in this State is goimg crazy. Probably the worst hit state currently.



numberwang said:
Mnementh said:

You can't use a guesstimate for cases and compare it to confirmed deaths. You would also have to guesstimate deaths. We know about Bergamo at least, that only about one fourth of deaths reached official statistics. That may be similar in other regions. The real number of deaths is higher than 1M.

Covid deaths are probably overestimated considering the inflated method of counting every deaths with a positive pcr test regardless of underlying conditions. Many countries have too many 'covid deaths' with not enough total excess mortality as a match. Total global infections is based on antibody tests and should be quite reliable.

The US is again predicted to be back at baseline total mortality (graph ends October 3) even though we still have many 'covid involved death' papers.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Any source for the "too many covid deaths with not enough total excess mortality as a match"? The graph you posted clearly shows noticeably elevated deaths still and that is with all other causes of death being down due to COVID measures.

Not sure what point you're trying to make here but even without testing results the excess deaths show clearly that COVID is many times more deadly than the flu and that is WITH unprecedented measures to combat it.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Gonna be fun to have a vaccine. Before we're done giving a shot to everyone the first people will already need boosters.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

vivster said:
numberwang said:

Covid deaths are probably overestimated considering the inflated method of counting every deaths with a positive pcr test regardless of underlying conditions. Many countries have too many 'covid deaths' with not enough total excess mortality as a match. Total global infections is based on antibody tests and should be quite reliable.

The US is again predicted to be back at baseline total mortality (graph ends October 3) even though we still have many 'covid involved death' papers.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Any source for the "too many covid deaths with not enough total excess mortality as a match"? The graph you posted clearly shows noticeably elevated deaths still and that is with all other causes of death being down due to COVID measures.

Not sure what point you're trying to make here but even without testing results the excess deaths show clearly that COVID is many times more deadly than the flu and that is WITH unprecedented measures to combat it.

I am talking about the countries mentioned before (for example in central and northern Europe and nearly all of Eastern Europe) with fewer deaths in 2020 compared to previous years while producing covid deaths certificates.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#

This database contains some more countries (like Eastern Europe):

https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/

Last edited by numberwang - on 15 October 2020

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The US did indeed have a large covid spike and we can look at the reasons. NYC became a total disaster when Governor Cuomo forced covid patients into nursing homes with his executive order. A lot of people where killed by their government through malpractices like this (I believe something similar happened in Bergamo, Italy). NJ and to a lesser extent Connecticut had similar spikes that created the majority of the first US spike.

https://nypost.com/2020/07/08/cuomo-sent-6300-covid-19-patients-to-nursing-homes-amid-pandemic/

Cuomo is now praised by the media bubble for his handling of the crisis and some people believe it.

Last edited by numberwang - on 15 October 2020

I also have no clue what you're trying to get at. People (still) die from Covid-19 and its complications despite the extraordinary measures. Those measures also help prevent other diseases and accidents, lowering the base death rate, which gets filled back up with Covid-19 deaths. For some countries anyway, look at Russia and deaths are rising again in lock step with cases.

The reasons for the early spike is simple, it was a new thing, unknown disease, unknown how it spread, unknown how infectious it really was, unknown who was most at risk. Guomo did not force covid patients into nursing homes, at least not directly. A smililar thing did not happen in Italy. Covid-19 escalated there because it hit there first, Italy has one of the oldest populations and thus most vulnerable plus culturally families are closely knit together in Italy. In fact when schools closed, grand parents jumped in to look after the kids while the parents still worked, escalating the problem.

Thanks to all the current measures and extra protection for the elderly the death rate atm is much lower than it would be without. You can't say CFR is comparable to the flu since the current sample is heavily biased to those that have a much better chance at surviving. The at risk population is staying out of the way, but how long can they stay safe while cases keep rising all around.



numberwang said:

I am talking about the countries mentioned before (for example in central and northern Europe and nearly all of Eastern Europe) with fewer deaths in 2020 compared to previous years while producing covid deaths certificates.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#

This database contains some more countries (like Eastern Europe):

https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/

Nice cherry-picking. And even then, you should have looked the stats more closely, because there is an excess if you zoom in into 2020 in all those countries. It's just very small and not enough to significantly alter the statistics so far.

But let's have a look at the weekly stat across Europe, shall we:

One can clearly see the spike from spring here. And the reason why the number of deaths isn't significantly higher than the previous years: We had a very low number of deaths in winter because a very mild winter this year in Europe, even milder than last year (it was snowing a grand total of one day here for instance - and that melted by the evening already), and thus the flu, pneumonia and similar diseases weren't very deadly. Without Covid, we would actually have a record low number of deaths instead of a somewhat elevated one. But let's have a look at exhibit number 2:

See how Europe was lagging behind the previous years until Covid hit us and put the year into the top spot within a coule weeks? Also, see how the leads keeps growing slightly since week 30 while the other years stay flat? That's the ongoing Covid deaths right there!

A good way you can see that Covid is the culprit of these deaths is by looking at the age groups. Children deaths actually dropped below the baseline this year:

Compare this with older age groups, as in 45 and up, and you can clearly see how those got more and more affected by covid the older they were:

Long story short, a weak winter and flu season blurred the number by having a record low number of deaths prior to Covid. But at closer inspection, no country got spared from it's effects - just some got hit a bit more than others.



Edit: Sorry, Double post, don't know what happened here

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 15 October 2020

The WHO just published updated overall IFR (the true CFR including all unknown cases) estimations by John Ioannidis, one of the most cited scholars in the world.

Overall CFR = 0.23% (like a severe flu wave)
CFR under 70 years: 0.05%



https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

I would agree "with the science" and add that the CFR will continue to drop over time with increasing herd immunity, better medication and the avoidance of early mistakes like sending infected into nursing homes, lung intubation or lock-down fiascos.

Last edited by numberwang - on 15 October 2020